Posted on 01/01/2019 10:08:14 PM PST by vannrox
From the article :
"The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction.
At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.”
– The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe "
" History may not repeat, but human nature never changes, so the 80-year cycles of manmade crisis will repeat."
Issues of National concern : Economic Distress, Social and Political discord, in the face of International Issues.
Then, like dominoes, it begins a chain reaction of International ferment that becomes chaos.
You are oversimplifying the complicated interactions of a chaotic time. There was much hesitation and uncertainty, many offers and counter-offers, much maneuvering and strategizing. The bottom line is that Davis wanted war to pull the Upper South into his Confederacy and war is what he got.
They also admit that they had trouble fitting the years between the Civil War and WWI into their scheme. No heroic generation there either.
The Progressive Generation of a century ago is put into the same category as the Silent Generation of the 1950s or the Compromise Generation that failed to prevent the Civil War, which may or may not make sense to us, but which surely would have annoyed the progressives.
Maybe that is what we are in for now. No heroic generation to save us, but a complicated, conflicted, irritated and irritating generation that takes over and changes things without necessarily resolving anything.
You can't go wrong predicting that there will be a major crisis sometime, and if it doesn't tear us apart, it may bring us back together.
Truth...
Good. It's time to be rid of society's leeches, and the criminal politicians who trade welfare checks for votes.
Man... this author must have only gotten coal for Xmas.
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No, he got a dose of reality. We all should realize what’s happening and what could happen.
I think 2019 is where the Left (I include the Deep State here) begins to really try to punish its perceived enemies for daring to “defy” them
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Maybe not 2019 but it’s coming when they have the power to do it. And it will be on an individual basis. What Obama did with the IRS was nothing compared to what they can do.
Individual banking accounts, pensions, Social Security. etc. could be selectively attacked.
“We’re sorry for the inconvenience. We’ll get right on it”./s
The North did a LOT of things wrong to precipitate that War, which did not have to happen. The North was essentially out to economically enslave the South.
However, the winners write the history books.
I know some pretty strong Millennials - don’t believe everything you read in the papers/hear on the news.
Wasn’t it only about 3% of the population or something like that that made such a huge impact in the Revolution.
I’m headed to my reloading bench!
On the contrary. It is the utmost of arrogance to think He can't ultimately protect us from disaster and bring us through by His Divine Providence ...
If my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land. (2 Chronicles 7:14)
Whether He will or not is another matter, likely dependent on our choices going forward...
Ping
Something bad is on its way:
1. Last Sunday US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin conducts an emergency meeting with CEOs of the six biggest US banks to confirm their bank’s liquidity and Tweets assurance.
2. Now the US Office of Comptroller of the Currency broadcasts US banks are well positioned for crisis.
WTF?
Stocks Slide After OCC Unexpectedly Says US Banks “Well Positioned” For Crisis
January 2, 2019
Categories
BUSINESS
Curious what prompted US stocks to swoon lower around 2:45pm, having traded closely around the unchanged line? It may have been a reported by Reuters according to which the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said that the U.S. banking system has “strong capital and liquidity” and is “well-positioned” to manage more adverse market conditions.
If this sounds suspiciously close to what Steven Mnuchin said the weekend ahead of the Christmas Eve market massacre when, inexplicably, the Treasury Secretary announced that US bank liquidity levels are sufficient and that he had spoken to bank CEOs and summoned the Plunge Protection team, is because it is. Readers will hardly need a reminder that the market’s response to Mnuchin’s statement was one of shock: after all, nobody had even suggested that there may be any concerns with US bank, so Mnuchin’s statement stunned everyone, and prompted question about what if anything may be wrong with US banks for Mnuchin to try to “calm” markets in such a bizarre way which was last deployed during the financial crisis.
Well, now it was the OCC’s turn.
In a statement to Reuters, OCC spokesman Bryan Hubbard said the banking regulator was monitoring the effects of falling stock markets on the nearly 1,300 institutions it oversees and would share any relevant systemic information with fellow supervisors through the appropriate interagency forums.
“The federal banking system … is strong with capital and liquidity near historical highs and improved earnings and risk management. From this strength, the federal banking system is well positioned to manage more adverse market conditions.”
He added that OCC expects supervised institutions to understand exposures within their portfolios and take appropriate action to mitigate any risks, although just like in the case of Mnuchin, it was not at all obvious why the OCC would address bank liquidity levels all of a sudden: after all not even the biggest market skeptics have warned about bank liquidity, or solvency for that matter.
Hubbard also explained that possible risks could include adverse effects on liquidity, pricing, or terms for corporate loans and bonds.
And with this odd warning hitting out of the blue, stocks promptly faded any gains for the day, and have been sliding ever since as traders once again wonder just why in the span of under 10 days we have gotten repeat assurance that “banks are fine” and “well positioned” for a crisis...
l8r.
Thanks!
The book, The Fourth Turning primarily uses the Anglo/American history of the past 500 years in England and the US to illustrate the cycles of history.
They do discuss events farther back into Roman and pre-Roman times, but the past 500 years is sufficient to establish their thesis.
Excellent book for those who have read it. It doesn't seem to change anyone from liberal to conservative, or from conservative to liberal, and you can't tell if the researchers are liberal or conservative.
Who could have predicted that the ragged, homeless or tent-city kids of the Great Depression would fight and win World War II? What were the chances of that happening?
The movie Sea Biscuit was a good example from the Great Depression era that showed the changes among a small group of people.
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