https://fortune.com/2019/07/31/yes-stocks-are-overvalued-but-by-how-much-heres-what-history-tells-us/
&
https://www.independentadvisorthayes.com/investing-overpriced-stock-market/
&
https://www.barrons.com/articles/who-says-this-market-is-overpriced-1525716705
&
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-stock-market-indicator-hasnt-been-so-inflated-since-the-internet-bubble-top-2018-09-18
Want more?
“Want more?”
Three of those linked articles are all based on exactly the same metric, Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio.
The Barron’s article also looks at the CAPE ratio but concludes that it’s misleading. And in fact it contradicts the claim that the market is overpriced:
“..people are looking at the CAPE [cylically adjusted P/E] ratio, which looks really expensive using the average of the past 10 years. Of course it does, because it includes 2008 and 2009. As soon as that rolls forward, the P/E falls.”
“Today, on the real earnings yield, the market is almost exactly at its long-term average.... Right now, our 10-year expected return is 7% [a year]. A lot of our competitors have an average expectation of 5% to 6%, because they say the market is at a high valuation.”
That’s fine...but I can look at many specific stocks & their respective metrics and see that there’s no way they’re expensive. It depends on the market sector - as a whole I don’t believe the entire market is in a big bubble.
See #.
The markets will continue to rise and fall, of this I have no doubt.
However, history tells us that on average the markets advance 2 of every 3 days.
A long term view in a balanced and managed portfolio will succeed.
Money needed in next 5 yrs should neverbe invested.
The stock market could crash if Donald Trump is elected president (Marketwatch November 1, 2016)“…the election of Donald Trump in the U.S. — would likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession.”
--
A Huge Hedge Fund Says Stocks Will Crash if Donald Trump Wins (Fortune November 8, 2016)
“If Donald Trump wins the election, kiss your 401(k) goodbye.”