Posted on 01/22/2020 5:57:35 AM PST by Kaslin
The Iranian regime and its proxies are not finished avenging the death of Qassem Soleimani. In predicting their next move, the United States would be wise to consider the religious inspiration for their military strategy.
Iranian action is often viewed through the lens of rational self-interest. Stratfor’s Scott Steward called Iran’s main proxy in Hezbollah a “radical but rational” organization. Others believe the Iranian regime is a practical government concerned with typical things that affect their power and the material interests of their benefactors in Russia and China. That’s a mistake. They may employ logical tactics but they are ultimately inspired by religious dogma.
Listen to them. The Supreme Leader of the Iranian theocracy, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in 2012 that they must “prepare the environment”—make war—for the “reappearance” of “Imam Mahdi,” known as the 12th Imam. In Shia eschatology, the Mahdi returns to achieve global Islamic domination. Eight years ago was the last time Khamenei made such a notable public statement—until he led Friday prayers in Tehran on January 17 and leveled threats against the United States and Europe.
For Islamists, warfare is one of the most important avenues for religious self-expression. The regime named its air defense system Bavar 373—Bavar means to “believe” and the number corresponds to name of their prophet in the Arabic alphabet.
Timing matters for this devout administration. Religious doctrine determined military action against U.S. bases in Iraq. The rocket attacks commenced at roughly the same hour as Soleimani’s “martyrdom” and only after the religiously prescribed three days of mourning.
Religious self-expression in warfare also affords the Iranian government room to rationalize inhumane action. I argued in a recent interview that Iran might retaliate for the death of Soleimani by attacking a soft target specifically chosen to lead others to blame the United States. I was wrong in one detail: I did not think its revenge would be “accidental.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif quickly called Iran’s downing of a Ukrainian airliner the result of “U.S. adventurism.” Others played right into their hands. Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, among others, laid ultimate blame at the feet of the United States. One CNN analyst called it the result of America’s “reckless escalation.” A Washington Post writer said it was an unfortunate response from a “jumpy” Iran spurred on by U.S. rhetoric.
We must recognize that religiosity is central to their military strategy. Considering their future moves from the standpoint of religious self-expression would help to anticipate their action as it relates to location and timing. Notable dates on the Western calendar—specifically significant to Shia sects, or Islam generally – could be of interest in setting future action:
The Battle of Hattin in the year 1187 saw Saladin break the Crusaders stronghold over Jerusalem and paved the way for its recapture by Islamic forces. Although an especially Sunni war, the historic victory reminds Iran’s Shia leadership of the territory their generation lost to the Jewish state. The date of the Battle of Hattin is no less ironic: July 4th.
Not an exhaustive list, nor an exact science. But rest assured, the regime’s plans for revenge will be executed with symbolic timing and with elements of religious self-expression designed to rationalize even the most inhumane actions. We would be well advised to appreciate it.
Dr. David Grantham is a Senior Fellow with Center for a Secure Free Society, holds a PhD in history from Texas Christian University and holds a Master of Science in International Relations from Troy University. Grantham is a veteran, having served in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
We don’t need to Anticipate Anything, we just need to Waterboard and Interrogate their Best Friend John Kerry, who served in Vietnam.
Trump’s got this.
Yep and I think the 6 Nuke capable B52s Trump has sent over there let them know what our next move will be should they do another move.
Dilbert author Scott Adams narrows it down to whether they’re smart or crazy. I know for sure you can be both. Therefore the only choice is, how do you ensure the safety of both the world & the Iranian people. After that it’s easy.
Nice ally we got there.
I don’t get your post. Is that sarcasm? You know the Guardian is a left wing newspaper, don’t you??
I know what the Guardian is. I read it while considering the source.
The UK is attempting to funnel money to Iran. And this isn’t the first time.
I think that’s newsworthy, don’t you?
And, yes, the nice ally we got there crack was indeed sarcasm.
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