Posted on 10/03/2018 4:18:28 PM PDT by mandaladon
New Jersey has given America a lot of great things: juicy tomatoes every summer, some of the best reality shows known to mankind, and Bruce Springsteen’s beautiful tortured soul. I am personally indebted to the state, having learned how to put eyeliner on the inside of my lower lid from a New Jersey girl.
This year, it’s giving us something else: an unexpectedly close U.S. Senate race — yet another exciting little storyline in a year of news cycles that won’t quit. It is not a development that Democrats are happy about.
New Jersey’s race pits Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez against Republican Bob Hugin. The “classic” version of our model gives Menendez about an 8 in 9 chance of winning the race — not bad, you might say! And then you’d look at the recent polls and maybe not say that quite as loudly. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll out Wednesday shows Menendez leading 43 percent to 37 percent among likely voters, within the margin of error. Two other recent surveys — one by Vox Populi Communications and one by Stockton University — also showed the race within the low single digits.
If you consider that Menendez won his 2012 election by 19.5 points, you can start to see why Democrats are getting nervous about the race. So actually you might say, not great, Bob!
If Menendez really is in trouble in New Jersey, that’s one more strike against the Democrats’ already long odds — 2 in 7 — at taking back control of the Senate. Around the rest of the country, Democrats in red states are battling for survival or to win seats held by Republican incumbents. The last thing the party needs is a supposedly sure bet slipping away.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
I’ll believe it when I see it.
How sweet it would be to take WV,IN,ND *and* NJ!
Exactly.
In my New Jersey household we have four votes for Hugin (including a first-time voter) and zero votes for the felon. Plus yard signs will go up.
I live in NJ. I see a lot of Hugin signs more than Menendez signs. I have not seen a Menendez sign in 12 years.
Mo. too.
If the Republicans win New Jersey, that could well be an early sign of a red wave.
That’s because all the Menendez signs were on Epstein Island.
RealClearpolitics has Texas as “toss-up.” No way. That means they’re skewing leftward of reality. That 2-point deficit for Hugin is probably more like a 2-point lead.
I don’t believe enough normal Americans remain in New Groinsey.
Winning! Not tired.
Yeah, I am tired of getting excited about a on-off poll showing a close race in an iron clad blue state. Don’t get me wrong. I would break out the good bourbon on election night if this happened, but I imagine that we have better prospects elsewhere.
Polls ALWAYS have a few percent bias for the Rats. Always. Bank on it.
Ditto.
Hugin’s not pro-life, so I’ll take it as a victory for the party of Collins et al. If it happens at all.
“Stockton University Poll has Hugin at 43 Menendez 45 “
An incumbent who is under 50% is not likely to win! The undecideds will break for the challenger.
Every election cycle we hear that NJ is in play in some way. And then it isn’t. The state is so corrupt, it is almost impossible for a Rep to win a statewide election.
Not going to happen. The demhole wins by 5
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