Posted on 05/24/2018 12:14:32 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
If we dont have a lot of experience projecting a midterm election from special election results. you had asked me six months ago who I thought would win control of the House of Representatives in 2018, I wouldnt have hesitated before answering, Its early, but Democrats are heavily favored, although conventional wisdom has been very slow to catch up.......
Things have changed. If the election were held today, its not clear who would hold the chamber. I might put a thumb on the scale for Republicans, but right now and it is still early the House is likely to be close. There are three things to consider:
1. Trumps job approval has increased........
2. The generic ballot has moved.........
3. Special elections are an unproven metric.....
... but until we have more experience seeing how models based upon them perform, we should prefer established metrics like job approval and the generic ballot.
Second, these special elections all involve open seats. The one set of elections that did not involve open seats exclusively in Virginia and New Jersey brought about a set of results that are a lot less encouraging for Democrats. They won in Hillary districts and lost Trump districts. If this is replicated in 2018, Democrats would fall just shy of winning the House.
Finally, many of those elections took place when the presidents job approval was at sub-40 levels. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Democrats margin has narrowed as the Republicans position has improved.
Can we say with certainty how the Battle for the House will play out? Absolutely not. Six months is several lifetimes in politics. But there is little doubt that the Republicans chances have improved over the past five months, perhaps dramatically so. That is noteworthy, and the CW should adjust accordingly.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Read the whole thing...it's not long and gets right to the point...If we treat the mid-terms like the 2016 general election, We Win!
The pundits still don’t believe that ordinary people are as angry as they are - which is angrier than two years ago, as if that were possible.
Things are looking good and will get better as Spygate continues to consume the Left.
Do not think this is not a fight...we must keep Congress and get the Senate. Rosenstein' refusal to deliver papers to this (Oversight Committee) Call your Reps and demand they over ride Rod Jay Rosenstein the Deputy Attorney General for the United States Department of Justice's REFUSAL to deliver the papers the (Oversight Committee) NEEDS.
This is now about the mid-terms and about America and the Constitution...every citizen needs to take action to stop this criminal abuse by the Elites in both parties.
I expect major fireworks coming from both sides in the run up. Every election these days is sort of “for all the marbles”, but 2018 may determine the fate of the Trump Presidency, and the Trump Presidency is an existential threat to the Democrats, just as a premature end to it would be an existential threat to the GOP.
It’s likely that the campaign will be about the competing narratives on the 2016 election: Russiagate versus Spygate, with successively more dramatic revelations leading up to election day. Strap in!
Some folks still haven’t gotten Trump and his supporters, and they never will.
Others are slowly coming around.
Still others had the mental faculties to ‘get it’ from June of 2015 or shortly thereafter.
We’ll pick up seats in the House and Senate.
It’s a done deal.
They always doubt Trump and his support.
Whew,... some folks need perpetual help don’t they.
The MSM-Democrats will as a result immediately launch a new Russia Russia Russia witch hunt. Russian Collusion 2.0.
What is the biggest factor is who will be speaker...look at how Ryan (spineless self-serving rino) has snaked through as little as is possible for our President , McConnel does the same in the senate . Losing ones soul runs rampant in DC . I won’t believe it until I see it , the rest is just theatrics on a political scale .
Yoe, we’re not going to sit back and do nothing.
That was factored into my comments.
We are going to do the things necessary to make sure it happens just as I said.
I understand where you’re coming from though.
Its going to be all about turnout again. The dems have no mo. Who on their side feels energized? Other than the true loons?
Midterms have lousy turnouts in general, we need to storm this one. Dems will be cheating like never before. But, now we have an administration that is on to them.
November Red Wave coming!!
I agree. I see the base staying fired up and eager. I see no danger of complacency.
The key will be getting out the vote. The Dems are turning people off every day and driving them toward us.
The democRATs are an existential threat to these United States.
The democRATs are an existential threat to these United States.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
So are the Bush League Republicans.
They are hell bent on turning the USA into North Mexico.
Bingo.
The demonicRATs will impeach Trump. Guaranteed.
The Bush League Republicrats won’t.
Choose wisely.
Perhaps. But if that is true, then repubs will be hurt since the repubs have more seats.
Wait (snort).
Trump has not yet even begun to fight.
Nothing happens as crime after crime is revealed.....bu why should it?
Unload on Democrats closer to midterms.
Trump’s got plenty on all of them.
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