Posted on 10/19/2018 4:43:34 PM PDT by Ravi
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10/19/18: D-153,892 R-135,224 I-71,060 10/21/16: D-190,229 R-155,417 I-93,140
IA#1 (Blum-R) seat:
10/19/18: D-42,113 R-30,187 I-21,543 10/21/16: D-49,902 R-34,330 I-26,250
IA#2 (Loebsack-D) seat:
10/19/18: D-39,255 R-30,310 I-15,425 10/21/16: D-52,997 R-35,007 I-24,482
2016 IA#1: Blum won 53.9 to 46.1 2016 IA#2: Loebsack won 53.7 to 46.3
IA#1 absentee Requests seem mostly consistent from 2016 to 2018 with slightly larger Dem/Indy drop-off than Rep but not huge. However Blum won pretty comfortably in 2016 so he just needs to hold serve which he appears to be doing.
IA#2 is interesting but I just don't know hot much to read into the Requests but they are down significantly for the Dems/Indies and less so for GOP. jjotto feels IA#2 is a pipe-dream and he's probably right but still these numbers are a little eye-popping nonetheless.
Statewide looks good compared to 2016...for the governor's election I believe.
ping. Thoughts? Most Requests in Iowa are returned (over 90%).
Am mostly interested in the bottom line. Which stats indicate a GOP edge of what % points?
One has to say the numbers look good.
True for early numbers out of NC/FL/AZ/IA.
I’m 223-212 House, 55-45 Senate.
Senate, have ND, MO, IN as pickups. But with Florida’s numbers so good, updating Senate to 55-45 with 4 pickups.
IN has a Lib on ballot. If we don’t pick up IN, the margin will be the Lib votes.
Looks pretty good for GOP in both districts. I wonder how many Ds voted GOP there, in the past elections. Go Trumpocrats!
Why use 2016 as the comparison, a Presidential year, versus 2014? That said, the turnout for 2018 appears to be huge.
Read LS analysis. There is good reason and data for doing this
This is like a guerilla war, blend in with the sheeple, but when it’s time to strike, VOTE !!!
Because of your second statement. All indications pretty much everywhere indicate presidential level turnout.
If previous turnout is an indicator, Blum is safe. Might be possible to flip 2, but a bigger slice out of LoebsCk’s vote would help
IA CD 2: Six-term incumbent Dem Loebsack faces former Libertarian Chris Peters for the second time. Peters isn’t a strong or well-financed candidate, but seems to be making a smart, cautious campaign. A Peters win would almost certainlyl mean a nationwide GOP trend.
If Lieawatha wins by less than ten percent in Massachusetts I’ll know it’s gonna be a long night for the RATS!
Independent ballot requests are up for the Statewide and Loebsack races.
Overall, Democrats seem to have steeper drop than Republicans in ballot requests from 2016, but have sought more ballots than Republicans in all races.
I’m in FL.
Do I vote early in person on Mon to bulk red early #s (shows enthusiasm) or wait until 11/6?
The latter course gives a shorter vote manufacture time.
The above post applies in all states c/ early in person voting.
Not sure how much it matters, but early voting is a fairly recent addition to Iowa. Early votes are counted as absentee ballots.
I’m early voting in Texas on Monday. Personally, I can’t wait to cast that vote.
I looked at it and it looks like Democrat count is out numbering Republican count
It appears to me the numbers are consistent to possibly suggest numerous DEMs are now voting as INDependents and REPs are matching or exceeding expectations
Actually Indies are down also.
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