Posted on 10/28/2017 5:44:32 PM PDT by Pinkbell
No internals (that I can see) regarding split of those surveyed. Virginia electorate was 36% (D) and 36% (R) in 2016. Hampton University poll (historically, most accurate in the state) had Gillespie up by 7 last week. Not sure the margin is that wide today, but Ed is not trailing by the figure listed in this latest poll. Guessing this one over-sampled Dims (again); Hampton poll had it 42 (D) and 41 (R) and still gave Gillespie a clear lead.
Once again thanks to the GOPe we have a choice of amnesty or amnesty.
At the link there is a box with the full report (it’s multiple pages - has the full breakdown there).
I am sure you will show up to vote for him, but I have ZERO confidence that the 2 Million new and disenfranchised voters Trump brought to the voting box last November are going to show up for a GOPe candidate.. even if Trump campaigns for them.
A GOPe candidate has ZERO credibility with those 2 Million or so voters, they spent the last 30-40 years ignoring, or worse yet, advocating against the stand most of the MAGA voters voted on! If they were serious about these issues they would have done something about them for last 4 decades.. they didn’t.
GIllespie will get the GOP vote that always shows up, reliable republican and conservative voters... but that in and over itself isn’t enough to win... Even with the depressed turn out of an off year election, and NOVA turnout almost certainly being down. Trump can fly in and I am sure he will get great attended rallies, but I don’t believe for one minute those all important voters that voted for him, because of his MAGA agenda are going to show up for an GOPe guy, no matter what Trump says.
This is what folks just don’t get, Trump didn’t get elected because he’s Trump... his support is NOT a cult of personality, like Obama’s was... His support are for the policies he’s advocating and a GOPe candidate has ZERO credibility on those policies and therefor, believe that those new and disgruntled voters are going to show up en masse for a GOPe guy, is far far less likely, no matter what Trump says.
They know a Governorship doesn’t tilt the balance of power in the house or the Senate, so it won’t affect the MAGA agenda in washington one way or another.... and without MAGA being front and center, CREDIBLY in the race, I just don’t think Gillespie will get over the hump. He certainly isn’t going to lose by 7 points... that’s just flat out nonsense, but if all Gillespie gets are the regular GOP voters, I just don’t see how he gets over the hump, and the D holds by 1-3 points.
I will be happy to eat crow on this, but unless the D vote is FAR FAR FAR more depressed than I think it will be, I just have a very very hard time seeing a GOPe candidate getting those new MAGA voters to show up.
I hope I eat crow, I honestly do... but unless something breaks that race open from the generic ballot D vs R, which is what it is with these 2 candidates...I don’t see it flipping. Had a MAGA candidate been on the ballot, I would very comfortably predict the GOP taking the VA governorship... but that’s not what this race is. Its, essentially a Generic R vs Generic D.... R’s will be more motivated to show up since they are out of power and general Turnout will be low, because its an off year election... But I have a very hard time thinking Turnout will be THAT low, that just regular old GOP voters even with better turnout will overcome... They need those MAGA voters, and I just don’t see them en masse showing up for an Generic D vs R contest, especially one that holds no impact in the house or senate.
Time will tell
Well you may feel that way, but that’s not how the real world works. If the voters, particularly voters that have been disenfranchised for years, which are most of the new MAGA voters that gave Trump his win, view this as just lesser of two evils,... or a standard Generic D vs Generic R... I don’t see you getting the turnout...
I will be happy to eat crow if I am wrong. However, I just do not see it.
Redistricting may motivate you, and some of the R base, but its not likely to even be on the radar of those new voters Trump brought to the polls.
Again, I will be happy to eat crow if I am wrong, but I just don’t see, in a generic R vs generic D race, even being off year and lower turnout, I just don’t see the R pulling it off without those new voters Trump brought out to vote for him...
If a MAGA candidate was running I would predict a very easy win for them, because I think that it would be, but a GOPe guy vs a generic D.... just don’t see him motivating the turnout needed.
Time will tell, and I will happily eat crow... But I see this as the D by 1-3
There is no way Gillespie will lose by 7, that’s just laughable on its face... Akin to the Hillary will win GA, or take PA by 10 etc...
I think this race will be close, I thing best case for the D is they win it by about 3.... My gut on this one, is the D’s hold by 1-3. Love to say otherwise and I do believe that has the R’s run a MAGA candidate they would comfortably win this one... But with a GOPe vs a Generic D, in VA... I see it remaining in D hands, but no way D’s win by 7, that’s just someone smoking the whacky tobackey to be making that claim.
Thanks for such a thoughtful analysis. You make excellent points. I do think Trump could have made a difference with enough visibility and enthusiasm and explanation on the importance of a governor to decisions about voter registration/validation, etc. But Trump hasn’t done that, and a simple rally now probably wouldn’t be accepted as Trump saying that this is a MUST-HAVE.
By the way, love your name. John Jay is one of my favorite characters and I have all the books of his papers.
well, I would have said hope springs eternal, but thanks for the reality check. I needed it! LOL :^)
Understand, I hope the R wins, I truly do, and in a close race, which I do believe this will be, He certainly COULD win.. I just don’t think the stars are likely to align for it.
If D turnout is more depressed that I think it is, or the general anger at McCaulliffe is higher than I perceive, and those more rural voters do show up in large numbers, Gillespie could win... I certainly don’t want to depress anyone from turning out, Anytime a race is inside a few points, which I truly believe this one is... either person CAN win.
I just feel Gillespie pulling that off is the lesser of the likely outcomes, if this was a MAGA v Generic D, I would say the R handily wins. If Gillespie pulls it out, I believe it will have far more to do with VA internal political motivations, then broad national trends.
The broad national trends definitely set the stage for the Republican, even a generic one, to perform well, but will it be enough? Lets not forget there is a libertarian on the ballot as well, and in the last election the lib candidate bled 6.5% of the vote, which traditionally one would assume those voters would tend R over D it the lib was not in the race. McCaulliffe only won by about 56k votes, or a little over 1.5% of the vote.
This is a race the Republican CAN win, its not an impossible outcome, I don’t mean to depress or unmotivate anyone.. I just think its the LESS likely outcome. Please, I am very happy to be proven wrong. I think a MAGA candidate would blunt the lib pull significantly, and also motivate those new Trump voters to the polls... just not convinced a GOPe will be able to do it.. but this is certainly a competitive race where the R could win.
If the R’s do lose, I wlll personally view this as an a race they SHOULD have easily won, because I believe without question had they run a MAGA candidate the R wins it easily by 3+
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