Posted on 04/16/2018 7:43:10 AM PDT by mandaladon
Will Democrats ride a blue wave in November, or … just get the blues? Assumptions have run high that Nancy Pelosi & Co will have both history and an unpopular president on their side, generating enough momentum to swamp out Republicans and reclaim control of the House. Paul Ryan’s retirement, and more than two dozen others in the House Republican caucus, seems to indicate an acknowledgment of a coming Democratic tsunami.
Don’t tell American voters that, however. A new poll from ABC and the Washington Post puts the two parties close to a virtual dead head in the generic congressional ballot:
With the Republicans’ House majority at risk, 47 percent of registered voters say they prefer the Democratic candidate in their district, while 43 percent favor the Republican. That four-point margin compares with a 12-point advantage Democrats held in January. Among a broader group of voting-age adults, the Democrats’ margin is 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent. …
Democrats hold an advantage ahead of the midterm elections, but a Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that edge has narrowed since January, a signal to party leaders and strategists that they could be premature in anticipating a huge wave of victories in November.
The poll finds that the gap between support for Democratic vs. Republican House candidates dropped by more than half since the beginning of the year.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Slip slidin’ away...
No no no no..!! They are going to win big!
In fact, they expect such a huge democrat turnout that they’ve had to extend the voting another day. All Republican voters are to vote on Tuesday and all the Democrats on Wednesday.
"...blue wave..."
There is no shifting voting block. The media has galvanized people to one side or the other with their orwellian propoganda. There only variable in these elections is how the individual races themselves are run, and for whom. No red nor blue are going to wash over
Nationwide poll, diluted by people polled in blue states. Naturally not practical poll in areas not solid red or solid blue.
Most candidates in open seats, toss up seats, tilt seats lean seat have yet to chosen.
GOP does better with names versus generic. I heard this is often true.
Paul Ryan’s retirement, and more than two dozen others in the House Republican caucus
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Cheap Labor Express stooges are quitting before they are run out of office.
We now know we don’t have to accept Bush League Republicans as the only alternative to Democrats.
As always, pay attention to the D/R/I split in the sampling. If they go something like 40 D/32 R/28 I and then suddenly switch to 44 D/30 R/26 I, they’ve just opened up a six-point lead without any votes changing and they’ll report there’s a Blue Wave. Switch the sampling back the next month and it is shrieks of horror that the GOP is coming back — all according to whatever they want to run as “news” that week.
Good. It’s time to break the communist fever.
Gun control proposals have never achieved ANYTHING other than to lose elections for Democrats.
As General Honore said, they are Stuck on Stupid.
Democrats: the party of illegal aliens and sanctuary cities, abortion on demand, high taxes, division, identity politics, celebrities and gun control. What’s not to like?
LOL
Never, never forget that the most accurate polls are of likely voters. Not mentioned here. Likely voters always favor the GOP. Even more so for midterm elections.
Also, and more importantly, the generic ballot is not a good indicator of the House. In 2012 the GOP won the House by 33 seats and lost the overall vote for the House by a point. In 2016 the GOP won the House by 59 seats and won the overall House vote by only a point.
Things are not dire. At least for now.
“...they smoke pot and fail to vote on Election Day”
Problem: We on the right must unite or we’ll face a Dem House and Senate waiting for Eliz.Warren’s inauguration address. God forbid.
Just be aware: the poll on which this Hotair article is based is from the Compost and ABC Snooze.
Applying that principle, the polls told me that Trump had a better than even chance of winning back in 2016. You just had to read the fine print in the polls, and remove their fudge factors.
Things are not dire. At least for now.
Very interesting data. Thanks for posting.
Any chance you have the figures for that great year of 2010?
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