Posted on 05/13/2019 8:04:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Stocks fell sharply on Monday, giving back the gains from a strong turnaround in the previous session, after China decided to raise tariffs on some U.S. goods as the ongoing trade war between the world’s largest economies intensifies.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 490 points, while a 2.8% drop in the tech sector pushed the S&P 500 down by 1.9%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.6%.
China will hike tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. imports, starting on June 1. The goods targeted include a broad range of agricultural products. This comes after President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports last week. China said in a statement that the U.S.′ decision jeopardized the interests of both countries and does not meet the “general expectations of the international community,” according to a Google translation.
Trade bellwether Caterpillar fell more than 4% while Apple dropped 4.6%. Boeing shares also declined more than 2.5% amid speculation the airplane maker could be singled out by China in the trade war.
Asian markets fell broadly. The Nikkei 225 index declined 0.7% Monday while the Shanghai Composite pulled back 1.2%. European stocks also dropped. The Stoxx 600 index fell 1.3% while the German Dax dipped 1.6%.
“Volatility is going to persist. People don’t know what to make of it,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. But “this is more of a re-evaluation of stocks than it is a pure panic. Bonds have rallied over the last couple of weeks, but if this was a panic you’d see people coming a lot more for bonds.”
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
Bet you it goes up a few hundred points tomorrow.
Deadly in pigs but harmless to humans, why is African swine fever such a threat to China’s economy?
With the first case of the disease confirmed in Hong Kong, we look at how the latest outbreak has spread since it first resurfaced last August.
Hong Kong has now joined mainland China in responding to the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), a deadly disease that threatens the pig population but is not harmful to humans. On Friday, the city’s first case was confirmed, despite the government taking precautionary measures, prompting it to order a cull of 6,000 pigs to prevent the spread of the plague-like virus.
What is swine fever?
ASF can be traced to Kenya, where it was found in domestic swine in 1921. According to a leading expert on the disease, Professor Dirk Pfeiffer of Hong Kong’s City University, it can be transmitted by warthogs and specific soft tick species, which in turn spreads to domestic pigs.
The virus had largely been kept under control until 2007 when it was detected in Georgia, and has remained present in domestic pigs and wild boars since then.
The latest outbreak began in Northern China last August, and led to the culling of 19,000 pigs. Photo: EPA-EFE
When did the latest outbreak start?
The premature death of pigs on a small farm in Northern China last August marked the first detection of ASF, and prompted a cull of 19,000 pigs in the vicinity.
The attempt to prevent the spread of the disease failed, and more than a million pigs have been killed or slaughtered so far. Hainan Island in late April reported its first case, meaning each of China’s 31 provinces and regions had a reported case of ASF.
Why is it fatal?
The disease is deadly to pigs because of its highly contagious qualities, and the virus has a 100 per cent mortality rate. There is no known cure and authorities have adopted an approach of culling herds in the affected areas to prevent widespread pig pandemics.
What has been done to contain the spread of the disease?
In Hong Kong, specific precautions included slaughtering all pigs on a farm if one was found to be infected. Previously, only a few would be. The government has also considered killing pigs on the day they arrive in the city. Hong Kong imports around 4,000 pigs per day from the mainland to feed demand.
Why does this outbreak matter?
Pfeiffer was part of a team of experts who published a paper in the British Medical Journal in 2017 warning that China’s “pig empire” was under threat unless action was taken.
“It is extremely concerning,” said Pfeiffer, of the latest outbreak. The expert has spent almost 15 years studying the disease, and said China provided almost half of the global pig population.
“Mainland China deals with an enormous problem, largely caused by the huge number of pigs produced by primarily low biosecurity pig farms,” he said. “The difficulty with these farms is that they are often not willing to improve their farm biosecurity, often simply because they cannot afford it.”
A worst-case scenario would see the world’s economy impacted by the spread of the disease. Photo: Edmond So
A Dutch investment bank has painted a worst-case scenario for China’s pigs, which would have global consequences for pork consumption and prices.
Rabobank suggested 200 million pigs, almost half of the nation’s animals, would need to be culled in order to control the epidemic, which is already three times the number of pigs in the United States.
According to the statistics bureau, China had 375 million sows, pigs and piglets at the end of March, a rapid fall from 428 million at the end of December.
Consumers face the impact of higher pork prices in the near term as supply tightens.
South China Morning Post
April 19. 2019
African swine fever: ‘not enough pork in the whole world’ to fill China’s supply gap
Rabobank estimates that China could lose up to 200 million pigs to disease or slaughter, almost three times the number of pigs in the United States
Despite heavy trade war tariffs, Chinese buyers are importing US pork, betting on a US-China trade deal
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“60% of the Chinese Economy are goods sold to the US... And if you think they can take that hit without political upheaval, you are only fooling yourself”
Who is going to cause that upheaval?
Ping
Down 661 points last I checked.
Have you sold yet?
African Swine Fever has decimated 30% of the pork in China. It IS a major animal disease that is wrecking the agriculture in China right now. The US is doubling down on procedures to keep it out of the US.
Of course not. According to you it's going to finish the day up over 100. Remember?
Why haven’t you sold hypocrite?
Big Media is rooting against us.
Because I'm not an idiot. Why haven't you sold?
So you agree the "reaction" is way overblown.
[Sears had a practice where they would keep placing orders with small to mid size manufacturers until their orders represented 50% to 60% of the manufacturers production. Then they would ace a large order, forcing the manufacturer to incur debt to expand and to hire more employees.
As soon as the manufacturer was locked in to the debt, Sears would go back and force the manufacturer to lower their prices or they would pull all future orders and/or cancel current orders.]
[Down 661 points last I checked.]
We love to cut you down to size.
Here we go again. The sooner this is finished the better and Trump better not give in like he did on the shut-down. Never start something you can’t finish.
Every year for the last few we have given up all the gains we made in the winter for some kind of skirmish in the summer.
Sell in May and go away or just go away in May and not look back until November is looking more and more like the thing to do.
Last time I checked, India doesn’t do so well at infrastructure. Such as roads and electricity.
If China loses 200 million pigs, any tariff the Chinese gov’t puts on them may be inconsequential. At best it highly annoys their populace. Global markets will likely shift around quite a bit, providing many opportunities for US producers. Pigs are raised for slaughter in just 6 months from birth — how fast can the US farmers increase production significantly?
(Obviously we and other sources cannot begin to more than make a dent in filling the gap.)
If they do that, I’m going into QA/remediation.
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