Wow. It was re-drawn? You made a really good point that I had not considered. Thank you for your post.
Well, I should have double-checked my source and dates. It looks like it was re-drawn in Feb 2016 to be more competitive. If that was the case, and they used that redrawn map of Feb 2016 in the Nov 2016 Presidential race, then we do need to tap the brakes as some have suggested. Trump won this district by 7 or 8 percentage points in 2016. I still think the fact that the Dem had been campaigning non-stop for 3 years and had so much outside money flowing in, coupled with the fact that the taint from the 2018 race where the GOP candidate cheated, makes this win significant. I don’t think the GOP is behind its 2016 percentage by 6% (8%-2%), but we can’t dismiss the fact that it might. In the other NC race last night, the GOP candidate did a little better than projected, so there is that data point to consider. Holding this seat, NC-9, was important, thanks to Trump’s late push for Bishop.