Posted on 10/23/2018 12:37:59 PM PDT by Ravi
see comments if interested...
D-55,575 (42.4%)
R-51,771 (39.5%)
I-23,676 (18.1%)
2016 EARLY/ABSENTEE ENTIRE FIRST WEEK:
D-167,913 (43.7%)
R-140,792 (36.6%)
I-75,408 (19.6%)
Still 4 days left in this first week for early voting. Compared to 2016 first week, D down 1.4%, R up 2.9%, I down 1.5%. Nevada SOS has updated with all counties including rurals reporting as of 10/22. I know LS was wondering about that. Nothing for today yet.
Trending favorably but still four days left in this first week...
By gross numbers, D had 27,200 advantage in 2016. This year that advantage so far is 3,800. There were 1.125 million votes in 2016. We won't hit that this year of course - my prediction is 700,000 to 800,000 (we'll see if I'm right). It was about 500,000 in 2014. We are way past 2014.
Any comments welcome.
Any thoughts...
Yes. Historically, Dems have taken to early voting more than Republicans. As early voting becomes more established, Republicans may be doing it more than they had, making it hard to get a real bead on these things. Of course, this is much better than it going the other way!
Wow
First 2 days Dimm early vote margin with partial rurals 6736
First 2 days GOP absentee margin with partial rurals (2132)
First 2 days estimated GOP margin on missing rurals (3065)
First 2 days estimated actual Dimm margin including rurals 1539
Probably more than you wanted to know, but here is “The Dentist’s” analysis:
Average daily Dimm gain(1539 divided by 2) 770
First week estimated Dimm gains(770 times 7) 5390
Second week estimated Dimm gains(770 times 6 times 66%) 3080
13 day estimated Dimm gains(5390 plus 3080) 8470
2016 Dimm early voting, absentee, & mail in margin 47778
As you can see it appears the Dimms will fall around 40000 votes short of their 2016 margin if trends continue. Trump only lost the state in 2016 by 27202 votes so if these trends hold(I think the GOP will acrtually do better than this)
May be low for us.
Long lines at the Raley’s in Golden Valley/Reno North Valleys. 25 minutes minimum. Hasn’t been like this that I remember.
Yes let’s circle back and see where we are after Friday. Current overall Dem advantage is 3800.
It would help if someone crunched numbers for the most competitive House districts.
Nate Silver says there’s an 86% chance the House will flip to the Rats. Of course, he’s been wrong before.
Its any one’s guess what actually happens next month.
Rural numbers are good. Washoe isn’t good.
TTTT
If you don’t believe in the Hispanic Shift, this will not mean anything to you. The Latino population of Nevada is 27%.
Heller is plus 7. Fake polls will always show a Republican down if they possibly can.
Trump has a 52% approval rating in Nevada.
Numbers are trending in the right direction.
Planning to go vote later today or in the morning. Our location is also a neighborhood Raley’s, which makes it easy.
It “washes” out. Sorry. Sorry I digress. D had I think 600 vote advantage yesterday in Washoe - let’s see tonight what that looks like compared to yesterday.
Just in general, we’re used to electing Republican governors (Sandoval literally won by like 50 points, like Hillary though she should), and Laxalt is a well-known name. So Laxalt should win over that sleazy Sisolak, and carry Dean Heller with him. We’re also not used to having 2 Dem Senators (Harry Reid, and now his acolyte Cortez-Maesto was always enough). I wish the polls showed better, but they are currently positive for Heller, and I just don’t think this state is going to become another California with one-party rule (at least not yet).
It’s going to be close, but I have to think Heller’s going to take this. There are tons of ads on the internet and TV about Wacky Jacky being another Pelosi puppet, wanting to be promoted to Chuckie puppet. That being said, I’m dragging every right-thinking person I know to the polls.
No surprise here. Probably arrogant snobby mare will get back in.
It gives Democrats an exact number of votes they need to manufacture or steal.
Not really true. Information is there for everyone going back many elections in NV. Heller still won in 2012 and Sandoval 2014.
These are not actual votes. These are people who have voted by party. Look at the independents who have voted. No one knows the actual vote totals.
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