Posted on 02/11/2020 5:21:10 AM PST by TigerClaws
The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the world’s population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist.
His warning came after the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said recent cases of coronavirus patients who had never visited China could be the “tip of the iceberg”.
Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, said the overriding question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg. Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an “attack rate” of 60-80%.
“Sixty per cent of the world’s population is an awfully big number,” Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva on Tuesday.
Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%, which Leung thinks is possible once milder cases are taken into account, the death toll would be massive.
He will tell the WHO meeting that the main issue is the scale of the growing worldwide epidemic and the second priority is to find out whether the drastic measures taken by China to prevent the spread have worked – because if so, other countries should think about adopting them.
The Geneva meeting brings together more than 400 researchers and national authorities, including some participating by video conference from mainland China and Taiwan. “With 99% of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” the WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in his opening remarks. To date China has reported 42,708 confirmed cases, including 1,017 deaths, Tedros said.
(Excerpt) Read more at theguardian.com ...
The water is going to be at your ankles before you realize everyone has left the ship.
You don’t want to know from nuthin’. And yet...here you are on every thread.
They are keeping a vast majority of the cases on the cruise ship. They haven’t brought many ashore, and they are doing that to protect their own people.
“But once a medical system is overwhelmed, as in China, all bets are off, and the death rate could go to 20%.”
Oh, and thanks for all that you have done - in the service and since you started writing and posting for the general public. Wish we had many more like you.
“Another article designed to scare people.”
Sooner or later, we ARE going to face a huge pandemic. This time and this virus may not be it (and I certainly hope and pray that it isn’t), but being complacent ups the odds, because then people don’t take easy and simple steps to avoid the transmission of the disease, like washing one’s hands more frequently than usual. That one thing alone will cut the rate of infection dramatically...but not if you’re complacent and tell people “There’s nothing to look at here, keep moving.”
Sure, but the efficiency of the filters drops as the size of any passing particles is reduced. And as for mixing in air, I don't know if they do partial recirculation (as on a plane) to conserve energy in air conditioning/heating, or whether the air is all taken from the outside and cycled through the rooms once. I could imagine either solution, but that's not knowledge on my part.
This Model 5000 unit combines an electrostatic filter and a non-woven deep-pleated paper filter (very unlike your typical furnace fiberglass filter).
Even so, no filter traps 100% of all airborne particles. This unit captures 98% of airborne bacteria-sized particles and fungi; 80% of airborne virus-sized particles and ultra-fine particles — down to 0.01 micron in size and 99% of airborne pollen, mold, and spore-sized particles less than a micron in size.
Good points...when you see the PPE they are using in China (either in the official pics or leaked pics) it’s no small potatoes, 3 layers gloves, etc, I hope our ERs and GP are prepared with that kind of protection if cases start showing up.
And what kind of screening is there so they don’t think they are just flu patients? Some Coronavirus patients tested positive for both. Asking about China travel was helpful early. Asking about any travel is probably more prudent now. Even that could become obsolete at the where there are secondary cases. Are patients going to show up like the health person in NY suggested or call ahead? And then there’s the false negative where everyone let’s their guard down, and they they come back positive.
My concern is healthcare workers here being exposed before they even realize what they are dealing with. That could overwhelm the system pretty quickly. Hopefully there’s a lot of informing and preparing going on.
“The bottom line is that God is in control. All the yelling and worrying won’t change that.”
You want to invoke God in this thing. OK, I’m game.
You ever hear the phrase “God helps those who help themselves”? Well, it is Biblically based. The Sea of Reeds (NOT the Red Sea) didn’t split just because Moses lifted his staff (like in the Charleton Heston movie), but because one Nachshon ben Aminadav went into the sea up to his neck in a display of not just faith, but of doing everything that he, as a mere human, could do. https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/2199147/jewish/Nachshon-ben-Aminadav-The-Man-Who-Jumped-Into-the-Sea.htm Sitting around on a couch and praying for a miracle isn’t going to get you one - God only grants those to people/societies that deserve them, and not a small part of that is that said person or society has done all that they could to help themselves.
That said, I’m not going around with my hair on fire, claiming that The End is Nigh. Sooner or later we’re GOING to have a massive and highly lethal pandemic - but it isn’t necessarily going to be THIS time and THIS virus. But we’d be rather stupid if we were complacent and didn’t take common sense precautions like washing hands frequently, quarantining people coming from areas known to have the corona virus, and researching this disease like crazy to find either a vaccine or a cure. Being complacent and, worse, making fun of those trying to introduce some “common sense disease control” (which, unlike gun control, I’m in favor of) into our world isn’t very smart.
“re: “On par with the Spanish flu”
What was the state of “germ theory” in that era?”
Going around with one’s hair on fire isn’t very smart or productive. But neither is being complacent about this thing or, worse, effectively making others be complacent by the use of dismissive contempt for every post that talks about the **potential** of this (or any other) disease to wreak havoc. There is a balanced, logical, medically-sensible approach to take here, and while those with their hair on fire aren’t doing that, neither are you.
It is likely that BOTH infections AND mortality are being underreported (probably infections to a greater extent). What does that mean? Well, the disease is far more communicable than generally thought (the common cold is a corona virus - people usually get at least one per year, and what does THAT tell you?), but it is probably not lethal to large percentages of people until/unless a medical system is overwhelmed. Bottom line, MANY more people could be infected, so even if the mortality rate is lower than some think (i.e. let’s assume for the moment that is actually IS at about 2%), that is still a massive number and will result in massive effects (not the least of which is a severe economic slowdown as fearful people stay home). IOW, this is no joke.
Another article designed to scare people.
Why “I’m not buying masks, I’m buying disposable booties” - as opposed to masks and frequent hand washing (especially after putting on/taking off one’s footware?
Another article designed to scare people.
Plus, the incubation period up to 24 days. They’ve already had a guy released from quarantine only to find out he was infected.
China is desperately locking people into their homes who are infected:
A medical provider / professional posted this here on FR:
CORONO TREATMENT
This bug causes a ‘cytokine storm’, like the Spanish Flu did. It will kill healthy young people as well. With a quickness.
From what I understand, the Spanish Flu (and by extension the new A-H1N1 variant) kills by provoking an immune system hyper-response, sometimes called the “Cytokine Storm” which severely damages the lungs and causes Acute Respiratory Distress (ARD) resulting in oxygen deprivation to the internal organs.
Here is an over the counter (OTC) formula that inhibits some of the major inflammatory mediators, and is now being suggested as a way to stave off ARD. All four factors must be included.
1a) A prescription ACE-2 inhibitor anti-hypertension drug. (Note: Healthy folks w/normal BP would experience a crash in BP, fainting, et al. Those already on other types of BP lowering meds would experience the same.)
-or-
1b) If unavailable, 15,000 IU of Vitamin D (Note: 15,000 IU is a huge dose of Vitamin D, a fat soluble vitamin. This means excess Vitamin D is stored in the liver, rather being excreted. The half life of Vitamin D is roughly three weeks, and Vitamin D toxicity can cause serious problems)
2) Histamine-1 blocker. Benedryl or the equivalent.
3) Histamine-2 blocker. Tagamet or the equivalent (normally used to block acid reflux.)
4) Ibuprofen. Advil or the equivalent, a prostaglandin blocker.
In addition, it is also recommended to maintain just the MDAR of Vitamin A. Being short of Vitamin A is associated with having an excess of a very powerful inflammatory mediator called TNF-1. But it is easy to take too much Vitamin A, which is toxic. High doses of the provitamin Beta-carotene, which the body converts to Vitamin A, might work as well as straight Vitamin A, and are much less toxic.
Care should be taken to avoid “health foods” that can artificially enhance the immune system, something to be avoided when there is the prospect of ARD.
This was extracted from an earlier thread I’ve lost track of, with some comments on Vitamin D from NautiNurse, and on ACE-2 inhibitors from reformedliberal added, and a flat out guess on Beta Carotene from me...
PA Engineer added:
N-Acetylcysteine (NAC) is also well documented. I’ll post some of the studies later.
on 01/27/2020
And what if if doesn’t?
I read that Vitamin C can help here, even though it stimulates the immune system it also reduces inflammation and oxidation damage
And yet...here you are to calm everyone down.
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
You are like the people who go on the Oscar threads and post that there hasn’t been a good movie since the Sands of Iwo Jima. You add nothing, and you do not even make an opposing opinion.
You are like the old guy at the party who does nothing but sit, fart, and complain there is no rye bread to go with the kapusta.
“Minor illnesses where the person recovers? We have no idea.”
FYI, I am 58 and have been to the hospital twice - once when I was born, and I objected to most of the treatment :>) The second time was when I had my wisdom teeth out (and that was for about 4 hours). I have had the flu probably 6 or 8 times, and NEVER went to a doc, clinic or hospital for it. There is NO question in my mind that this corona virus is WAY under-reported, and I would say that even if I believed every word that the lying Communist sacks of schiff in China told us (and you might have picked up on me being just a tad bit distrustful of their honesty).
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