Posted on 01/10/2018 8:41:48 PM PST by 11th_VA
Next Tuesday’s special Senate election in northwestern Wisconsin will be the first indicator of whether a surge in Democratic electoral success last year around the country is coming to Wisconsin in 2018.
In the wake of President Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, and a tumultuous first year in office in which his job approval rating plummeted, Democrats received more votes than expected in state and federal special elections last year, even in races they lost, according to multiple reports.
There were 98 special legislative elections last year across the country, with Democrats picking up 11 seats held by Republicans, according to election-tracking website ballotpedia.com. That was the biggest gain for Democrats in at least seven years.
The political number-crunchers at fivethirtyeight.com reviewed the 2017 results and previous voting history in each district and found the Democratic vote total in special elections was 12 points higher than in previous elections.
Pollsters at ALG Research, a Washington-based research company that works with Democrats including Barack Obama’s campaign, drew a similar conclusion. They found Democrats in legislative special elections last year improved upon Obama’s 2012 vote percentage difference versus Mitt Romney in those same districts by 6 points and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 vote percentage difference versus Donald Trump in those districts by 12.1 points.
It’s unclear whether that Democratic voter enthusiasm will translate to a win in Wisconsin’s 10th Senate District. Obama lost the district by 6 points in 2012 and Clinton lost it by 17 points in 2016.
Next week’s special election pits Rep. Adam Jarchow, R-Balsam Lake, against St. Croix County medical examiner and Somerset School Board member Patty Schachtner, a Democrat from the town of Star Prairie who appeared on a 2006 episode of the reality TV show “Wife Swap.” Libertarian candidate Brian Corriea is also on the ballot.
(Excerpt) Read more at host.madison.com ...
Good. Thank you.
It's certainly possible that Voter ID reduced fraud in Wisconsin.
On the other hand, we saw the same pattern in Michigan and Pennsylvania - significant reductions in Black and Hispanic turnout for Hillary, compared to Obama.
If fraud reduction is responsible for Trump's victory in Wisconsin, then I am happy to give Trump his due.
I did vote for Trump, after all, but meaninglessly, in Seattle.
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