[LS]

I haven't confirmed this, but if this is correct:

1) It has been my position all along that TRUMP is doing much better with blacks than Rs as a whole; that Trump would get 15% of the black vote but, generically, Rs would not this time around; and that 3-5% more blacks would stay home.

2) If this is correct, it means that blacks have already started shifting from just "backing Trump" to backing Rs generically; that they are doing so at the HIGHER levels of Trump approval (the margin has been 16%-26% for two years); and that Trump can expect even more than this (say, 28-30%).

3) Black turnout is up, so it may mean that I was wrong in thinking that a large number will also stay home. It appears they have taken the extra step.

[reasonisfaith]

Trump could win every state.

[deport]

3934 of 3934 precincts reporting - 100%
absentee reporting - 100% Votes

317,149 Ralph Abraham (REP) 24%
. 10,993 Oscar “Omar” Dantzler (DEM) 1%
625,970 John Bel Edwards (DEM) 47%
.10,084 Gary Landrieu (IND) 1%
. 10,966 Patrick “Live Wire” Landry (REP) 1%
368,319 “Eddie” Rispone (REP) 27%
Total: 1,343,481
Unofficial Turnout: 45.3%

https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical

[M Kehoe]

Hi.

One state out of 57, anecdotal.

;^)

5.56mm

[DoodleDawg]

I haven't confirmed this, but if this is correct:

I'm thinking the claim that the black vote was up 291% over 2015 would be enough to question these figures.

[Moe-Patrick]

Some make assertions based on stats, some on feeling or observation.

While I love data and stats, when it comes to politics I focus on human behavior. Obummer was chosen based on being black AND the assumption he would free the blacks. Older blacks wanted payback for slavery, younger blacks wanted jobs. Neither happened even though Obummer hates whites, cops, and christians. Younger blacks we’re disappointed and indifferent. Along comes social media and Trump, blexit and walkaway. In other words, the truth. Also, supporting Trump is no longer a sin as more and more publicly show their support. It took two years but we got there.

How to tell if this has been successful, analyze the reaction of liberal mantra. Colleges allowing segration of blacks, safe spaces, white supremacy hype, and white man bad. They lost younger blacks and are trying to get them back.

This is why I believe younger blacks have abandoned dems because they are trying so hard to get them back. Not data per say but signs of losing support.

While I still prefer stats, in politics emotion plays such a huge role, stats are not enough. And thank you for your work, I always look forward to the data you supply.

[RetiredArmy]

We can hope that our friends who have been used and misled by the communist dimocrats for better than 65 years will finally have woke up and are starting to see that they were used!! And, that they will now start voting for those that actually care about them. Maybe they will start to understand that Dr. Martin Luther King was a REPUBLICAN, AND GIVE CREDIT TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY for the voting rights act and the civil rights acts passed in the 1960s. LBJ NEEDED the republicans to pass these acts that were for the African American members of the USA. The stinking Dimwitcommiecrats lie and get the credit for something that they did not do.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Unfortunately, however, not a single Republican member of the LA legislature, which will be a supermajority for them with the incoming session is Black. The last one to serve was a State Senator, Elbert Guillory, who had to switch to the GOP, and he was promptly succeeded by a Black Dem. Conversely, there’s almost no White Democrats left in the legislature (unless they hail from a Black majority district or a White urban moonbat seat).

Even if Trump gets to 15%+ of the Black vote (not achieved by a GOP Presidential candidate since 1960, when Nixon got between 25-33%), the GOP has got to make inroads with electing Black candidates in marginal seats, and that’s not happening, yet. Sadly, the party doesn’t seem very interested in providing the needed resources to make that a reality: recruiting, supporting w/$$, GOTV, etc.

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

Despite the stereotypes, most of them want to work (there’s just as many whiteys that want to sit around all day and be paid to get drunk/high, too). Obama told them, “There’s no jobs and they’re not coming back!” Trump pulled off the greatest reversal ever. Talk is talk, the blacks saw RESULTS from Trump, not never-ending full-of-crap excuses as to why things are so bad and getting worse while only caring about his next vacation or celebrity event.

[Innovative]

I think they are starting to realize that Trump is giving them real opportunities, while the Dems just want to keep them down and having them still continue to vote for Dems.

[datricker]

The uniparty and the gang banga journalists are so afraid of presidents appeal among black Americans, when he dared to shine the light of truth on Elijah Cumming's Baltimore they couldn't wait for impeachment they went straight to random mass shootings.

President Trump is the only politician who has made an honest attempt to engage blacks - what do you got to lose? I'm betting the president is going to be revisiting that rhetorical question here quite soon.

Blacks are a bellweather for Democrat chances - more more, thinking people are see life is better letting America be America and president Trump hasn't burnt the place down - I'm doing way better then I ever did with Obama. Call me crazy but I think president Trump might actually give a damn about the fate of a black man - weird - once independent thought starts who knows what can happen next.

President Trump is a master of changing hearts and minds - otherwise that team of monkeys wouldn't be burning the chances of keeping the house with a year out from election day.

It's civil war if they impeach him - even with out a senate conviction. They have no idea the fire they play with.

[Oblongata]

It’s not correct, unfortunately.

Here’s the article the OP seems to have gotten his info from:

https://yallpolitics.com/2019/10/14/what-does-the-republican-rout-in-louisiana-mean-for-the-upcoming-mississippi-election/

Here’s the relevant paragraph:

“In the 2015 primary for Governor, 1.14 million (or 39%) turned out to vote. Last night, turnout increased to 45%, for a total turnout of 1.34 million voters. This was a conservative turnout: while 25% of the early vote was black, JMC estimates that due to 35% Election Day turnout in white precincts and 28% Election Day turnout in the black precincts, 27% of last night’s electorate was black. In other words, an estimated total electorate that was 26.5% black, which is on the low side in Louisiana in terms of base Democratic voter intensity”

Blacks simply made up 25% of total turnout. There is nothing that indicates that 25% of Blacks voted GOP.

And in fact, if we go to the polling firm indicated in the article:

https://winwithjmc.com/archives/8815

We find out that exit polls indicate that 91% of Blacks voted for the Democrat Governor.

“Furthermore, JMC estimates that Governor Edwards received 91% of the black vote and 31% of the white vote – respectable numbers, except that black turnout overall wasn’t very strong.”

Misinformation like the OP posted, and people believing it because they want to, with out engaging the critical thinking skills is what loses elections.

DONT GET COCKY.

[NetAddicted]

Bookmarked!

[KTM rider]

No candidate to the right of Stalin will ever again be voted in to office by California because the County Controllers offices in the major population centers are cheating on the votes. I know it for 100% fact, saw it with my own eyes.

I would suspect the same holds true for Oregon ( with mandatory mail in only) and Washington state with extreme liberal controller office appointees

[Political Junkie Too]

Here is the weekly The Economist/YouGov poll of 1,500 Adults generic ballot question.

A poll of "adults" is not my favorite, but this is weekly and the movements are interesting to note.

For this question, the demographic is D+12:

• Party
  • Dem: 37%
  • Ind: 38%
  • Rep: 25%
• Race
  • White: 69%
  • Black: 13%
  • Hispanic: 12%
  • Other: 6%

52. Generic Presidential Vote
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?

	Dem %	Ind %	Rep %	White %	Black %	Hispanic %	Other %
The Democratic Party candidate	87	24	6	38	64	48	26
Donald Trump	4	30	85	42	14	21	32
It depends	4	19	6	9	9	15	19
I would not vote	5	27	2	11	13	17	24

Now, here is the same question from one month ago:

For this question, the demographic is D+10:

• Party
  • Dem: 35%
  • Ind: 40%
  • Rep: 25%
• Race
  • White: 69%
  • Black: 13%
  • Hispanic: 11%
  • Other: 6%

33. Generic Presidential Vote
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?

	Dem %	Ind %	Rep %	White %	Black %	Hispanic %	Other %
The Democratic Party candidate	83	29	6	37	59	39	41
Donald Trump	6	29	84	42	9	26	37
It depends	7	16	7	10	14	13	11
I would not vote	4	26	3	11	17	21	11

Bottom Line

1. Independent support for the generic Democrat candidate fell -5% in the past month.
2. Independent support for President Trump grew +1% in the past month, giving Trump a net +6% lead over the generic Democrat (was tied).
3. Black support for Trump grew +5% in the past month, moving mostly from the "undecideds" and "stay home" voter.
4. Hispanic support for Trump fell by -5%, moving with "stay home" voters towards the Democrats.
5. Asian+ support for Trump fell by -5%, but the Democrats fell by -15%, moving to the "stay home" group.

-PJ

[StAnDeliver]

"3) Black turnout is up, so it may mean that I was wrong in thinking that a large number will also stay home. It appears they have taken the extra step."

No you can have both ends of the hamburger, bro.

Black vote was down in 2016, and at the same time, Trump captured a greater percentage.

[Blood of Tyrants]

The Rats saw this coming decades ago. That is why they want amnesty and instant citizenship for illegal aliens.