Posted on 03/28/2019 5:19:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
U.S. economic growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter last year to an annual rate of just 2.2 percent. There are concerns that growth has slowed even more in the first quarter this year as global weakness, fading government stimulus and rising trade tensions take a toll on the economy.
The increase in the GDP, the economy’s total output of goods and services, was revised down from an initial estimate of 2.6 percent growth in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The change reflected weakness in a number of areas. Consumer spending, business investment, government spending and housing all came in lower than first thought.
Economists believe growth has slowed further in the current January-March quarter to around a 1.5 percent rate.
The downward revision to the fourth quarter did not affect the annual growth rate for all of 2018, which remained at 2.9 percent, the best showing since a similar increase in 2015.
President Donald Trump and other administration officials highlighted last year’s GDP performance as evidence that the administration’s policies of tax cuts, deregulation and tougher trade enforcement were working.
The president’s new budget, released earlier this month, is projecting that the economy will grow at rates of 3 percent or better through much of the next decade. This forecast is well above the estimates of most private economists who believe that growth will revert to the modest pace seen throughout this expansion of around 2 percent.
This has been the weakest economic recovery in the post-World War II period. But the expansion is set to become the longest in U.S. history if it goes past June, surpassing the 10-year expansion of 1991 to 2001.
Economists say slow growth in the labor force, reflecting low birth rates and the retirement of baby boomers, along with weak productivity gains are the major reasons GDP growth will not be able to sustain annual gains of 3 percent or better. However, this assessment is disputed by Trump and his economic advisers who believe the administration’s policies will power growth to higher levels.
In a separate report Thursday, the government said that applications for unemployment benefits, a reflection of layoffs, fell by 5,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 211,000. The result suggests that businesses are keeping their workers in a tight job market.
The economy’s 2.2 percent annual growth rate last quarter, though solid, was the slowest since a similar 2.2 percent pace in the first quarter of 2018. That was followed by two strong quarters with GDP growth of 4.2 percent in the second quarter and 3.4 percent in the third quarter.
Thursday’s GDP report from the Commerce Department was the final look at the fourth quarter.
The report showed that consumer spending slowed to a still solid growth rate of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, below the estimate last month of a 2.8 percent gain. Business investment spending came in at a still-strong 5.4 percent annual rate, down from an initial 6.2 percent estimate.
Government spending fell at a rate of 0.4 percent, down from an initial estimate of a small 0.4 percent gain. Domestic spending by the federal government was revised lower to show a 6.1 percent rate of decline, likely reflecting the impact of the 35-day partial government shutdown.
For 8 years shortfalls were always “unexpected” but NEVER termed short of Caliph Baraq’s goals...
Other recent reports has 2018 GDP at 3.1%
2.2 is not far short of 2.6.
They just have a standing order to spin anything and everything Trump related as negative as they possibly can.
It looks like they're using two different measures.
If you compare the size of the economy in Dec. 2017 vs. Dec. 2018 you get the 3.1% growth rate.
If you compare the total output in CY2017 vs. CY2018 you get 2.9% growth.
The latter is the number used more commonly historically but both are perfectly valid measures.
deep state will do whatever it takes to make the economy tank before 2020..TRUST!
Oh okay we’ll just have to vote for a Demo rat right ? Go away and take your lues with you.
I don’t for a minute believe this number, this number includes one of the biggest holiday seasons EVER!!!
Bullcrap. I’d suspect all in that dept are part of deep state, Dems.
Just as the Bamster’s numbers were always “embellished”, in his favor, of course.
Having 20-something & 30-something so-called economic/financial experts tell us this is the ‘worst economy since WWII’ isn’t convincing or believable. Many of America’s best run corporations have cited the long rough winter weather throughout the country as holding back what would’ve been far better growth numbers. Hang in there Patriots, warmer weather should bring us a healthy, thriving American production, sales and hiring environment.
When Dear Leader was occupying the Whitehut, we heard optimistic economic reports about the economy that were later downgraded.
Trump’s immigration and Trade policies are clearly suppressing the potential of a really great GDP.
Here in Atlanta the demand for housing exceeds construction capacity. And the only restraint on construction is the lack of people willing to work.
IT projects are being off shored to India because workers cannot be found here.
We attack the left for living in unreality. We need to be honest about our end also.
Now, if the short term low GDP causes more investment in factories, and in training, then long term this Trump policy will pay off.
So is the response sufficient?
The economy was on life support during 0bama’s entire reign of terror.
Q4 2018 was when the Democrats stole the midterms. Not surprising that the specter of Democrats returning to power would destroy confidence in the economy and cause people to reduce their spending and investment plans.
I just know gas prices are going up again.
U.S./ China trade imbalance lessened in January.
Right now I have a very sizeable pending contract in play. If this goes through, my company may hit our total 2019 revenue target by July 15th. It doesn't get much better than this for me, folks.
The EPA specifies different grades of gasoline for each metro area, rural area and they alll change from winter to summer grades right now. The grades make no sense. Ethanol is required and it is the biggest pollutant and nothing but welfare to big agribusiness...corporatism.
If we let the market decide what to buy it would mean less pollution, less “gresnhouse gases” and less campaign contributions to certain bi-partisan politicians.... and cheaper gasoline. But those EPA bureaucrats woould be unemployed.
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