Posted on 10/28/2017 5:44:32 PM PDT by Pinkbell
NEWPORT NEWS, Va. (WSET) - The latest poll from Christopher Newport University has Democratic candidate Ralph Northam in the lead to be Virginia's next governor.
The poll from the Wason Center for Public Policy shows Northam broke the 50 percent mark and extended his lead over Republican candidate Ed Gillespie.
The poll shows Northam is the choice for 50 percent of likely voters surveyed, while Gillespie is the choice of 43 percent.
According to the poll, Libertarian Cliff Hyra polled at 3 percent with 4 percent undecided.
(snip)
The poll shows Northam is the choice for 50 percent of likely voters surveyed, while Gillespie is the choice of 43 percent.
According to the poll, Libertarian Cliff Hyra polled at 3 percent with 4 percent undecided.
Northam has led Gillespie throughout the Wason Center’s tracking series.
In the benchmark poll, released September 25, Northam’s lead stood at 6 percent (47 percent to 41 percent).
It grew to 7% (49 percent to 42 percent) in the first tracking poll, released October 9, then shrank to 4 percent in the second tracking poll, released Oct. 17.
“As we approach Election Day and the structure of the likely electorate becomes clearer, the advantage appears to be opening up for the Democratic ticket,” said Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center. “We’re also seeing mounting evidence of a Trump Effect at the top of the ticket.”
The poll finds support in northern Virginia, the Richmond area, and Hampton Roads gives Northam widespread strength in the commonwealth's most populous regions.
It shows voters in more rural southwest and southside Virginia favor Gillespie.
According to the findings, Northam's demographic support is broad, as he leads among men and women, young and old, and African-Americans.
It shows Gillespie leads among white voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at wset.com ...
Fairfax County is to Virginia as California is to the USA.
Because, well, those illegal aliens are all likely democrat voters.
Those parasites who live in NOVA are, at most, 1/3 of the population of the Commonwealth. The remaining 2/3 of the population will have a lot to say on November 7th.
Maga voters will vote for ed.
Not demographics!! VOTER FRAUD.
Trump lost Virginia in the election. Trump’s approval rating is 33% in Virginia. According to the people behind this poll, Democrats are more motivated to turn out as a rebuke to Trump. Gillespie himself is not a Trump guy - didn’t even RT Trump’s endorsement. He’s establishment. Pence went instead. I know it’s Newsweak, but it does show just how much enthusiasm Democrats have right now:
http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-virginia-governors-race-694714
Thank you. That’s a very clear, though depressing, analysis.
I live in Fairfax and it makes me sad how liberal the county has become.
so a Democrat will probably win.
**************
Madam Hillary won by over 212,000 votes.
An abundance of rifles, cannons, and able bodied men ended any chance for freedom in VA in 1865.
No kidding. All last week one poll whose name I didn’t retain, had Gillespie up by 8 points. Could this sudden appearance of one showing a 7 point lead for the Rat be a “Hillary” type poll report, like the ones that were all over the media a year ago?
Not just demographics... with government spending surging, the swamp grows and the entrenched gov’t employees take over. Tough to see VA remaining competitive. Hope I’m wrong.
Yeah, it’s unfortunate. One could speculate - what would happen if Corey Stewart had won? He was the Trump candidate in the primaries, but he had little promotion from Bannon, Trump, etc. If he had won, some might argue that he might have done better as he could attract nontraditional Trump voters or conservatives who don’t want an establishment candidate. However, the converse is that the race would have been made into a Trump vs. Northam race in a state where Trump is not popular, so it could have been worse. The media would have made it a referendum on Trump, even though Trump lost Virginia and a Republican hasn’t been elected stateside in 8 years.
Perhaps Gillespie would have had a shot if Hillary was in office as Dems would naturally be less motivated and Republicans more so, but even then, they haven’t elected a Republican stateside in 8 years, so it’s a liberal state. I figure on a Northam win - best to just expect the worst. If something better happens, then it’s a nice surprise.
Two different polling outlets, but this outlet has had him up the whole time, although at one point it was only a 4 point lead. I did look at who they polled, and it was almost an equal number of Republicans and Democrats. They didn’t do the extra Democrat sampling going on the Presidential election.
No, Trump rallied for Strange, and he lost it big.
MAGA isn’t Trump folks... yes Trump is the figure head of MAGA but it’s the MAGA agenda that brings out voters and GOPe candidates have no credibility with the MAGA voter. Just because Trump may show up at a rally and make a pitch for a GOPe candidate doesn’t mean the MAGA voter is going to vote for them.
If they turn out, but they likely are not going to turn out. GOPe candidates have no credibility with that 2 million new/returning voters that Turned out for Trump that had not in previous elections
May as well stay home then...
/s
Really???? A fifteen point swing in less than a week???
I never believed Trump was for Strange other than as a deal for Senate votes. If he was, he had a very strange way of showing it.
I’m for the MAGA agenda, but Trump stands for it to me as the flag stands for the US. If I have to compromise on the agenda with Trump I will, because I trust him to have the long game in view. We never expect to get everything. With Trump we’re finally getting SOMETHING. That’s so much better than what was going to happen to us, I’ll stick with Trump and trust him to get for us the best deal he can.
Trump lost Virginia pretty badly—by nearly 5 points. I’m not sure a rally for a establishment candidate like Gillespie would work (i.e. bring out enough MAGA voters to win).
If Gillespie wins it will be because he turns out enough country club and RINO voters in NOVA who refused to vote for Trump. And there were lots of those in Virginia in 2016. NOVA is one of the most affluent areas in USA.
A look at suburban northeastern and mid-Atlantic counties in 2016 shows Romney did better in most of them in 2004 than Trump did in 2016. Trump rode to victory on the backs of rural and white working class voters, not the upper crust suburban vote.
I hope Gillespie wins just so Dem morale continues to bump along the bottom.
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