Posted on 05/15/2019 5:02:09 AM PDT by usafa92
A new Emerson National Poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a bump from his official entrance into the race, taking back the lead over Senator Bernie Sanders. The poll finds Biden with 33% and Sanders with 25%. The April Emerson Poll had Sanders ahead of Biden 29% to 24% making this a 13 point swing in favor of the former Vice President. Senator Kamala Harris and Senator Elizabeth Warren are tied for 3rd with each getting 10% of the vote, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg rounds out the top 5 with 8%. No other candidate in the field clears 3% (n=429, +/-4.7%, MM, May 10-13, 2019).
A majority of Democratic primary voters, 56%, indicate there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for another candidate, whereas 44% say they will definitely vote for the candidate they are currently supporting. Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling notes that “Biden and Sanders have more loyal supporters, as 52% and 54% of their voters say they will definitely vote for the top two candidates, while only 33% of Harris voters, 27% of Buttigieg and 20% of Warren voters plan to definitely stick with their preferred candidate.”
A strength for Sanders throughout this early stage of the nominating process has been the support of younger voters. Sanders currently leads Biden among 18-29 year old voters, by an impressive 41% to 11%. However, Sanders’ support weakens with age: 30-49 year olds only break for Sanders 29% to 26%, as compared to 50-64 year olds who break for Biden 42% to 19%. Among those over 65, Biden has a strong lead, beating Sanders 52% to 7%.
Within the Republican Party, the President remains very popular, and very likely to hold the Republican nomination, leading Republican primary candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld 86% to 14% (n=384, +/-5%, MM, May 10-13).
President Trump's approval rating remains the same as in the April Emerson Poll with a 43% approval and 49% disapproval (n=1,006, +/-3%, MM, May 10-13).
In head to head matchups between Trump and his top Democratic rivals, Trump trails Biden and Sanders and is in a statistical dead heat with the other candidates.
Biden 54%, Trump 46% Sanders 54%, Trump 46% O’Rourke 52%, Trump 48% Warren 51%, Trump 48% Harris 51%, Trump 49% Buttigieg 50%, Trump 50%
Voters are split when asked if they think Trump will be re-elected in 2020, with 50% thinking he will be re-elected and 50% of voters thinking he will not. Republicans are slightly more optimistic with 84% expecting re-election while 80% of Democrats are expecting the President to be defeated. Independents are split 51% to 49%, with the slight majority expecting the President to lose.
When asked what issue is the most important in determining who they would support for President, the most common responses at 27% each are the Economy and Social Issues/Values, followed by Social Security/Medicare and Health Care at 14% each, and Immigration at 10%. The Mueller Report and the Federal Deficit each got 2%. (n=975, +/-3%). Kimball explains: “The Mueller report, in and of itself, is not the issue the Democrats are trying to win on, but serves as a frame for a larger narrative focusing on social/values issues meant to appeal to voters in 2020. Such social/value issues are core for 38% of Democratic primary voters.”
Another observation by Kimball is that “the issue of the Federal Deficit was a top issue in 2012 for Republicans, yet is an afterthought in this election, as only 1% of Republican voters identify it as the most important issue in the upcoming campaign.” Kimball adds, “In this election cycle top issues for Republican voters are the economy at 41%, followed by immigration at 18%.”
Half of all voters, 50%, think Twitter and Facebook are biased against people with particular political beliefs, 21% do not, and 29% are unsure. The bias issue splits along party lines, with 71% of Republicans identifying a bias, as compared to only 32% of Democrats who share this view. 50% of Independents believe the social media platforms are biased, while 16% believe they are not.
About half of all voters, 49%, have watched some part of the recent televised town halls with the 2020 Presidential candidates.
When voters were asked their political ideology, 36% identified as somewhat or very liberal, 38% said somewhat or very conservative and 26% identified as moderate.
Emerson is clearly polling on behalf of Democrats, as noted by the head-to-head matchup’s in this survey, they have Trump tied or trailing every single Democratic candidate which is obviously not the case. It seems that the Democratic field is still wide open but right now Bernie looks like he still has the best chance of capturing the nomination.
Sniffy’s in trouble
....
My guess is Bernie gets the AOC endorsement making him cool to be an old white guy and then sleepy Joe will look like a deer in the head lights during the debates as he is not quick cognitively anymore and then some other stupid things he said and did will catch up with him.
Last night Tucker played an incoherent clip of Slow Joe. I no longer believe he is a serious threat to DJT.
When Sanders was leading, it was before Biden had entered the race.
Still, it is early days, and Biden is lousy. There are too many candidates on the Dem side. They have to thin the herd somehow. There are other “moderates” (so-called) besides Biden though who have not gotten a serious look because the party is so anxious about one of the unreconstructed leftists getting the nomination that they all just went to Biden as antidote.
LOL...Sniffy. Thanks for the laugh to start the day.
*s*
*s*
I wonder what gyrations we are going to see by the MSM in propping ol Slo Joe up during the campaign. He would be 78 by the time he was inaugurated. That’s 5 years older then Reagan. And they endlessly commented about him being senile. Ol Joe actually acts senile. The Weekend at Bernies stuff is going to put the Maskirovka they did for Hillary on a whole new level.
“Biden 54%, Trump 46% Sanders 54%, Trump 46% O’Rourke 52%, Trump 48% Warren 51%, Trump 48% Harris 51%, Trump 49% Buttigieg 50%, Trump 50%”
How dd Trump fare against the rest of the bunch?
If Biden were the Dem. Nominee, all eyes would be on his VP Pick because of his age.
AOC...
One reporter managed to get through...he asked Joe how many campaign stops he planned.
Joe said: "Campaign stops? Wait a sec, am I running for something?"
An astute Freeper recently pointed out here that Biden probably has no intention of running in 2020 ... and that his presence in the race is solely for the purpose of providing an attractive “moderate” candidate who can help the DNC raise lots of money from corporate donors who would never support the radical leftists in the party.
WAY too early. wait till after the first quarter of 2020 before things start to shake out.
What about Hillary?
Emerson had her beating Trump by 17 points in August 2016.
Polls are meaningless this early.
Who combs his hair with a balloon.
When they fake the numbers democrat v Trump who’s to say they don’t fake Biden v Sanders? After the 2016 primary how can any democrat trust democrat polling or the DNC?
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