Posted on 10/19/2018 4:01:51 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
Could Republicans do the unthinkable on November 6th and keep a majority in the House? Politicos Rachel Bade calls it unlikely, but not impossible. Bade hears from Republicans and even a few Democrats that the political winds have shifted enough this month that it might result in a slight GOP majority once all the votes have been counted.
....Just about every poll predicts it wont happen: Suburban voters are too fed up with Donald Trump, and Democrats too awash in cash, for Nancy Pelosis party not to seize the House on Nov. 6.
And yet House Republicans and privately, even a few Democrats say the GOP could still hang on, if only by a few seats. The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has given GOP voters a badly needed enthusiasm boost, they argue, and several races seen as unwinnable just weeks ago are suddenly back within reach for Republicans.
Democrats, meanwhile, have retreated from several battlegrounds once considered prime targets. Theyve also deserted a Democratic-controlled open seat in Minnesota, creating a new, rare pickup opportunity for Republicans in a cycle where theyve consistently been on defense.....
Unlikely seems right if one watches the polling. At FiveThirtyEight, the forecast gives the GOP a 1-in-6 chance of holding the majority, which might be slightly better than unlikely, but not by a lot. Thanks to the disparity between urban centers and everywhere else, Democrats have an advantage in the overall popular vote but Republicans have one in distribution. By their calculation, Democrats have to win the national popular vote by 5.5 points in order to win 218 or more seats in the House.
So what does the polling tell us? Right now, the RCP average Democratic lead is 7.6%. Its close enough that it the MoE could pull it below the line needed for the gavel. Plus, as Bade notes, Democrats are noticing that the GOP are rebounding in specific races they thought they had locked up:
...Democrats are also taking money from the race to unseat GOP Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, who, Republicans say, has a healthy lead. That came just days after Democrats pulled out of Hispanic-populated districts represented by Rep. David Valadao in central California and Rep. Will Hurd along the Texas border. And theyve withdrawn $800,000 in planned ads from Rep. Vern Buchanans Florida district, where the Democratic challenger, David Shapiro, trails the incumbent....
They may be running into trouble in Minnesota, where Pete Stauber looks set to flip Rick Nolans Democratic seat in the Iron Range. Republicans might also be in trouble in MN-02 where incumbent Jason Lewis has trailed in some polls, and where Democrats win more state legislative seats of late, so it could be a trade. But a trade doesnt help Democrats take over the House majority, either.
The wild card in this is the Kavanaugh Effect. How many Republican voters who were complacent without Donald Trump on the ballot have now been galvanized by that debacle? How many has Trump himself galvanized in his barnstorming over the last few weeks? The polling mainly missed thesurge of marginally attached voters that turned up in 2016, and may be missing it again now. Add that to the massive fundraising and organizing advantage the RNC has over the DNC, and we could be in for a surprise on Election Night.
Not that Id bet that way, but its definitely possible. And maybe even somewhere north of unlikely.
YES WE CAN...
GOP is going to keep the House, easily.
Stay tuned to msnbc eletion night for some laughs!
Where is my absentee ballot. I sent in the application months ago.
From your lips to God’s ears!
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It was probably stolen from your mailbox by a Soros aid.
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Pollutico is a joke.
GOP will gain house seats.
They have them here, too?!
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Beautiful!
It seems to me that the legislature is at liberty to redraw the districts any time they wish. They could have simply come up with another plan to replace the court’s.
So you are saying that the same people who go to vote Republican for Senate will vote Democrat for House?
:^) We'll need more of those bumperstickers in the future, "Caution: this vehicle accelerates to run down endangered wildlife."
If we do, those boys better steamroller the dems, push it through, hear their wailing..love it
I’m saying that there are senators who can win in red States but there may be districts within that red state that are kind of purple or blue leaning, and they will vote for the Democrat congressman. I can vote for an R senator in my state and not have the option to vote for an R congressman in another district outside of where I live.
Also, there are a lot more congressional races than Senate seats. Some States have congressional races going on that don’t have a senate seat up for election this year. That’s how you can get Democrat congressional wins with Republican Senate wins.
Dare I say it?
The President has coattails.
Yep.
5.56mm
‘The same group that predicted President Hillary would win with less than a 5% chance of Trump pulling a miracle’
not really; in the last weeks of the 2016 campaign, Silver determined that Trump’s actual chances were better than 40%, which got him in hot water with his minions...
At this point in 2016, he had Trump < 14% (I thought it was 5%). He did bring it up to 28.6% on election day (actually down, as he had it at 35% a few days earlier). Neither of us were quite correct, but our memories were more correct than he was in calling the election.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Has the history on a graph at the bottom.
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