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Beware of Rate-cut Fever
American thinker.com ^ | August | William J. Dodwell

Posted on 08/17/2019 7:50:23 AM PDT by Kaslin

Much has been written about the need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, even beyond the July cut, the first one in eleven years. Indeed, the latest escalation of trade tensions with China and its concomitant currency depreciation might make further cuts more compelling. Or not. The principal purpose of a rate cut is to provide liquidity to foster greater consumption and business investment that stimulate economic growth in the face of sustained opposition forces. But rate cuts without sufficient justification, such as those based on transitory developments, reaction to presidential jawboning, miming other central banks, or inadequate consideration of market fundamentals can thwart economic progress.

The Case for Rate Reduction

The sentiment for Fed rate reduction is predicated primarily on suppressed demand resulting from slow global economic growth and uncertainty about U.S.-China trade policy, exacerbated by sudden contagion concerns over China’s recent currency weakening. Technical factors, such as an inverted yield curve, negative interest rates in Europe and Japan, and a seeming tendency to coordinate rate policy with other central banks, also underpin support for lower rates in the U.S. In fact, current interest-rate futures markets suggest the likelihood of two more rate cuts this year.

The latest Fed guidance that prompted last month’s rate cut expresses an interest in pre-empting recession rather than reacting to it. Also factoring into monetary dovishness is the Fed’s aversion to roiling the stock market that is very sensitive to interest-rate movements. And one wonders if the Fed fears Trump’s wrath over what he thinks are excessively high rates that suppress growth, especially as the 2020 election approaches. The danger of the Fed’s lack of independence may be illustrated by Fed chairman Arthur Burns’ alleged complicity in opening the monetary spigot to accommodate President Nixon’s reelection in 1972.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial
KEYWORDS: debt; deficit; federalreserve; fedrate; inflation; racetozero
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To: Moonman62

I know, we are running enough for all of them.


21 posted on 08/17/2019 11:14:04 AM PDT by Theoria (I should never have surrendered. I should have fought until I was the last man alive)
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To: Moonman62

Yeah, let’s go negative like Europe and Japan!


22 posted on 08/17/2019 11:20:25 AM PDT by Chgogal (Trump: Make America Great Again. Democrat: Make America Mexico Again.)
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To: Moonman62

Bump to the top!!!!


23 posted on 08/17/2019 11:22:23 AM PDT by Chgogal (Trump: Make America Great Again. Democrat: Make America Mexico Again.)
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To: Kaslin

Another moron who doesn’t realize the US interest rates, currency and bonds can only be evaluated in comparison with other developed nations, not some US timescale. It’s not the 1970s.


24 posted on 08/17/2019 11:23:01 AM PDT by Justa
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To: Theoria

Bill Clinton’s policies reduced the budget deficits for awhile and savings interest rates were higher. They also led to a stock market bubble and a crash, followed by a real estate bubble and a crash. We’re still recovering.

A lot of debt you see today is due to those crashes.


25 posted on 08/17/2019 11:53:48 AM PDT by Moonman62 (Charity comes from wealth.)
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To: Moonman62
'A lot of debt you see today is due to those crashes.'

Not really. Ya can look it up. Most of the problems we face today are natural side effects of entitlement spending. Typical boom bust of the recent era has been .gov promoting investments into assets because of low interest rates, global wage arbitrage and the such. Real estate is a prime example of .gov putting the finger on the scale.

Just look around. The 'market' shouldn't be the be all end all for the financial well being of the citizen, especially with the amount of spending helping to keep it afloat.

26 posted on 08/17/2019 12:05:57 PM PDT by Theoria (I should never have surrendered. I should have fought until I was the last man alive)
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To: Theoria

The United States started out heavily in debt and recovering from hyperinflation after the Revolutionary War. We still went on to be a great nation.

The United States ran up a huge amount of debt during the Civil War and we still went on to be a great nation.

The United States ran up a huge amount of debt during WWII and we still went on to be a great nation.

The United States ran up a huge amount of debt during the Cold War and the Great Society. We went on to be a great nation.

The United States ran up a huge amount of debt during the recent stock market crash, real estate crash, and the awful Obama regime.

Today we are the world’s only superpower. We have the largest economy, the best technology, the strongest military, and the best President.

You place too much emphasis on the threat of debt. We’ve been dealing with it successfully for centuries.

The biggest threats we’ll ever face are the ones to efficient markets and capitalism. Right now the biggest threat is the Federal Reserve and their market manipulation.

That’s the position of President Trump and me too.

Enjoy your move to Argentina.


27 posted on 08/17/2019 12:46:55 PM PDT by Moonman62 (Charity comes from wealth.)
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To: Moonman62
Why move to Argentina when we can have it here.

The feds have always affected the market. People like them doing that when it benefits them. There is no benefit to large amounts of debt, especially when .gov doesn't use such low rates to do something. Instead of simply inflating asset classes.

28 posted on 08/17/2019 1:23:09 PM PDT by Theoria (I should never have surrendered. I should have fought until I was the last man alive)
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To: Theoria

Move to Argentina because they have what you want:

A balanced budget.
A central bank with a very tight policy.
A high rate paid on savings accounts.

The biggest reason of all is you ignored my brilliant post, so you can continue to wallow in your ignorance.

LEAVE!!!!


29 posted on 08/17/2019 2:06:57 PM PDT by Moonman62 (Charity comes from wealth.)
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To: Moonman62
The stock market bubble was combination of Y2K and "The Web" mania. Remember when ARIBA was $200/share?

And the housing bubble was a result of liar's loans driving up housing prices; I had coworkers whose house double in value in 1 year.

Also, don't forget that Bill Clinton benefited from $10/barrel for oil.

30 posted on 08/17/2019 4:28:40 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: Kaslin
That plus the Arab Oil Embargo led to the double digit inflation of the mid 70's, the stagflation of the late 70's, and the "MISERY INDEX".
31 posted on 08/17/2019 7:06:32 PM PDT by lightman (Byzantine Troparia: The "praise choruses" of antiquity.)
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