Posted on 05/31/2018 12:28:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Last December, Democrat Doug Jones won a Senate race in Alabama by defeating a horribly flawed Republican candidate Roy Moore. For the first time, it appeared that the Democrats had a plausible path to winning control of the U.S. Senate in 2018. The Republican advantage was trimmed to a 51-49 margin and a net change of two seats would make New York Senator Chuck Schumer the new Senate Majority leader.
To win the Senate, all the Democrats had to do was win GOP seats in Arizona and Nevada and successfully defend all of their incumbents. At the time, the Democrats had a double-digit lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot and being opposed to President Trump seemed to be all that was needed. It looked like the Democrats were poised to ride a blue wave back to power.
My, how times have changed!
Shortly after Doug Jones won that special election in Alabama, the Republicans in Congress cut taxes and eliminated the Obamacare mandate. Having demonstrated that they could do something that their voters wanted, the GOP prospects began to improve. Now, with the elections just six months away, it seems that Republican are more likely to gain seats in the Senate rather than lose control.
Sure, it's still possible that the Dems could pick up seats in Arizona and Nevada. But, such an outcome is far from a sure thing as both races are now toss-ups.
And, even if Schumer's party wins both of those races, the chances of successfully defending all of the vulnerable Democratic incumbents is increasingly in doubt. The Dems are playing defense hoping to hang on to five Senate seats in states that President Trump won by double digits -- West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana. On top of that, Florida Governor Rick Scott has entered the fray to challenge Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in a toss-up state. Early indications are that Scott has all the energy and momentum in the race.
The numbers clearly favor the GOP. If, for example, the Democrats pick up BOTH toss-up races in Arizona and Nevada, the Republicans need to win just one of the other six competitive races to keep the Senate at a 50-50 tie. With Vice President Mike Pence empowered to cast the deciding vote, the GOP would remain in control.
At this moment in time, however, it seems like the Republicans should expect to do much better than a mere 50-50 tie in the Senate. There is certainly a chance they could win at least one of the toss-up Senate races in either Arizona or Nevada (especially if Martha McSally wins the Republican nomination in Arizona).
Beyond that, Democrats Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly face uphill battles in Missouri and Indiana. It's very easy to imagine the R's picking up at least one of those seats. Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is probably a slight underdog in her North Dakota re-election bid. In West Virginia, Joe Manchin's personal popularity may be enough to overcome the fact that President Trump carried the state by 42 points -- but it will probably be very close. And, as always, Florida remains a pure toss-up.
Add it all up, and the Democrats need to pull an inside straight to avoid losing seats in the Senate this November.
Duh...
Don’t worry.
They’ll find a way to screw it up.
They always do...................
I wish that was a joke.
Me too...................
Wha hoppen to muh blue wave?
Big bump to that.
Its their specialty. Republicans are largely passive and simply do not have a winning mindset.
Nose holding time in NV. No way can we let Jackie Rosen take Hellers seat despite his “issues”. Sharon angle is running against mark amodei but she seems a little wack-o-doodle to me for that house seat.
Too busy pandering to their donors and scr#wing Americans.
Exactly right. They only put on the conservative act just before elections. The moment after they get back into office its right back to RINOland.
And yet all at risk Democrat Senators are rated at worst as Toss Up. Despite Trump carrying the state and certain Dems are trailing in polls.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
4 out of 6 predictions sites have not had an update in 6 weeks.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
SHEESE!
Eight R’s up vs. 24 for D’s (approx.).
It’s going to be a BLOODBATH for the Dems in November.
A frickin’ honest to God bloodbath!
Tester in Montana is dragging his boat anchor and unpopular, another R gain
President Trump needs EVERY vote from his base this November. Winning would be nice, but a devastating, crushing defeat of the Democrats would be much better. Make it happen through prayer and dedicated effort.
“For the first time, it appeared that the Democrats had a plausible path to winning control of the U.S. Senate in 2018.”
No serious analyst or person believed that then. Not even PLAUSIBLE.
Everyone knew immediately after the 2016 election that there were 10 Dim seats up in 2018 from states won by Trump. And, overall, there were 24 Dim seats to 9 GOP seats up in 2018.
A person would have to be pretty stupid to think Dims have a chance to gain the Senate.
But that won’t stop the GOP from trying to scare people into believing it.
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