The Electric Car Fantasy: Schumer’s ambitious proposal bucks basic economics—and science.

City Journal ^ | October 30, 2019 | Mark P. Mills

[karpov]

New York Senator Chuck Schumer has promised that if Democrats win the Senate in 2020, they’ll pass a law requiring that every car in America be electric by 2040. Chinese policymakers must be celebrating, because China makes the majority of the world’s batteries and has the most new battery factories under construction. The Chinese will need someone to buy all those batteries. This past summer, when China abandoned subsidies for electric vehicles (EVs), sales collapsed. China’s plan now is to require automakers to produce EVs, but at a paltry 3 percent to 4 percent of output. Perhaps Beijing will ultimately increase the allocation, but truly revolutionary technologies never require governments to order their adoption. As for Schumer’s plan, it will fail on every front—including saving China’s battery industry.

Let’s start with what consumers want. SUVs and pickups now account for 70 percent of all vehicles purchased. Most people, it seems, like big vehicles. The minority who buy purely for economy choose small cars with gasoline engines. This option, by the way, puts less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than a Tesla.

Consumers are price-sensitive in every category, a reality that politicians ignore at their peril. Batteries add about $12,000 to the cost of small and midsize cars. That’s meaningful for all consumers but the 1 percent. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, automobiles constitute the most expensive category of consumables for the average household, costing twice that of health care. (Housing is the biggest expense, but that’s not a consumable.) A recent McKinsey analysis suggests that automakers could “decontent” EVs to cut costs—that is, take out the extra features that every salesman knows are what sells cars.

[Paladin2]

Indeed, Indeed...

[Paladin2]

"I’m still waiting for the flying cars."

Yeah, those and my unmetered Nuke-lee-are Power...

[Haddit]

Sebastian Thrun, Kitty Hawk’s CEO talkes about electric flight.
https://youtu.be/AqpFtXyhgLA
Kitty Hawk’s project Heaviside.
https://youtu.be/q7mc3C19kE4
Here is China’s EHang.
https://youtu.be/7RjstNDRuCQ
Here is Steve Hanvey talking about his Hydrogen/electric powered flying vehicle the Skai.
https://youtu.be/HdLX1e5uVqc
Hanvey believes he can have the Skai FAA certified by the end of 2020.
It has a range of 400 miles and remain airborne for 4 hours.
It can accommodate 5 passengers.
The German designed Lilium jet has 36 electric jets.
Seats 5.
And can travel 183 miles at 183 mph.
https://youtu.be/9_T2Cup0ybo

[Paladin2]

I’ll have to read those links tomorrow.

Sounds like he has changed his thrun wrt mobility devices...

[EVO X]

Still, I’m not wholly convinced. What are the mechanical savings on an EV? Is there less to break down?

That is one of the selling points. Ev's have less moving parts.

What does it cost to service?

In theory, less until a battery needs to be replaced.

but in general And what is the useful life of the batteries before they must be replaced?

That depends on the climate the car operates in and how aggressively the car is charged. You have to read the fine print on the OEM warranty.