“Want more?”
Three of those linked articles are all based on exactly the same metric, Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio.
The Barron’s article also looks at the CAPE ratio but concludes that it’s misleading. And in fact it contradicts the claim that the market is overpriced:
“..people are looking at the CAPE [cylically adjusted P/E] ratio, which looks really expensive using the average of the past 10 years. Of course it does, because it includes 2008 and 2009. As soon as that rolls forward, the P/E falls.”
“Today, on the real earnings yield, the market is almost exactly at its long-term average.... Right now, our 10-year expected return is 7% [a year]. A lot of our competitors have an average expectation of 5% to 6%, because they say the market is at a high valuation.”
Only reason market is levitating at heights before the crash in 1929 is..........ARTIFICIAL low interest rates. Federals have the tiger by the tail. If they bring rates back up to level based on real inflation, the gov’t can not afford to pay the interest on $23 Trillion debt. And it will crash the market.
Even more scary is level of debt not just by the US gov’t, but add to that student debt, credit card debt, mortgage debt (which is high due to inflated values of hard assets), and debt all over the world.
High debt requires that economies operate at high levels. If any hiccup occurs the debt kills the debt holders.