Posted on 11/12/2017 6:03:00 AM PST by Kaslin
There’s a new poll coming out today around 11 A.M. on the Alabama Senate race. It comes after a whirlwind week in the special election to decide who will replace Attorney Jeff Sessions’ vacancy. Supposedly, Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight got wind that it will show Democratic candidate and abortion extremist Doug Jones in the lead. If true, how much? We don’t know, but given the nature of the Alabama electorate, it’ll probably be within the margin of error, or maybe a step of two outside of that. Then again, it could show Jones with a rather solid lead in a deep red state. Either way, many will see the race as tightening. It may be, but I still find it difficult to believe that Republican Roy Moore will lose this election.
As the Hollywood Left’s inner core is exposed as rotten with all of the sexual abuse allegations, one has hit Mr. Moore. Four women accused him of being inappropriate with them while they were teenagers, one has accused the Senate candidate of molesting her when she was fourteen and he was thirty-two. The three other women were sixteen and eighteen at the time.
Another AL-SEN poll tmmw https://t.co/5PS9FzpHIE— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 12, 2017
I can report (unless my sources have failed me) that tomorrow will showcase the first public poll to show Doug Jones with a lead in the AL-Senate race. This race is very real.— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 12, 2017
Here's another one... 48-46 Moore-Jones... Gravis. One day poll, but you get the idea this race is VERY close right now. https://t.co/rKMsXDFBL5— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 12, 2017
Change Research has Moore 44 - Jones 40 in AL-Sen. Conducted from Nov 9 - 11. pic.twitter.com/YlH1SozLLz— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 12, 2017
So, how will this impact the race? Will it sink Moore? Nate Cohn of The New York Times says it’s possible, but doesn’t see any signs to show that Moore is in trouble either. As for the Luther Strange write-in element, Cohn still says that the GOP is favored to win. Strange was the appointed GOP replacement upon Sessions’ resignation; Moore defeated him in the primary. In his interview with Slate, Cohn said, “I think Alabama is basically as tough as it gets for Democrats” (via Slate) [bold text indicates Slate’s questions]
What about the minority turnout in Virginia and what it might portend? More than one-fourth of voters in Alabama are black, and Democrats are absolutely dependent on them turning out.
Black turnout was higher than we expected, but it was by about as much as turnout was up statewide. So there’s not much reason to think that the black share of the electorate was greater than we anticipated, based on turnout by precinct. We entered the elections with fairly low expectations of black turnout in Virginia compared to a presidential election. And in Alabama, as you pointed out, that would be problematic for Democratic chances.
I am going to ask you to speculate, but how much do you think this scandal might affect Moore’s chances to be elected next month?
My honest answer is that I don’t know. Alabama is an extremely conservative state that is deeply polarized along racial lines. Hillary Clinton might not even have received 15 percent of the white vote in Alabama last year. For Doug Jones to win, he might need to double that number. So this is not an easy task at all for the Democrats.
I am certainly open to the possibility that these allegations are enough to be a serious burden on Roy Moore’s chances, especially given that he has already shown some electoral weakness in Alabama in the past. But I don’t see any reason to assume he is in serious jeopardy either.
There has been some talk of a Republican write-in candidate, such as Luther Strange, who lost the Republican primary to Moore. That would make it a three-candidate race. What impact do you think that might have?
That’s also really tough to say. The thing I would want to point out, though, is that Alabama is a state where the Republicans would be favored even in a three-way race with two Republicans and a Democrat. Hillary Clinton received 34 percent of the vote in Alabama. The Democratic path to victory would require the Republicans to split the vote almost evenly. If a Republican had even a modest advantage among the two of them, that would be enough to swamp a 34 percent vote share.
Now Doug Jones is a relatively strong Democratic candidate, and Democratic turnout has been good in recent elections. And the polls have shown Jones in the low 40s, which is considerably better than Hillary Clinton. To the extent that that 41 or 42 percent vote share that polls imply is a result of moderate Republican voters who can’t vote for Roy Moore, then I think he would probably lose a lot of that support to a more typical Republican like Luther Strange. If that’s a reflection of higher Democratic turnout and enthusiasm, which I think is at least possible to some extent, then maybe Doug Jones would keep more of that vote share in a three-way race.
So, there you have it. Even with these new poll results, the favorite is still Moore, even with these allegations. Moore has seen his support among fellow Republicans evaporate, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee nixing their fundraising operations for him as well. Moore has denied the allegations and refused to step aside. The special election will be held on December 12.
And all the polls had Hillary Clinton winning the presidency. Who believes polls? Go vote.
Let’s look at the internals of the poll. Likely, another oversampling of Dems that the drive bys like to think actually represents things when it often does not.
Doug Jones is running lots of TV ads and attempting to portray himself as a conservative. Jones looks reasonable in the ads. It is quite a con job.
The Moore camp is doing almost nothing. I’ve seen like one Roy Moore TV ad. I don’t know where the money comes from but the Moore campaign needs to expose Jones for what he is. Instead the Moore camp is priding themselves on not going negative. I don’t think doing nothing and taking the higher ground works in this case for Moore.
Don’t believe the polls....Go Roy Moore....
It’s an attempt to get Moore to drop out. Boy, the establishment sure is scared of him!
How heavy did they oversample the Dems to get the requested result?
538 predicted Trump would lose no less than 7 times. They also predicted Brazil would win the last World Cup mostly due to the home venue. I do not have confidence in any work from 538.
I don’t know if it is just me, but when some jerk comes out about the allegations against Moore, the conversation moves quickly from the bogus sleaze story on to the “repugnant Christanity” aspect of Moore.
That is how you know this was all phony and lies.
In KY’s race for governor, Bevin was down by five points on Election Day. He won by 9.:-)
Breitbart polling says there is no change and that Moore is still up by 10.
“It is quite a con job.”
The Democrat Party is a con job.
IMHO
Is LESSER OF TWO EVILS a winning strategy in Alabama?
One candidate allegedly made crude, offensive remarks to teen girls.
The other candidate supports murder of babies.
Even if the allegations against Moore are true, is Moore the lesser of two evils?
Is it good strategy to actually and openly compare such issues?
FAKE POLLS
Opinion Savvy poll has Moore up by only 2 but the internals show 54% surveyed have college degree or higher. When vote is divided up by education of respondents, Moore is down 8 points with those who have college degree or higher, up 9 with those who have technical school, up 10 with those with HS diploma, and tied with those with no HS.
The Gravis poll internals break down respondents by education as 3% no HS, 22% HS diploma, 31% some college, 30% Bachelors Degree, and 14% Post Graduate. The same poll breaks down respondents by income as 18% under 30K, 22% as 30-50K, 31% as 50-100K, 12% as 100-50K, 7% as over 100K, (and 10% as ‘uncertain’ of their income!)
Unfortunately, low information voters don’t take the time to read the internals, and the Lamestream Media is counting on that as they crow about Moore going to lose.
Looking at the internals, do you really think this represents the typical AL voter (or the typical voter of any state)?
Pure propaganda.
Polls do not seek to determine the sense of the electorate, they are now tools for influencing how people vote.
Ignore them.
Gee this poll says different: http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/11/11/exclusive-alabama-polls-judge-roy-moore-maintains-double-digit-lead-over-democrat-doug-jones-before-after-wapo-smear/
.I have not seen any evidence of any crude, offensive remarks made to anybody.
Asking a girl for a date who doesn't want to date you is neither crude nor offensive until after the third "no, thanks".
Leaving aside the jailbait story, which is probably a lie (I believe the others), we have a 70 year old man who 40 years ago expressed quasi-sexual interest in healthy adult women who were more than ten years younger than he was at the time. That's all.
“How heavy did they oversample the Dems to get the requested result?”
They’re getting smarter than that nowadays. They oversampled people with college degree or higher (54% in one and 48% in another). Moore highly popular with those with technical school or HS only. See my earlier post for full internals.
FAKE POLLS
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