Posted on 06/21/2018 2:22:19 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
North Korean strongman Kim Jong-un’s latest visit to Beijing this week cannot obscure the fact that China, once the primary conduit between Washington and Pyongyang, is at risk of being largely left on the outside. The White House has eroded China’s leverage by establishing a direct telephone link — a virtual hotline — to Mr. Kim.
In fact, U.S. President Donald Trump, by directly engaging Pyongyang over a nuclear and peace deal, has effectively cut out the middleman, China.
Beijing, which values North Korea as a strategic buffer against the U.S. military presence in South Korea, has reason to be suspicious of Mr. Kim’s overtures to the United States and the Trump administration’s direct dealings with Pyongyang. At the centre of Mr. Trump’s North Korea diplomacy is an effort to marginalize China’s regional role.
North Korea is China’s only formal military ally. A 1961 friendship treaty obligates China and North Korea to aid each other if attacked. But bilateral relations have soured since Mr. Kim assumed power in late 2011, and Chinese analysts criticized the pact as outdated.
Today, Beijing fears being sidelined in its own strategic backyard. It is apprehensive that, just as it turned against the Soviet Union after the its historic “opening” of relations with the United States under Richard Nixon in the early 1970s, its estranged ally, North Korea, could similarly switch allegiances. Mr. Kim, however, seems more interested in achieving a limited goal − rebalancing his foreign policy by mending fences with the United States so as to lessen North Korea’s economic and security reliance on its historical rival, China....
(Excerpt) Read more at theglobeandmail.com ...
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Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and the author of nine books, including the award-winning Water: Asia’s New Battleground.
China stands to gain a docile neighbor and a good trading partner, as the North Korean economy ramps up.
China couldn’t have been real thrilled with nukes on it’s border, and a guy who didn’t seem to be all that stable, controlling them.
If North Korea becomes a good trading partner with China and the rest of the planet, it would probably downsize it’s military as we telegraph we’ll downsize our presence in the South.
Seems to me like a situation where everyone stands to gain.
In the early days of North Korea upgrading it’s infrastructure, China could see a lot of commerce with the nation.
We could withdraw our forces tomorrow. The South Korean Army was strong enough to resist invasion when I was there under Carter and Reagan. Our troops are merely a tripwire to get us into the fight. They haven’t been needed for DMZ defense for a long time and don’t serve in that capacity now.
Who fought in the Korean War?
Only North Koreans?
This was to let China know, it wasn’t going to win helping the North.
The most important thing for China is that the Koreas are not united. That’s what they really feared.
China stands to benefit by not having a crazy nuclear power next to it.
China stands to benefit by not having a crazy nuclear power next to it.
BS article.
I agree. The idea that China needs NK as a “buffer” against the US military is laughable. We have hundreds of billions of dollars in trade with them, much to their advantage. They may wish we were gone so they could have complete military hegemony in the region, but they know damned well we aren’t going to attack them with 30,000 troops. But we might attack NK if they keep their nukes, though that seems unlikely now. So it’s a win for them too.
I agree with your points there. Thanks for the response.
I would be happier if the current *South* Korean govt was right-minded and pro-American, but they’re not. Also, Putin is making sure Russia stays involved.
Maybe...I’d be more optimistic about everybody having something to gain if the leadership of NK’s neighbore like China/Russia were different and less anti-American...but the future bodes well certainly.
I think the article is referring to the short term (trade war) etc...China was using North Korea as leverage...
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