Posted on 10/28/2018 6:28:51 AM PDT by EarlyBird
Just this week, a poll came out—I won’t mention the polling company—that had U.S. Senator Bill Nelson (D) ahead in his Florida senate race against Governor Rick Scott by (hang on) . . . 17 points.
Now, even if you think (and I don’t) that Nelson is ahead, this is one of those whoppers that stands up there with Hillary Clinton winning the Michigan Primary in 2016 (when Bernie Sanders drubbed her by double digits) or every single one of the pollsters getting Wisconsin wrong. The average error was six points. Some were off by as many as nine points to achieve that stunning error. Only two pollsters, Trafalgar and People’s Pundit Daily, had Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania or Michigan. Every single “major” pollster had him losing both.
Now comes Drudge with a scare headline about a Florida “wipeout!” Well, he’s right in part. There will be a wipeout, but not of the Republicans.
(Excerpt) Read more at bigleaguepolitics.com ...
The liberals state which of their candidates are going to win based solely on fund raising.
Great article, Professor! Thanks for all your hard work!
As someone else on this forum posted, the Trump campaign proved that money doesn’t vote!
Excellent article.
I pray that LS is correct.
We really need to keep the House.
I’ve never been called by a pollster in my 52 years. Maybe they called when I was at work.
Check out Larry’s Twitter.
Good stuff..
I posted this in my FB groups and on my newsfeed yesterday. EXCELLENT article! Very encouraging for Florida. I have a friend who lives there who has been very concerned about that Gillum character. i’d hoped it would ease her mind.
But, but, but Nate Silver says the early vote is meaningless and polls are everything!
“The liberals state which of their candidates are going to win based solely on fund raising.”
indeed. that’s the fake drum the fake stream media has been ordered to beat by the Dems during this last week ... but you have to admit they have a point: after all, hillary won because she outspent trump two-to-one ...
If the polls showed Rs ahead and the early vote favored Ds, Nate would switch his opinion 180 degrees.
Thanks for this. Despite the walking back of some of the more extreme polling, the media is still trying to use the doom and gloom approach to depress Republican turnout. We need to get everyone out to vote
But, but, but....karl rove’s white board show dems have easiest path to contol the house & pick up several statehouses with 10 rep guv term limited out
I get called by pollsters CONSTANTLY.
“You are seeing a vast chasm between “polling” and numbers now in virtually every state. The numbers point to GOP senate victories in Arizona, Nevada, Indiana, North Dakota, Florida, Tennessee, Texas, and tentatively to gains in Montana and Ohio. But the overall “wave” picture of these numbers suggests there will likely be at least one or more surprises on election night in New Jersey, Michigan, and Minnesota. The latter two are extremely difficult to track because they do not collect ballots by party ID as do Florida, Arizona, and Ohio.”
In the weeds are NJ and MI going red. I do not know MN will however 10 days until the RED TSUMANI. I am looking for the talking heads to explode again. Ten years ago the Tea Party started as just people not money. Their flame never went out. The political change they started exploded with Trump and there is no going back.
He will be spot on. Volusia County, FL is bellwhether. Yesterday day 1 of early voting there. Just from yesterday EV, Ignoring independents,
Reps 52.5%
Dems 47.5%
That’s a great indicator. As LS points out, dems usually take early voting. Today should be great, too, due to after church population.
Volusia totals EV plus absentee, ignoring independents,
Reps 53.9%
Dems 46.0%
Independents will go for Reps no less than 50%. Florida will stay Red by 5-8%. DeSantis toward the lower, Scott the upper of that.
“I get called by pollsters CONSTANTLY.”
You do remember to lie, don’t you? I heard some liberal nutcake argue that citizens have a DUTY to be truthful to pollsters. She believed that a massive blue wave was out there somewhere but people were afraid to speak out because those nasty Trump supporters would GET them!
Excellent analysis.
>>You do remember to lie, don’t you? <<
Of COURSE!! “beto all the way!” “hillary should be president.” “More government, higher taxes, spread the wealth from those greedy capitalists!!”
I *LOVE* messing with data.
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