AZ CD8 early vote: Lesko crushing D

Arizona Votes Home Page ^ | 4/13/2018 | LS

[stevio]

I hear ya. The overconfidence of our side is cringe worthy.

[hsmomx3]

LOL...yes, I am a trustworthy American who turns in one ballot.

[deport]

There was no dem in that race only a Green. This has a Dem, Ind and other. The Pub has 48.75% of the vote so far.

Data here:
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

[discostu]

23% independent? Don’t be counting those chickens just yet.

[KC Burke]

This is the breakdown showing how Rs, Ds and Independents have returned mail-in ballots. There will be a split on Independents and some crossover, but it is looking good for Debbi.

She was not the first choice of FR posters but she is a conservative in the general sense.

[jmaroneps37]

Now HOW CAN THIS BE?? Isn’t the Blue Wave going to sweep the Republicans from the field before the election season even starts?

[Zhang Fei]

The last time Franks ran against a D, he beat him by 28%. Subtract 20% for incumbency, and the current GOP victory margin ought to be at least 8%. So if the R wins by 8%, that's an OK margin.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Trent Franks Incumbent	63.3%	172,809
	Democratic	Gene Scharer	35.1%	95,635
	Americans Elect	Stephen Dolgos	1.6%	4,347
Total Votes				272,791

[deport]

He’ll win but the margin may not be as large with
a dem and a ind. in the race.

[Theodore R.]

Well, the TX Demos are convinced they will remove TCruz. Even if they don’t quite remove him, they will still declare victory.

[LS]

The analysis I saw accounted for these. D needs +15. Won’t happen.

[LS]

Party breakdown.

[discostu]

Trump couldn’t possibly win either. Until they’re counting actual votes not just assuming people are towing party lines it all means absolutely nothing.

[Lurking Libertarian]

Now HOW CAN THIS BE?? Isn’t the Blue Wave going to sweep the Republicans from the field before the election season even starts?

The last election, the Republican won this seat with 67% of the vote. The Democrats are doing much better so far than they did in that election. So yes, the Republicans will certainly keep this seat, but if they underperform compared to historic standards that might well forebode a Democratic wave.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

Hate is what the Democrats live for.

[LS]

Nonsense. We knew Trump had won OH big one month out based on early votes.

I told you this at the time. We could measure the voting history of EVERY HOUSE in a key bellwether county.

[LS]

Note: this is no comparison. Ds didn’t even run a candidate Franks was so popular.

Today’s news is excellent.

[discostu]

Not nonsense. This is basically a poll, and polls are crap. You told me nothing at the time. Lesko might win but this “data” tells us absolutely nothing about the results. GOP always early vote more than Dem, especially in AZ. It means NOTHING. Overconfident at your leisure.

[bcr100]

The democrats do have the illegal vote though.

[NFHale]

Win it first.

THEN shove it up their collective.

[jmaroneps37]

“Now HOW CAN THIS BE?? Isn’t the Blue Wave going to sweep the Republicans from the field before the election season even starts?
The last election, the Republican won this seat with 67% of the vote. The Democrats are doing much better so far than they did in that election. So yes, the Republicans will certainly keep this seat, but if they underperform compared to historic standards that might well forebode a Democratic wave.”

As sureas day follows night say ANYTHING positive and comments like this come out. Look conservative including me are angry at the Ryan House. I’m a recovering Republican myself, but if you think Democrat will win in November with a promise to raise taxes repeal the Second Amendment, impeach Trump and erase the southern border I don’t think your mind can be changed. When these things mix with the several other real problems Democrats have - enthusiasm ON THE WHOLE - the McLaughlin report has the generic ballot at + 1 for Democrats (meaning they are actually down 3 by general understanding). Not even Larry and Charlie are sure of a Blue Wave.