Posted on 04/25/2018 4:20:28 AM PDT by Pinkbell
In a Tuesday night special election race on Long Island, Democrats flipped a long-Republican State Assembly district to mark their 40th Trump-era takeover of a GOP-held seat. The seat had been held by a Republican since 1978.
The New York State Assembly is firmly in Democratic hands, and control of the New York state Senate is caught up in intra-caucus weirdness, so the flip has no particular concrete result. But it does serve as a further sign of the strong wind at Democrats’ backs downballot in the Trump era, with their candidate Steve Stern running 11 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margin in the seat and 15 points ahead of Barack Obama’s 2012 margin.
The race was also notable as yet another example of the GOP trying and failing to make the Salvadoran street gang MS-13 into the Democratic candidate’s running mate.
Unlike in some other races where the GOP has played the MS-13 card, the gang really does have a substantial presence in Suffolk County, and it’s not a totally unreasonable issue for candidates to talk about. But in practice, the issue seems to be falling flat here as elsewhere.
Democrats are cleaning up in special elections According to an extremely useful comprehensive spreadsheet compiled by Daily Kos, across 70 special elections in 2017, Democrats ran 10 points ahead of Clinton and 7 points ahead of Obama’s 2012 results.
Those numbers have accelerated into 2018. Across 27 races, Democrats are running 21 points ahead of Clinton and 10 points ahead of Barack Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at vox.com ...
Debbie Lesko won in Arizona in a reliably red district won by Trump by 20 points. She won by 5. The NYT map showed the areas of vote swing all trended blue. The win is cautionary. Connor Lamb won a reliably red district in a highly publicized election. The NYT map showed areas all trended blue.
There is a problem here. The Democrats have flipped over 40 seats. Seats we have won we have won by smaller margins than we should have. I post this because I think this is a big warning. Republicans need to find out what is going. Are Republicans not turning out? If so, why? Are more independents voting Democrat? What are people angry at? Is this a referendum on Trump or the GOP Congress or both? What issues are important to voters? What can get people out to vote? Figure it out now, and the GOP should try to pass another piece of legislations before 2018. I'd like to see something with respect to immigration particularly because they might be out of luck if they lose the 2018 elections in terms of getting anything done.
The bottom line is, the party in power often loses the midterms in the President's first year and turns the House to the opposing party. Let Obama's Presidency be a cautionary tale. They lost over 1,000 seats, and he took a "shellacking" in his first midterms. Obama's popularity wasn't enough to save other candidates down ballot. Trump has shown some similar problems with Alabama, Saccone, etc. The GOP must find out what they can do to maximize turnout now. Granted, a lot can happen between now and November, but it is rapidly approaching.
Article in VOX -— Therefore BS!
you’re joking right???
No!
Agree, and if the House flips, the Rats will impeach Trump and then there will be H**l to pay.
The GOP also flipped a Rat seat too.
So the GOP actually won in New York yesterday? Whew! That’s a relief! We’ve got nothing to worry about!
Vox made up the election results? The Republican won? You realize this isn’t the only source reporting this?
NY republicans are called “democrats” in most of the country
Republican messaging is crap. The GOP ecosphere thinks they can keep running like its 2000 and win and that just isn’t true especially outside the deep red states.
I fully expect the republicans to lose the house this fall, their messaging isn’t giving the non traditional Trump votersany reason to show up. Dems are going to crawl over glassto vote and you think just talking to your typical base will be enough? You are completely wrong.
R better get their act together and start to realize they need the MAGA non traditional voters and start engaging them, and showing through legislative deeds that you understand and respect them. Simply calling the dem a pelosi clone or rubber stamp isNOT going to get them to show up for you.
If the Dems run openly in impeachment that would save the GOP from its own incompetence because that will motivate the MAGA voter to show up, but the same old tired messaging that you have been using since 2000 that never got them to show up and vote for you before 2016 isn’t going to getthem to show up and vote for you in 2018.
I fully expect 10 house seat losses at least from pa/mi/Wi and OH alone this fall if they don’t get their act together.
No one cares about the GOPe. The cautionary tale is that the GOPe brand is not the Trump brand. The GOPe is the swamp and they aren’t fooling anyone. Democrats might be enthusiastic because they hate Trump but explain why anyone should wake up out of bed and waste their time voting for Repukes? I would be completely fine with the Dems taking contriol of the house if they would stop with all the impeachment crap and it seems like they might consider doing just that. They might end up backing Trump on infrastructure or trade which is more than the Repukes will do. Is the threat that if the GOPe doesn’t keep the house there won’t be a wall? Ha!
How many seats have we flipped, though, nationwide since 2016? I don’t know the numbers on it, but they are certainly flipping more than we are.
Bohemian ran as a Rep/Dem
http://news.wbfo.org/post/142nd-assembly-district-goin-bohen-over-burke
And read he said he will caucus with Dems
Sorry autocorrect meant Bohen not bohemian
This isn’t fake news- it’s’ made up news!
Messaging? Um, you need results you can point to before you have to worry about ‘messaging’.
Oh look freepers, it’s negative nabob troll Pinkbell, come to tell us how doomed we are.
I’m sorry but flipping seats in an overwhelmingly blue state, is not shocking. As the GOP voters age out or move out of NY, you’re going to have reliably Red seats go blue. If the Dems start flipping seats in Red States, then that’s a problem.
NYS GOP is an acronymic oxymoron. And with makers fleeing the state and not enough takers coming in to make up for it, NYS is gonna lose at least one House seat after the next census. NYS has lost almost half of them over the last 60 years or so. The Dems are crowing about winning in a state circling the bowl. They can have the win with my blessing.
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