Posted on 09/28/2017 2:18:45 PM PDT by huldah1776
And just what interests do we have in Syria?
“And just what interests do we have in Syria?”
Perhaps their leader isn’t very nice to terrorists who want to behead him and millions like him?
...that’s the best that I can come up with. But I’ll keep working in it.
“BTW, any government in Syria will be hostile to Israel”
Not the Kurds. They are the great exception in the Region.
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The Kurds are a small minority in Syria. I’m all in favor of them having their own country, but they have neither the capability of desire to rule over Arab populations. Try again. Any government that represents Syria will be hostile to Israel. No government is going to willingly accept another country holding their territory, however justified by history and strategic necessity. As I said, Israel can defend itself against Syria, without our overthrowing every government that doesn’t like them.
“Considering the BLOODTHIRSTINESS of ISIS, I’d say he... had EVERY RIGHT to treat his opponents as he did.”
By that logic, so do we, and so does everyone else in the world. So legalize political parties dropping nerve agent into city neighborhoods where their political opponents live (which Assad did), and structuring society to oppress other religions and races (the Ba’ath Party is based on race - the Nazi model). Individuals have no rights before the Government, and the Government has no restriction whatsoever on its treatment of its subjects (arrest, torture murder, mass murder, genocide - all without trial or legal process).
But that logic doesn’t really hold, because they established their system and it’s repressive tactics many decades before ISIS - when the Wahabbis were still basically a poor tiny cult, isolated in a poor, undeveloped Saudi Arabia.
The Ba’ath originated in 1920’s Paris, part of the reform movement within European Socialist/Communist Parties to emphasize a new more Nationalist narrative based on race, to justify collectivism/centralization. Michel Aflaq, the founder, broke with the Syrian–Lebanese Communist Party in 1930’s, and aligned with Italian Communist “reformers” led by Mussolini, and the German National Socialists (Nazis) who promoted socialism based on race rather than class (more emotive rather than intellectual). They were avid Nazi supporters throughout WWII. Saddam’s uncle, who raised the orphaned Saddam, was imprisoned by the British for his role in an attempted coup by the Iraqi Ba’ath, to flip Iraq to the Nazi side during the war.
When they talk about the “Arab Nationalist” movement, it is really about (better translated as) a nation based on the Arab Race - straight up National Socialism. Assad is the leader of the last Nazi government on Earth.
Your statements implied isolationism to me. When you say “Why do we have “interests” in Syria at all?” it seems to me that you challenge the idea of our being involved there at all.
“the best course of action is help Assad restore order.”
The downside of that is an Anti-American, Anti-Israeli, Nazi-based, State supporter of terrorism, armed with weapons of mas destruction (who uses them more than any other nation on Earth) in close alliance with Iran and Russia. ...And we are killing ISIS just fine without accepting all that atrocious cost in perpetuity.
“You OTOH, never answered my question about how you see our involvement bringing this to a good conslusion. What is your end game? What is the victory you envision?”
I am assuming that you did not see my post #18 before you posted this.
“BTW, you are lying when you call me an isolationist. I already said we should confront Iran directly”
That is an opinion, not a lie. That was my impression, but it may of course be mistaken. I did not mean to mis-characterize your position. Regime change in Iran would be a huge improvement in many respects (notably for Iranians).
“they (the Syrian Kurds) have neither the capability of desire to rule over Arab populations.”
Not true. They have proven their capability to administer Arab populations in Manbij, Hasakah, and elsewhere. Arguably they are the only group that has shown the capability to equitably and efficiently administer Arab areas so far, as measured by Internally Displaced Persons voluntarily returning to the areas in Kurdish/SDF control, and in their excellent ability to maintain internal security against jihadis.
In terms of desire, it is their explicit doctrine that their political view (called Democratic Confederalism, or Apoism) should extend throughout Syria, although they would be willing to negotiate with Damascus for autonomy in their areas (which already include several majority Arab area). They do represent a well defined alternative political ideology, which would not be (is not) hostile to Israel, the USA, other ethnic groups or religions - in both theory and practice.
I guess by your logic we could say that our Founding Fathers were a bunch of TERRORISTS, at least back then...so maybe BLM has a point?
So let’s dispense with that. I know a number of Syrian Christians, and TO A PERSON, they support Assad, since he kept them safe...and if he’s a bit tough on Jihadists, it’s difficult for me to blame them...they deserve EVERYTHING they get, and I don’t really care about the gassing, since I know the media will LIE THROUGH THE TEETH to blame Assad...regardless of whether he had anything to do with it.
I’m not saying we retreat but I am saying that if we expect countries like Russia and China to respect our alliances then we have to respect theirs.
Right now we don’t have a moral leg to stand on if Russia were to start bombing Poland or some other country we’re allied with.
“if we expect countries like Russia and China to respect our alliances then we have to respect theirs.”
That fundamentally misunderstands the nature of power politics - it is not about respect, it is a forceful competition. The objective is to strengthen your position, and weaken your opponents. To do this, routine use is made of such tactics as mass misinformation campaigns and assassination - and in this case open warfare creating the largest refugee crisis since WWII and leveling cities.
Let’s face it, this is a dire military situation, not an embassy cocktail party.
If Russia could just bomb their way into Poland, they would. They often threaten to do so in Polish language media, but Lithuania and the Baltics.
They have a longstanding policy of expanding their influence through intimidation and military force (The Ukraine, Crimea, for current example). They are stopped by the credible threat of an unacceptable cost. The diplomatic talk is to try to gain some advantage in the power struggle - it is driven by the power dynamics, not the other way around.
Most countries, including Russia, are effectively run by mafias out for their personal profit. Putin is personally worth tens of billions of dollars, all gained through corruption and plunder. That is their main interest. Moral posturing is for public consumption, or to try to persuade opponents to change behavior.
Russia, more than almost any other country, pours an exceptional amount of resources into misinformation campaigns, a unique capability built over decades in the KGB. Lying is seen as a fundamental tool in gaining advantage.
“by your logic we could say that our Founding Fathers were a bunch of TERRORISTS, at least back then...so maybe BLM has a point?”
I just don’t see any basis for that accusation.
You do make a valid point that Syrian Christians supported Assad. In my opinion, that was based on the alternatives they had - basically ISIS type Sunnis or Hizbollah type Shi’ites. Both of those options are monstrous. Christians in country however have flocked to the SDF as an alternative.
Although Assad is an oppressive dictator, those who stayed out of politics and kept their comments to themselves, did enjoy peace and security for decades in Syria. Damascus was a a charming place, with great food and cafes. He specifically cultivated Christians as part of his political base against the Sunni majority, as his ruling Alawite sect was so small a percentage of the population.
“I know the media will LIE THROUGH THE TEETH to blame Assad...regardless of whether he had anything to do with it.”
There is a great deal of that going on as well. It is part of war.
“they deserve EVERYTHING they get, and I don’t really care about the gassing”
That is where I believe, your emotions get the better of your argument. Unconstrained ends justifies the means opens the door to the worst of atrocities. Test that statement against the Nazi Holocaust, for example.
It is true that ISIS, and to a large degree muslims worldwide, have lost the sympathy of the public, after years of atrocities committed by terrorists and ISIS. They adopted a deliberate strategy of horrific atrocities as a force multiplier, and it has blown back at them big time. US policy is now “Annihilation” against ISIS, and nobody much cares (me either).
But a common tactic used by dictators is to justify their abuses, by putting themselves in opposition to a worse group (e.g. communists recently, terrorists today). By himself, Assad and his Ba’ath Party are bad actors, and fundamentally anti-American. That is a reality that we should not lose sight of, even if they are temporarily eclipsed in evil by ISIS.
Then when an American aircraft gets shot down in Syria because the Qataris want a gas pipeline you’ll see a flag draped coffin and say to yourself, “Totally worth it.”
Right?
It is a sad cost of the real world that we live in.
If we turn our back and ignore the spread of evil Anti-American thugs, so they can take over the world, but come for us later, you are all right with that.
Right?
This is about Qatar building a gas pipeline so they can make money.
There is nothing noble being gained here by causing the deaths and displacement of millions of people because McCain and Obama have their love on for Qatar.
“Christians in country however have flocked to the SDF as an alternative.”
Anything to back that up, as it would run TOTALLY AGAINST Obama, Hillary, and the Deep State efforts to clear out the remaining Christians from the Middle East (think Muslim Brotherhood support).
...or is it simply more Deep State propaganda?
As far as I know, every Christian still left in Syria is either in Assad-controlled Syria, or as been killed by SDF/ISIS.
“This is about Qatar building a gas pipeline so they can make money.”
That is a significant concern for Qatar, and they may be able to buy off some US and other country’s politicians for that purpose, but it is only one factor among many. Nothing is simple in the Middle East.
Qatar is the main funder of the Muslim Brotherhood, which puts most of its resources into ideological/religious and political efforts into areas outside of Qatar’s natural gas interests (notably Egypt, although you could argue that a lot of gas ships through the Suez Canal). Qatar also operates Al Jezeera news, the main media outlet that promotes Wahabbi/jihadi ideology on Earth. So it seems likely that the Qatari ruling family is also motivated by religion, or just extending their political influence, by its funding of jihadis as a surrogate Army, mercenaries, or a Foreign Legion (they have a tiny population of their own to project power).
They definitely do have a big financial interest in a pipeline to the huge European market, but they have other interests as well. The Qatari Royal Family has long chafed under the domination of the Saudi Royal Family, who always expect the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to do whatever it says. The Qataris want more autonomy in their foreign policy, and buck the Saudis quite a bit, notably in their close relations with Iran, which is a pariah to the Saudis. Having other governments in the region who support Qatar over the Saudis, would greatly strengthen their hand against the Saudis within the GCC (especially the big Sunni military powers - Turkey an Egypt).
And that is just some of Qatar’s complex interests. Many countries are interested in Syria, and each has multiple interests. Many conflicts are being fought out there - Sunni/Shia, Iran/Turkey, Iran/Israel, Iran/Saudi, Ba’ath Party/Democracy, Ba’ath Party/Islamist Jihadis, US/Russia, US/Iran, US/Islamist Jihadis, Turkey/Kurds, Turkey/Anyone who is not an Islamist Jihadi, Turkey/Ba’ath Party, Russia/Turkey, and so on. Those are some of the external conflicts playing out there, but there are many internal religious, ethnic, ideological, and tribal conflicts underway as well.
That is just business as usual in the Middle East - many conflicting agendas, further complicated by shifting alliances (friends on one thing, enemies on another, shifting with the circumstances). What is not business as usual, is the scale of the change going on there. This is likely going to settle out with significant long term re-alignments. It is a critical time to be involved and shape the circumstances we will have to deal with for a long time after things settle out.
Letting the worst actors walk away with huge gains at this critical juncture would be irresponsible, and we would likely pay a much larger price in blood in the future if we did so.
“Anything to back that up?” (Christians supporting SDF)
The whole structure and new name (SDF) was to open up the formerly Kurdish only fighting forces (YPG/YPJ) into a broader mutli-ethnic, multi-confessional coalition, that would be more politically representative, and more politically acceptable (Mainly to Turkey which has huge security conerns with Kurdish power, but also to the Syrian Regime/Int’l community for post conflict settlement talks).
You can Google “SDF Christian” or look at the wikipedia entry for the SDF. Although wikipedia downplays the Christian aspect of the coalition, they do note that Syriac Military Council was an early, non-Kurdish member of the SDF.
The Syriac Military Council is the main Christian militia in Syria. They represent/are composed of the Assyrian and Chaldean Christian communities. Although they joined the SDF in 2015 as soon as it was announced, they were military allies with the Kurdish YPG/YPJ since 2013.
Largely Christian areas in Hasakah have been liberated from ISIS by the Kurds (which is when the Syriac Military Council joined them), and have been administered by the Kurds/SDF since.
I guess it is probably more accurate to say that Christians will flock to EITHER the Regime or the SDF, because those are the only groups who provide them physical security from the many monsters on the loose in Syria - most notably the Sunni extremists like ISIS, al Queda and the many supposed “moderate rebel” groups. A lot of Orthodox Christians live in Regime strongholds, and strongly support the Regime, and join the Regime’s military.
So I guess that it depends on which part of the country the Christians are living, as Regime and SDF areas do not overlap. The SDF has been shown in practice to be an acceptable alternative for Syrian Christians (who voluntarily stay, return, and join), but we have not really had a lot of opportunity for Christians to freely choose between the Regime or SDF, without the pressures of imminent life-threatening enemies nearby.
However one thing that is dramatically unreasonable to conclude about Christians in Syria, is that they are “either in Assad-controlled Syria, or (have) been killed by SDF/ISIS.”
The SDF, and their Kurdish predecessors are the ones who have defeated ISIS. Christians and Kurds in the NorthEast of the country have been allies in defeating ISIS.
The Kurds/SDF have not attacked Christians. They have liberated Christian areas from ISIS, provided refugee assistance to Christians, and have protected Christians and their rights in the areas they administer, fought side-by-side with Christians against ISIS, and included Christians
in the administration.
Just in the last week, the SDF held the first local elections in the liberated areas, and Christian voters and candidates participated freely and were represented in the results.
Catholics under SDF administration (today on twitter - they use the Kurdish name for Hasakah):
https://twitter.com/AzadiRojava/status/913813126797234176
It’s an opinion that does not have the whole picture...so I disagree.
>(Note: these are NOT the so-called “moderate rebels” like the Free Syrian Army (FSA) who were heavily composed of islamists - they were/are ineffective/counterproductive).
Probably because they wanted to fight the Alawite dominated Ba’atist government, not other Sunnis.
>(the Arab Race, in this case - usually deceptively translated as Arab Nationalism)
one could argue that they’re basically one and the same.
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