NC-09 has a PVI of GOP+8 it looks like a GOP win of about 2.5% there.I don't think you can make this assumption. NC-9 is not the same district as it was when Trump ran in 2016. I believe it was redrawn in 2017 to be a more competitive district. Thus the only previous House election we have it was essentially a razor-thin margin in 2018.
Wow. It was re-drawn? You made a really good point that I had not considered. Thank you for your post.