That was an amazing game tonight, quite the slugfest!! Rollercoaster ride for both teams and their fans.
I have no attachment to either team or city, but I did enjoy watching the fireworks!
13-12, an incredible score for a World Series game (or any baseball game).
I would think those odds would be higher.
This whole series has been a crazy ride. Home run derby in several games.
Go Astros!! #EarnHistory
MVP goes to the clown behind the plate who decided that the Dodgers deserved a strike zone 10% larger than that for the Astros.
I’ve always liked the Dodgers because I was born in L.A. but whoever wins will deserve it. Best Series in years. Possibly in decades.
Feh!
I have no dog or cat in this fight myself. The Astros stunned the Dodgers bigtime.
The odd thing was that in the NFL earlier Sunday, Baltimore completely destroys Miami 40-0. Funny how the ball game later that night features a blowout score, eh? If the Astros win, they pass the “never having won a championship” mantle down to the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, and Seattle Pilots/Milwaukee Brewers franchises.
When the Dodgers were up by 4, they had about a a 90 chance of winning the game. When the Astros were up by 3 going into the 9th, they had about a 95% chance of winning in regulation. Those percentages and the 62% are all about as meaningful as the 98% chance that Hillary had of winning the election.
Where did that 62% number come from? Somebody’s computer model? Vegas? Thin air. (There’s another expression for that one.)
Rough probabilities would be calculated as the Dodgers needing 2 favorable outcomes in 2 events (or trials). Assigning equal probabilities to either a favorable or unfavorable outcome one would reckon that the Dodgers have about a one in four chance right now:
1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4 = 0.25 or 25%.
The remaining probability, 1 - .25 = 75% belongs to the Astros.
Sophisticated computer models may model starting pitching, lefty-righty match ups, home field advantages, etc., but the outcomes over the long run tend to run about 50-50 on each game.
By the way, a small pedantic note on the difference between odds and probabilities, from a frequentist perspective. Probabilities are the ratio of favorable outcomes, to all outcomes. What I cited above are probabilities. Odds are a betting proposition. Odds give the ratios of two sides of a wager. If you believe that the probability that the Astros will win is 75%, then fairs odds would be 3:1. A wager of $3.00 dollars on the Astros wins $1.00, a wager of $1.00 on the Dodgers wins $3.00. The person betting on the Astros would win $1.00 three out of four times, and lose $3.00 once out of four, and on average he would be even. That’s a fair bet. The person betting on the Dodgers is the counterparty to the above wagers, and would come even in the long run, also. In a fair bet, on average, no money changes hands.
Differences in the perception of the odds is what makes wagering popular, often those differences are driven by emotional rather than rational choices. “Differences of opinion is why there are horse races.” I like to wager, when I perceive that the odds are in my favor. Especially with Yankees fans.
I’d jump on the Astros at 19-31 odds (38-62), winning $19, three times and losing $31, once in four trials or:
($19 x 3 - $31) = $26/4 = $6.50
An expectation value of $6.50 on a $31 dollar wager.
Ball seems obviously juiced for ratings to me and ended up taking away from the excitement. (apologize if someone brought it up. Only read thru 28 posts)
The game was on too late for my family, but we spent the week watching Game 6 of the Dodgers-Yankees World Series, and last night we started watching Game 4 of the 1978 Dodgers-Phillies NLDS (Doug Rau loaded the bases with no outs, and struck out Luzinski and made it through the innning with no runs). It turns out it was a happier way to spend our family time, (Besides, no TV and no time to find a live stream of the Dodgers-Astros game)
What a great series! I knew LA v Houston would be a great match up.
GO STROS!!!!!!
When I was young the series rarely went 7 games. Now that it is fixed and liberal it goes 7 all the time. Stop watching bull crap.
As a further note, the longest record for an MLB franchise to win it’s first World Series title still belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies who won their first title in 1980 (Pete Rose, Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton, Tug McGraw, etc).
This was 77 years after the World Series was first created in 1903 and 97 years after the Phillies first joined the National League in 1883. The Phillies had made previous appearances in the Series in 1915 against the Boston Red Sox and in 1950 (The Whiz Kids) against the New York Yankees. If the Astros win, it will be 55 years to their first title, as they joined the NL in 1962 as the Houston Colt 45s, along with the New York Mets.
Meaningless.
Oh, I hate sports media coverage of Yasiel Puig.
I think the Dodgers played so hard last night because playing against Verlander post-season is close to a sure loss, they wanted to have a cushion. In fact, that’s what I’m going to guess, Astros end the World Series with Verlander, game 6, Tuesday. It’s still been a fine World Series. If it is pushed to a game 7, then, LA has the advantage obviously.