Posted on 10/18/2019 12:49:05 AM PDT by Cronos
Customs
The whole of the UK will leave the EU customs union. This means the UK will be able to strike trade deals with other countries in the future.
There will be a legal customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (which stays in the EU). But in practice the customs border will be between Great Britain and the island of Ireland, with goods being checked at "points of entry" in Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland's say
Because Northern Ireland will be set apart from the rest of the UK when it comes to customs and other EU rules, the deal gives its Assembly a vote on these provisions.
Some things have not changed:
Much of Mrs May's original Brexit deal will remain as part of the overall agreement. Some of the key areas are:
Transition
The transition - a period of time during which all of the current rules stay the same allowing the UK and the EU to negotiate their future relationship - is due to last until the end of December 2020.
The UK will need to abide by EU rules and pay into the EU budget, but will lose membership of its institutions.
The transition can be extended, but only for a period of one or two years.
Both the UK and EU must agree to any extension.
Citizens' rights
UK citizens in the EU, and EU citizens in the UK, will retain their residency and social security rights after Brexit.
Money
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that the bill is now around £33bn (down from £39bn).
The OBR expects that most of the money - around three-quarters of the total - would be paid by 2022,
(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.com ...
If he plays it well, he can get it passed by parliament, and the UK out on 31 October with a deal
Shrewd, moving parts of the deal to non-binding agreement.
I would call it almost a win-win. EU gets it’s blood money (the 33-billion pounds). UK gets an open-door to trade talks. The Ireland problem would be fairly settled.
I would suggest that this recession going on in Germany helped to motivate some people. The fact that the remain Tories had played out all their cards and couldn’t hinder this anymore....fell into play. I think the EU has figured out that some member states had agendas going to hinder the EU’s own game...played into the last minute talks.
I’ll predict the Trump team is in the UK by early November, and working on a new trade deal. Things look bright for 2020.
This is better than May’s shameful surrender treaty. A clean break Brexit would have been much better though.
I can fully understand if a lot of Brits were not willing to support NI having a different legal arrangement than the rest of the UK.
1. It’s not blood money - it’s the remaining dues for the budget cycle that the UK approved in 2013 (7 year budget cycle)
2. The Irish problem isn’t completely settled, but it goes back to it’s vagueness as before
3. Germany isn’t in recession yet - it’s had one negative quarter. A recession is 2 consecutive quarters. It could go into recession, but isn’t there yet
4. It looks like the one concession was on the UK side - about NI. The rest of the deal is exactly the same as Theresa May’s original 2017 deal
5. The Trump team should be in the UK by early november yes, and the UK gets a free trade zone with the USA, but protection for British farmers and pharmaceuticals. At the same time they are into negotiations for the trade deal with the EU.
Can you describe how, besides the backstop being now limited to Northern Ireland, this is different from May’s treaty?
On point three, there are several companies in Germany already now signed up for short-work, and it’ll run through summer of 2020 minimum. Maybe Merkel and the ‘coin-counters’ will argue about this, but commerce players are already figuring this is a minimum of nine months.
Interesting, thanks. I wasn’t paying attention to the German market. Are these due to orders drying up or some other reasoning, do you know?
Exqueeze me?!
What it REEKS of is taxation without representation.
According to Nigel Farage, Britain will not be able to make any external trade deals until 2022 at the earliest (interview on Fox Business) and is calling this deal lipstick on a pig and urging a no vote.
The UK still gets the projects on the UK that were part of the 2014-2020 budget cycle.
The Brits were part of that decision making process and are still part of that decision making process.
There are no new expenses they will pay. They will only pay for what they were part of the decision making process of.
What the UK gets is taxation without representation.
IOW, indentured servitude.
During the period until end of 2020 the UK gets all the benefits of the common market but is out of the common market. It’s the transition period.
The UK coughs up billions it can’t afford and subjects its citizens to EU laws they shouldn’t be required to obey.
That’s NOT sovereignty.
What’s he on about? As per Boris Johnson’s deal, the UK can start making trade deals on November 1. It will still get tariff-free access to the other 27 countries while being able to sign a US free trade pack on november 1.
The UK budget for 2018 was GBP 842 Billion
Furthermore, this is what they promised they would pay in 2013 for the entire budget cycle.
It's like you signing up to a 1 year deal with a club starting 1 January and then deciding to leave in October. you still pay for the remaining months and get the benefits of those months (the UK gets the benefits until 2020) but you still pay the amounts
and IN the club you follow club rules -- outside the club, the UK can freely make deals come 1 November
Back in mid-summer of this year, IFO (the institute) went to companies and asked around. At that point (July), around 8.5 percent of companies were going to short-work (meaning production shifts were going to lessen, and you’d work only 24 to 30 hours per week, and some government funding would cover the missing hours).
Note, this was the manufacturing sector saying this.
Back in 2012, there was a pump-up period for short-time work and they didn’t want to call it a recession.
In the last month, several car companies came to announce some type of short-time work, for a limited number of employees. Some companies are looking great right now (Audi for example). But oddly enough, the hype for new vehicles is mostly SUVs....so the compact car and sedan production folks are worried about their numbers.
This morning, Pete Altmaier (Minister of Economic Policy for Germany) reset his 2020 view. GDP will max at 1.0 percent. Some private folks are talking a .5 percent GDP situation for 2020. Some blame goes toward the unknown of BREXIT, and some is geared toward world trade declining a bit.
If you go drive around Germany and look at shopping districts...there are more empty store-fronts than any point in the past decade. It’s not just small villages or towns, but even in major urbanized zones. But if you gaze at the unemployment rate nationally....it’s 3.1 to 3.5 percent. France? It’s still up in the 8 percent range.
I’ll have to look up the actual text of the deal assuming they publish it.
As I understand it, brits would still have to follow a bunch of EU rules so as not to have a competitive advantage over the EU.
E.g. If the EU decides every member must have only 32 hour work weeks, the Brits would follow that rule.
Same goes if EU says we must be carbon neutral by 2025, Brits would follow.
This type of thing flies in the face of the intent of Brexit.
If the EU had stuck with being simply a common market with interior open travel and work and common tariffs, there would never have been a push for Brexit.
Like most government, especially centralized ones, they always devolve to micro management to the chagrin of locals.
At its heart Brexit is a revolt against centralized government which most folks are calling globalism today.
No, post October 1, they don’t have to follow the new rules.
Products they wish to sell to the EU will have to follow production regulations until December 2020.
The EU can’t decide the “only 32 hour weeks” without each of the 27 countries agreeing to that, so it won’t happen.
ditto for the carbon neutrality - the UK in fact has its own stricter targets, and due to the North Sea wind farms is more likely to meet it than Germany.
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