[Zhang Fei]

The last time Franks ran against a D, he beat him by 28%. Subtract 20% for incumbency, and the current GOP victory margin ought to be at least 8%. So if the R wins by 8%, that's an OK margin.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Trent Franks Incumbent	63.3%	172,809
	Democratic	Gene Scharer	35.1%	95,635
	Americans Elect	Stephen Dolgos	1.6%	4,347
Total Votes				272,791

[deport]

He’ll win but the margin may not be as large with
a dem and a ind. in the race.