Posted on 09/19/2019 6:00:45 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
A Florida Atlantic University poll released Wednesday shows President Trump narrowly leading his potential Democrat challengers in a hypothetical 2020 general election matchup.
The poll – conducted September 12-15 among 934 registered voters in Florida– showed the president narrowly leading his top Democrat challengers in a general election matchup in the Sunshine State.
According to the poll, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) appeared to be the most competitive challenger, losing to Trump 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent. Joe Biden (D) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) lose to the president by one point – 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent, the poll showed.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I also think a lot of gay voters will vote for Trump because they know this bunch of Democrats will capitulate to Sharia and eventually they’ll be getting tossed off of buildings.
I hadn’t thought of this but I believe you’re exactly right. This is the most effective response to the Democrat playbook on race. Gather the troops under a shared value (citizenship), remove the division (white vs. black) and replace with a forward-moving, positive momentum (prosperity). Excellent observation!
If they can’t beat Trump now then they probably have no chance considering they have no negatives right now as no one has been hitting them... having said that, this poll is probably garbage anyways.
When the poll is registered voters and not likely voters, this means trump has nothing to worry about.
My northeast FL county was over 60% for Trump in 2016. Neighboring county across the river was 70% for him. My suburban neighborhood has definitely gotten more transplants since. I don’t expect he will hit that level here without Hillary Criminal on the ballot. I expect Trump will win Florida but it will be a battle. No doubt.
Since 2016, about 100,000 Puerto Ricans have moved to Florida. They are voter eligible USA citizens at birth.
Also, Florida passed a voter restoration amendment (or initiative, I don't recall which) in the 2018 midterm.
Up to 1 million felons (heavily Black and Hispanic) could be restored voters in 2020. My understanding is this is still being litigated in the courts and debated in the legislature.
Wisconsin?
Almost no one realizes that Mitt Romney got more votes in Wisconsin in 2012 than Trump got in 2016 - and Romney LOST the state by 7 percentage points!
Trump won Wisconsin because the Democrats failed to get their core voters to the polls.
That will not happen again in 2020.
Wisconsin and Florida have a combined 39 electoral votes.
If there are no “Faithless Democrat Electors” in 2020, Wisconsin and Florida will give Democrats 271 electoral votes, and the White House.
Will Trump still lose the popular vote?
Registered voter poll = worthless.
I think Trump will make enough of a dent in blue states where he did not bother to campaign before (California, Washington) that he will win the popular vote.
Broward and Palm counties are solid RAT and will remain that way. Miami Dade is splitting more R because of the Hispanic vote. Cuban and now Venezuelans
Who cares.
Other than taking away a talking point for nimrods who don’t understand their own government, it doesn’t matter.
Vote totals will be far more dependent on who the D’s nominate. More whacky they go, the lower their totals will likely be.
Trump will certainly do better in 20 than he did in 16, and significantly so, his vote totals were about 3 Million under Hillary. I’d say Hillary probably performed around the baseline of a D candidate that isn’t too crazy. So Trump would need 5% more votes total nationally to meet/exceed that.
I do expect him to do somewhere in the 3-5% range better at least in terms of overall vote. Which, assuming the D’s go with someone who isn’t too whackadoo, may keep them around their baseline and make that question a toss up. If the Dem’s go whackadoo with their candidate, they won’t get their baseline and Trump will certainly take the popular vote.
If Trump does better than 5% above his 16 numbers, yes he will take the popular vote no matter who the Dems put up.... But again, who cares? Executive is rewarded for breadth not depth.
Dem’s “popular vote” comes from depth in a few limited areas, not breadth. As long as they are the party of the urban coastal centers, doesn’t matter what their vote totals are, they can’t win the White House.
As usual they probably skipped panhandle, (Ft Walton, Panama City and throughout (Matt Gaetz district) goes solidly for Trump. True Patriots and lots of veterans.
George H.W. Bush got 426 electoral votes in 1988.
Just so I understand, you think Trump will get more than 426 electoral votes, even if he loses the popular vote?
GWB was not RE-ELECTED in 1988... He was ELECTED for the first time.. He lost re-election.
Trump will have the highest re-election margin since Reagan.
I am talking about re-election campaigns, not first term elections.
In 2016, Trump lost Miami-Dade 64-34.
Clinton was reelected with 379 electoral votes.
So, you think Trump can get more than 379 electoral votes, but still lose the popular vote, correct?
"Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by Dynata."
A WHAT?
I think that ANY poll now is pretty much worthless. I also think Trump is hard at work campaigning, already.
You’re right - lots of elderly Floridians are afraid to tell strangers they’re backing Trump. Too many unstable liberal thugs in the state...
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