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To: Travis McGee
From what I’ve gleaned, the death rate is under 2% if a patient has access to 1st world ICU level treatment

That appears to be a generally sound opinion (although the illness plays out over 21 days, with a lot of fatalities in Week 3), so it's a bit premature.

The problem is, there is essentially no surge capacity for that level of care.

Japan has been very generous to take 140 people off that ship and put them in what amounts to BL3 isolation - but they could not, and should not be asked, to do that for 4000 people. That would crash their care system, denying care to many other people with equally serious needs.

I like the island idea. There are going to need to be large, open air quarantine facilities all over the world, I agree that keeping 3500 passengers on that ship is brutal, but as of this morning, all the alternatives, including sinking the ship in international waters, are worse.

If true mortality is 2% and the virus spreads worldwide as it has in China, ICU care will not be made available to people in quarantine/isolation, because it will be impossible to do.

19 posted on 02/11/2020 6:11:17 AM PST by Jim Noble (There is nothing racist in stating plainly what most people already know)
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To: Jim Noble

Can we volunteer the House Chambers? /ba-dum t’sssh>


23 posted on 02/11/2020 6:26:31 AM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: Jim Noble

Re: 19 - Thanks for the comments, here and elsewhere on this topic. It provides a good counter to the nutty garbage that some people are posting.


26 posted on 02/11/2020 6:28:45 AM PST by Fury
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To: Jim Noble; Dark Wing; 2ndreconmarine; 21twelve; 444Flyer; AAABEST; A.Hun; Alamo-Girl; ...
Infectious Disease - Wuhan - analysis of medical care being overwhelmed

Jim Noble :" That appears to be a generally sound opinion
(although the illness plays out over 21 days,with a lot of fatalities in Week 3),
so it's a bit premature."

"The problem is, there is essentially no surge capacity for that level of care."

"If true mortality is 2% and the virus spreads worldwide as it has in China,
ICU care will not be made available to people in quarantine/isolation,
because it will be impossible to do."
(Emphasis mine)

HT to Jim and Dark Wing !

49 posted on 02/11/2020 7:13:14 AM PST by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: Jim Noble
.. all the alternatives, including sinking the ship in international waters, are worse.

Yikes .. with or without passengers ?
Someone actually suggested this ?

58 posted on 02/11/2020 7:29:01 AM PST by tomkat
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