Here's the Euro model Sept 7: 
Posted on 09/18/2017 8:22:21 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
Here's the Euro model Sept 7:
Exactly. All they can do is observe (which is not scientific modelling) and say "today it looks like its heading this way or that way".
In the case of Irma the "predictions" were wrong, causing lots of people to evacuate TO the areas hit the hardest when it was too late to re-evacuate back to where they started.
That's crazy to call the predictions "accurate".
Just 5 days out, the error zone was over 1,000 miles wide. They might as well have claimed it would hit North America.
Irma did wind up within the CI of the early models that were statistically the same. That’s the problem with the spaghetti maps—people don’t understand what they are looking at.
**************
Irma was huge. I think most people understood that but the CI concept is beyond the understanding of most of us who are more inclined to look at measures of central tendency. I also think that the authorities and news media tended to focus on predicted tracks (and intensity) of the hurricane. Residents of Florida were desperately wanting to know where to go to get away from the approaching storm.
Confidence intervals don’t give the average person much confidence about what to do. The tracks may be misleading to some extent, but most people probably rely on them to make decisions. This is probably a good topic for some further research to guide people in the future.
Those models shifted the last hurricane away from hitting Miami and caused the Houston mayor to order massive evacuations days before landfall of its hurricane.
Right?
>>Confidence intervals don’t give the average person much confidence about what to do. The tracks may be misleading to some extent, but most people probably rely on them to make decisions. This is probably a good topic for some further research to guide people in the future.
You are right. Remember that your post was implying that the early spaghetti models were mostly wrong. I was explaining why they were mostly right, within a reasonable CI, and the size of the storm made the inaccuracies in central tendency moot. I’m in Jacksonville. It was going to get hit here with any reasonable model, even the ones that showed a west coast track. I knew people who were “breathing easier” when it began to move towards the Tampa-Tallahassee track. That’s what those lines do for the dumb masses.
Comparing hokey climate change models to valid hurricane models is absurd.
Hindsight is 20/20.
Even after the USA and European models for the path of the eye of Hurricane Irma basically converged, the path essentially going straight up the middle of the Florida peninsula from the tip, Irma failed to follow the computer model and favored western Florida, starting with the Keys. Corrections welcome.
In fact, based on earlier computer predictions of Irma’s path, I understand that some people who live on Florida’s east coast sought safety with family and friends living on the west cost.
So it can be argued that basing evacuation plans on rough computer models can possibly kill even more people.
That’s what those lines do for the dumb masses.
*****************
Again, it was a gigantic storm with massive destructive power. Its sheer size and “threat profile” made most people assess their risk exposure but most of them simply do not think in statistical terms. Its not that they are “dumb”. We’re all dumb about lots of things. The media was throwing the speghetti tracks and warnings at them non-stop so naturally they focused on what they were seeing rather than analyzing things such as the CI. I mean, what percentage of people have any idea what it is?
That’s Hedley!
Climate models have an even better track record than the weather models
Do all these writers hang out near 5th and Wall in downtown LA every night??
THERE IS NO MODEL even Remotely accurate.
>>I mean, what percentage of people have any idea what it is?
Almost none. That is why it is the JOB of the “experts” to properly explain these models instead of just showing them and reminding viewer to stay tuned to find out how your gonna die. I explained them constantly in person and on FB to try and raise the knowledge level. Now that the apocalyptic media is pimpin’ Maria, we have to do it all over again. One of the big fallacies is the one that you used: “the original Irma track was way far east too” with the implication of “go buy water and gas!”
Harvey was predicted to go to Mexico just like Katia did later. That turn to the north was not predicted
I never said that the track was way far east. If you're going to quote me, please be accurate. Nor did I ever suggest or imply that anyone run out and buy anything. Geeze. You seem to interested in precision, except when it comes to referencing what others say.
>>I never said that the track was way far east. If you’re going to quote me, please be accurate. Nor did I ever suggest or imply that anyone run out and buy anything. Geeze. You seem to interested in precision, except when it comes to referencing what others say.
I wasn’t quoting you, but quotes are all we have to set text apart. I would have preferred italics, but the nature of FR makes that more trouble than its worth.
But to be specific, I am interested in precision in data and statistics. Getting a quote right on an internet opinion board is hardly a big deal.
Okay.... they really only gave a general idea where Irma was going. It went from Tallahassee, to Miami, to Savannah, and all the way back over to Tampa....
So... not too accurate.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.