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I haven't confirmed this, but if this is correct:

1) It has been my position all along that TRUMP is doing much better with blacks than Rs as a whole; that Trump would get 15% of the black vote but, generically, Rs would not this time around; and that 3-5% more blacks would stay home.

2) If this is correct, it means that blacks have already started shifting from just "backing Trump" to backing Rs generically; that they are doing so at the HIGHER levels of Trump approval (the margin has been 16%-26% for two years); and that Trump can expect even more than this (say, 28-30%).

3) Black turnout is up, so it may mean that I was wrong in thinking that a large number will also stay home. It appears they have taken the extra step.

1 posted on 10/19/2019 6:38:17 AM PDT by LS
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To: LS

I bought into this type hype in 2018. In 2018 it was 100% hype. I’ll believe blacks are leaving the plantation when I see actual 2020 vote tallies reflecting the movement.


2 posted on 10/19/2019 6:43:13 AM PDT by hardspunned
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To: LS

If that is the case, then they must be pulling a significant number of votes from New Orleans and Baton Rouge.


3 posted on 10/19/2019 6:43:25 AM PDT by chris37 (Where's Hunter?)
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To: LS

That’s hard to believe as Bel Edwards received 89% of the vote in Orleans Parish.


4 posted on 10/19/2019 6:44:28 AM PDT by Meatspace
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To: LS

It’s all because Trump fights back. Blacks understand and respect that. They’ve always had to.


5 posted on 10/19/2019 6:44:37 AM PDT by DIRTYSECRET (urope. Why do they put up with this.)
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To: LS

How well does Louisiana black voting patterns map to black voting in the rest of the country?


7 posted on 10/19/2019 6:45:37 AM PDT by Reily
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To: LS

Not seeing it. Jon Bel Edwards got 87% of the vote in Orleans parish.


10 posted on 10/19/2019 6:48:50 AM PDT by dangus
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To: LS

Combined with:

12% have not voted in the last 4 elections &

21.4% Democrat

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3787367/posts


13 posted on 10/19/2019 6:54:56 AM PDT by Drango (1776 = 2020)
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To: LS

I believe Trump received a higher percentage of the black vote than previous Republicans. This is no surprise that with blacks losing jobs to illegals and the black family continuing to disintegrate and black kids getting murdered by each other that they would turn away from liberalism.


14 posted on 10/19/2019 6:55:38 AM PDT by Crucial
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To: LS
Republicans received 25% of the Black vote.

The Rs would be well advised to pitch individual Liberty and prosperity directly and specifically to "blacks". 25% "blacks" voting for Rs would be electoral death for the demonics.

18 posted on 10/19/2019 7:01:01 AM PDT by NorthMountain (... the right of the peopIe to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed)
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To: LS

Another indicator to me is that blacks are attending his rallies in higher numbers, many with “Blacks for Trump” type of sings. Democrats have only promised jobs for jobs, but Trump has delivered.


21 posted on 10/19/2019 7:07:04 AM PDT by CodeToad (Arm Up! They Are!)
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To: LS; All

“In the 2015 primary for Governor, 1.14 million (or 39%) turned out to vote. Last night, turnout increased to 45%, for a total turnout of 1.34 million voters. This was a conservative turnout: while 25% of the early vote was black, JMC estimates that due to 35% Election Day turnout in white precincts and 28% Election Day turnout in the black precincts, 27% of last night’s electorate was black. In other words, an estimated total electorate that was 26.5% black, which is on the low side in Louisiana in terms of base Democratic voter intensity.”

https://yallpolitics.com/2019/10/14/what-does-the-republican-rout-in-louisiana-mean-for-the-upcoming-mississippi-election/


23 posted on 10/19/2019 7:10:08 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: LS

Anecdotal, but my husband and I were surprised to see a black man wearing a Blexit teeshirt Thurs evening at the local brewery. We live in a small town in a gerrymandered predominately black Democrat Congressional district in NC. It is a true blue Dem district. I am now mildly optimistic that Blexit may be real and eyes are opening.


25 posted on 10/19/2019 7:19:01 AM PDT by kalee
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To: LS
Black and hispanic males love Alpha males, and Donald J. Trump is the Ultimate Big Dawg Alpha Male.

Combine that with a bunch of beta-weasels trying to take him down....and failing miserably, Big Daddy Trump could get up to 20% of the admitted black vote (and probably 60% of the black male vote if you could see who was voting the privacy of the voting booth).

26 posted on 10/19/2019 7:22:55 AM PDT by MuttTheHoople
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To: LS

More and more Blacks are walking off the Democrat Plantation. It’s a good thing.


29 posted on 10/19/2019 7:35:02 AM PDT by laplata (The Left/Progressives have diseased minds.)
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To: LS

I read thru #29 and was amazed. No mention of TBN or the integration of churches. The Black voting population is spread between all Black churches, integrated churches and no church. Guess which group has the most Conservatives or Republicans.

The Black voting population is spread between all Black poor communities, all Black middle class communitites and integrated communities that are neither Black or white.
Guess which is most Republican.

The Black voting population is spread between those on welfare, those who work (or used to work) in the government and government funded agency sector and those who work in the voluntary private sector. Guess which is most Republican.

The Black voting population is spread among those who tune in Christian TV/radio, BET and Black TV/radio and those who tune in mass media NBC,ABC,CBS. Guess which is most Republican.

From the Black perspective there is identity politics and those who are obsessed with it. There is issue politics and those who are obsessed with it. There is friendship politics and those who practice what MLK preached. Man looks on outward appearance. God looks on the heart. Guess which is more Republican.


30 posted on 10/19/2019 8:26:19 AM PDT by spintreebob
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To: LS
When Black America en masse returns to the Republican Party--i.e. the true Republican Party: the Trump Republican Party--we will know that America's headlong plunge into the abyss of decadence has been reversed and that America is soaring into a new era of ascendency.
32 posted on 10/19/2019 8:48:39 AM PDT by Savage Beast (President Donald Trump: An honest man in a pit of vipers. Pray for America. Pray for President Trump)
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To: LS

If the “black vote” goes towards President Trump in 2020 by 20% or more .... it will be an election landslide.


33 posted on 10/19/2019 8:51:04 AM PDT by taxcontrol (Stupid should hurt - dad's wisdom)
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To: LS

zero attribution in that tweet by some random dude ... no confirmation using all search engines ... would be nice if this is true, but so far, no reason to believe that it is ... will reserve judgement until/if some actual facts emerge ...


34 posted on 10/19/2019 9:04:13 AM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: LS

Will some African Americans who can’t bring themselves to vote Republican stay home? The answer is a clear resounding YES!! In 2016 Trump won Michigan purely on the strength of African Americans in Detroit’s Wayne County staying home. He won by the state by just 13,000 votes.

The fall off of voters from 2012 to 2016 in Wayne County, which is 38% African American with most living in Detroit, was 37,364. More than enough for Clinton to have won a close election if just half of these ALWAYS VOTE DEMOCRAT voters turned out; but they didn’t. When people or groups change parties especially from Democrat to Republican it is not uncommon for them to sit out the first election. Now that Trump has delivered for African Americans it is not a stretch to say he will get 15 to 18% of that vote and further benefit from a similar stay home group. In the zero sum game the Democrats themselves have created, that 15 to 18% will come directly out of the Democrat column. Game over.


35 posted on 10/19/2019 9:05:19 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: LS

This is the end of the Dems. They took blacks for rubes, and they are not.


37 posted on 10/19/2019 9:09:11 AM PDT by Eleutheria5 (If you are not prepared to use force to defend civilization, then be prepared to accept barbarism.)
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