Why Trump is right on North Korea

If the Singapore summit had been a Broadway production, it would have been closed by now due to a critical panning. The U.S. media has largely dismissed the event as a typical piece of Trump showbiz without much substance. The Singapore Declaration is seen as lacking details to support Pyongyang's promise to denuclearize, with Trump falling victim to the trickery of a wily Oriental despot.

Such an assessment has been supported by professional Korea watchers at think tanks in Washington, most of whom have a national security background and view the Korean peninsula through a Cold War lens.

Trump is reportedly furious that the U.S. media has not given him more credit for the summit. He may have a point. The dominant storyline ignores several benefits of the summit. The most important, of course, is that it has averted the path to war that the U.S. and North Korea appeared to be traveling on just six months ago.

Trump has been criticized for making big concessions to Kim Jong-un without getting much in return. But the U.S. president took the first step in breaking a long stalemate and establishing an atmosphere of trust by meeting the North Korean leader and agreeing to suspend military exercises in South Korea.

Personal rapport is particularly important in Korean culture if one wants to achieve results. Moreover, he showed willingness to make the first concession in what is a big power/small power relationship, something that would also be highly valued in a Korean context.

These measures will encourage Pyongyang to undertake denuclearization if it believes that Washington is ending its "hostile policy" and is no longer intent on relying solely on intimidation to get its way.

Moreover, the transactions were not only one way. North Korea has promised to halt its nuclear and missile tests while talks continue, while it has begun to destroy some of its nuclear and missile testing facilities.

The Singapore Declaration should be viewed as a mission statement rather than as a final product. A lot more may be going on underneath the surface than what has been publicly revealed, something that was hinted at by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo when he said that "not all of that [preliminary] work [before the summit] appeared in the final document, but [there were] lots of other places where there were understandings reached."

If dialogue falters with Pyongyang, Trump easily resume the military exercises and reasonably put much of the blame on Kim after making his "good faith" effort to meet him.

One other big potential result from the summit is that it could peel away North Korea from China's orbit. Direct talks between Washington and Pyongyang have sidelined Beijing, which traditionally has liked to play the role of mediator between the two countries.

China's anxiety over this development may be one reason why Chinese President Xi Jinping met Kim three time in recent months. Kim could be seeking to reduce his country's dependence on China by forging closer ties to the U.S. and South Korea.

Such a strategic shift on the Korean peninsula would benefit the U.S. in its much bigger game of confronting Beijing over trade and other issues as part of a plan to contain China.

Trump appears ready to exploit the serious strains in ties between Beijing and Pyongyang that began after Kim came to power in 2011. It is noteworthy that Xi only sought to improve relations with Kim after Trump started laying the groundwork for the Singapore summit.

No doubt Kim will play China off against the U.S. to strengthen his negotiating leverage. But any opening to the U.S. will weaken North Korea's value to China as a strategic buffer to the American military presence in South Korea. Kim may be willing to join the bandwagon in Asia that views growing Chinese expansion as a strategic threat, particularly given Korea's historical fear of China's dominance.

Trump seems to have recognized that the previous U.S. policy of imposing economic sanctions on North Korea has been counterproductive. It drove North Korea to increase its dependence on China, while encouraging it to accelerate its nuclear and missile programs. A policy of engagement instead could encourage Kim to modernize the North Korea's economy and moderate its behavior.

Trump's outreach to Kim would deny China the opportunity to use North Korea as a card to play against the U.S., Japan and South Korea. Beijing, for example, earlier tried to use its role as mediator with Pyongyang to persuade Trump not to impose tariffs on Chinese products. That gambit will no longer work as Trump forges direct contacts with Kim.

Instead of the Singapore summit being a debacle for the U.S., it could set the stage for a clear victory for U.S. interests in Northeast Asia.

A very fine analysis... and also a very hopeful one.

I think We The People hired the right guy to solve the North Korea problem :- )

The press likes to talk about Trump’s Reality Show in Singapore. But to Trump, I’m sure the results are not particularly surprising considering the tough political opponents he faced in building skyscrapers in New York and Chicago.

It’s all in the Art of the Deal. Trump has proving that business competence is a more reliable measure of government results than working in Congress or even being a State Governor.

It’s all in the Art of the Deal.

Yes. I recently read Trump’s book. Not all that much about free-market deal making.

But a huge amount about forging deals among government power brokers. That is superb training for what President Trump is doing now.

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