Posted on 10/09/2018 4:49:06 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Major Hurricane Michael is churning toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast. Florida Governor Rick Scott declared a state of emergency Monday for 35 counties with mandatory coastal evacuations in the FL Panhandle. 1,250 National Guard troops are aiding the process and more than 4,000 more placed on standby.
FEMA is already on the ground in Florida; other federal agencies are also preparing to assist people in the storm's path.
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey on Monday declared a state of emergency for the entire state. Georgia Governor Nathan Deal issued a state of emergency for 92 counties ahead of Hurricane Michael landfall.
Meanwhile, Tallahassee city government (Andrew Gillum, Mayor & D'Rat FL Gubernatorial candidate) offices are "closed until further notice." Tallahassee International Airport is suspending commercial flight activity as 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday but expects to resume activity on Thursday.
The U.S. military moved its aircraft from the Panhandle on Monday. Roughly 50 F-22 stealth fighter jets — valued around $150 million each — have been relocated from the Tyndall Air Force Base, while the U.S. Navy said it is moving all its training aircraft from Pensacola.
Energy Production The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) on Tuesday estimated that around 726 MMcf/d (28.4%) of natural gas production and 670,831 b/d (39.5%) of oil production in the GOM had been shut in ahead of the storm.
As of midday Tuesday, 75 platforms and three rigs had been evacuated, while eight dynamically positioned rigs had been moved out of the storm’s path as a precaution, according to BSEE.
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Channels
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar New Orleans, LA
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Mobile AL/Pensacola FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Panama City, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Tallahassee, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Tampa Bay, FL
I just spent the last few minutes watching a Panama City TV station via the internet. They’re starting to get the outer bands of Michael, causing downpours and thunderstorms.
They’re pretty nervous about this one. Even so, some have chosen to stay put. I am of the opinion that those who do are nuts.
I don’t think any spot in Panama City Beach is high enough above sea level to escape the storm surge.
please lord slow this storm down and clear of any heavy population centers .
I know people 6-8 miles inland during Katrina that got over 6’ of water in their buildings. The surge pushes up the back bays and rivers.
Good night from out West. Best of luck to all in this storm’s path.
With the geography of the Bend, which is unfamiliar to me, how far inland could floodwaters push, and is this storm dumping more rain than others? The graphic shows a cat’s eye with black all around.
Here’s a link to the NHC storm surge forecast as of 11 PM last night.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/033350.shtml?inundation#contents
From the National Storm Surge Hazard Maps
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Wow—storm surge reaches almost to Tallahassee. Eeeesh...
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 28.3N 86.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 32.1N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 34.4N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 36.8N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 13/0600Z 43.5N 59.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 49.5N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0600Z 52.0N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Beven
Eeyyowww. NHC predicting 145 mph @ landfall.
I’m afraid one of the prettiest places in the Panhandle - Wakulla Springs - is gonna get whacked badly.
If that forecast is accurate, Tyndall AFB is the location it will landfall.
This storm will alter the landscape well inland.
Thanks for your service here, posting these threads.
Having lived in FL for oh, 30+ years, I can freely state this one is going to be very bad. The storm surge is going to wipe away entire beach towns. Just...gone.
When you combine ocean floods of 10+ feet with 100+ mph sideways rain, very little survives. It’s like a firehose attacking a barbie doll house.
Stick your hand outside a car window going 100mph. For an hour. In a rainstorm. Now think of that blasted at your house. With 10 feet of floodwater. And pounding 15 foot waves on top.
Unreal.
I’m familiar with Cape San Blas as some close friends used to own a place there, and we went several times. I expect it to be leveled and cut through if this doesn’t weaken. It’s close to where all the spaghetti models have this thing going ashore, on the dirty side.
Ugly.
We’re scheduled to go down to PCB in two weeks, on the west end, near the Bay/Walton county line. Perhaps it won’t be hit too hard.
October is the best month to visit, imo. Crowds gone, yet water still warm enough to swim.
Gulf County? Looks like a reasonable move if so.
I sure hope people have heeded the evac orders...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.