Posted on 10/07/2018 10:07:16 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Mitchell: The NHC has issued a Public Advisory Update indicating Tropical Storm Mitchell has formed about 90 miles South of Cozumel, Mexico. Current forecast predicts Mitchell will reach hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in the Northern GOM. Landfall is estimated by 96 hours.
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Always enjoy updates
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1100 NHC Discussion:
Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In
addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf
Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of
the storm’s exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
given by local officials.
Thanks for that info. I hope it will be moving fast as you say.
At the Tortugas,Pulaski, winds are up now sustained 28-30 knots from the East, baro down a little to 29.82 and air temp is a cool 78.3. No water temp of course it's NOAA,they don't fix anything.
At buoy #42003 some 200 miles West of Naples Fla. which is pretty close to Michael's possible track winds are once again East at 21-27 knots.Baro is 29.81 even though it's further away then Tortugas and water temp,this is very interesting, is 84.9 degrees. This means lots of warm fuel for this storm assuming other conditions don't destroy it's potential for becoming a hurricane. Bears watching for the Northern Gulf.
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Thank you for your valuable info!
From the 0500 NHC Discussion:
With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official
intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast.
Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures
are expected to support continued strengthening...
The new NHC track forecast has also been adjusted westward close
to the consensus aids. Overall the track guidance is in fairly good
agreement up until landfall along the FL Panhandle or FLa Big Bend,
which has yielded a fairly confident track forecast.
Pssssst...countries have borders, states have statelines.
Good morning and Thanks
Pass along your trite info to the NHC while the rest of us prepare our property for a potential major hurricane. Thank you.
Oh pleeeeze....
That’s worth it’s own thread.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018
...Michael expected to become a hurricane very soon...
...Heavy rainfall and strong winds spreading across western Cuba...
Summary OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...
FL Governor Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency and he has temporarily suspended his campaign for U.S. Senate due to the storm threatening Florida.
Joe B. just posted his Monday morning update, and he’s concurring with the assessment above: major hurricane strike near Appalachicola in the Wed/Thursday time period - possibly overnight.
Mike could reach a Cat 4 strength... but sounds like he’s leaning toward a Cat 3 at landfall.
AFTER THAT... while the strength gets reduced, the remnants may cross over toward Macon and then to the Eastern parts of North and South Carolina. It should be faster, but this is still the same region that Florence flooded out a month ago.
Thanks for your info. I will be out until nearly noon today. I expect Michael will be upgraded to hurricane status, with new watches/warnings by the 1100 update. Will post updates as soon as I return.
Will be watching... this one is sneaking up on everybody.
Looks like almost all of Florida will get TS force winds, and soon, too!
Ft. Walton Beach-Destin here.............................Go EAST MICHAEL!........
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