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And to civil war?

Well, maybe.

Civil war happens if and when the military chain of command becomes divided.

I don't care how many AR-15s there are in your gun safe, if you have to fight the USMC you don't have a civil war, you have a rebellion and a slaughterhouse.

I have said all along that a US political crisis could only lead to civil war if both political sides had a plausible claim to authority over the armed forces, or if the officers in charge of combat commands were divided into factions and some stopped taking orders from SECDEF.

Both of those things are now possible, but not yet at >10% probability.

Let's say, for example, that Trump were impeached by the House and removed by the Senate over transparently bogus charges. Let's say Ryan (Romney) and McConnell (Bush) conspired with Mueller to pull this off in a 48-hour period.

Trump would be out (legally) but not justly.

Then imagine Mattis announced he would not accept the result, but the CNO announced that the Navy would not take orders from (former) SECDEF Mattis. THEN you could have a war.

Or, new scenario, suppose all this sh*t is being coordinated from Obama's command post by Valerie Jarrett and Jeh Johnson. Suppose further that they have suborned the loyalty of a group of anti-Russia generals, who are working to protect Mueller and the FBI group behind the scenes.

As soon as the arrest warrants go out, tanks appear on the streets in DC, Trump and Pence vanish, and the internet goes down.

THEN, you could have a war, especially if Trump resurfaces at Mount Weather or on a warship and orders the disloyal generals arrested.