Posted on 09/18/2017 8:22:21 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
Irma’s predicted track changed significantly every day.
People trying to evacuate didn’t know which way to go.
In the end, she went east of Tampa instead of west, as forecast.
Did the author forget that Irma's path shifted west approximately the width of Florida?
Then the very last minute they ordered evacuations for Marco, Naples, Ft. Meyers, Tampa etc. By that time the roads were bumper to bumper and all hotels were booked up (including Alabama and Georgia) or in the evacuation zones. I felt so sorry for those people.
Right, climate models have a better track record. So they oredicted stabke temps iver the past xecade? I think not.
The models for Irma showed nearly all the “spaghetti” tracks heading up the middle of Florida or the U.S. east coast, not the west coast of Florida. As I recall, there were only one or two “outlier” tracks that predicted anything close to the actual path of the hurricane while it was out in the Atlantic.
Models saved zero life.
Cars, fossil fuel, concrete, buildings, wealth, people (all things Goebels warmers hate) saved life, just look at the countless hurricane deaths in the neighbouring countries who don’t have much of them.
Pls see comment #25.
the models that attempted to predict Irma’s path WERE NOT CLIMATE MODELS.
God can control climate ,,, man can hardly predict it accurately in a 10 day forecast .
>>The models for Irma showed nearly all the “spaghetti” tracks heading up the middle of Florida or the U.S. east coast, not the west coast of Florida. As I recall, there were only one or two “outlier” tracks that predicted anything close to the actual path of the hurricane while it was out in the Atlantic.
That’s true, but Irma was also 400 miles wide and those early spaghetti tracks were lines that did not show the CI of each model. Irma did wind up within the CI of the early models that were statistically the same. That’s the problem with the spaghetti maps—people don’t understand what they are looking at.
More BS. Never stops.
Climate models perform even better than weather models, so no need pouring in hundred of millions per year financing them.
> Climate models have an even better track record than the weather models
Weather models I look at are pretty accurate (hourly, 1 day, even 5 day). Can the author name anything the climate models have got right in 30 years?
* accelerated sea level rise (no)
* ice-free arctic (no)
* hurricanes over the last 12 years (no). tornados, wildfires, ... (no)
* global temperatures over the last 15+ years (no)
* water vapor at different levels of atmosphere (no)
* temperature rise at tropics vs non-tropics (no)
* sea surface temps (no). deep sea temps (no)
They’ll say they were right about most of these “in direction”. But we aren’t being warned/threatened about “direction”. We are being warned about “magnitude”. And in some important cases, they got the direction wrong.
When properly tuned, they are okay at “predicting” what ALREADY happened and blaming CO2. But, I’m not aware of any significant prediction (we’re supposed to say projection since around 2009) they’ve been right about after they told us. They can hype insignificant predictions better than P.T. Barnum and keep telling us other projections will come to be into the future - but that does not mean they have a good track record.
If you go by death count alone, hurricanes have been getting weaker here in the Atlantic.
Like I said the forecasts sucked! How do I know? I flew down to Ft. Lauderdale the Thursday before Irma struck. I had reservations in Juno Beach, Jacksonville and Tallahassee. Juno Beach canceled on me before I canceled on them. I canceled downtown Jacksonville after a miracle occurred. The forecasts Thursday morning were dire. A surge of six feet was forecasted and waves up to 34 feet were to hit Ft. Lauderdale. Of course nothing like that materialized, thankfully.
Back to logistics/miracle. Everything was booked up (incl. up to Birmingham, Al and all of Georgia south of Atlanta). My niece opened her computer, went to hotel.com. There was a sea of red. Then out of nowhere a green dot appeared. It was a hotel/condo outfit in Sandestin. We booked it for Saturday through Wednesday.
And what happened? Jacksonville suffered flooding and Tallahassee was a direct hit after hitting the Keys, Marco, Naples then going in land and up to Tallahassee. My niece's neighbors took their elderly parents (in the 90's) to Orlando. Orlando was hit with Cat 3 winds. Irma was a real _itch. In Sandestin we got one band, a rainbow and a neat picture of Irma in the distance.
True, they were not climate models but there is a generalized perception that models are more predictive than they really are. That was my point.
Not saying models are useless. They do help us to better understand the forces and processes at play but all models have limitations with respect to their predictive value.
Wow. This is like an editorial written by someone who has no idea what the facts are.
Harvey was barely predicted, strengthened by surprise at the last minute, and still wasn’t a big deal until another surprise got it stuck over texas for several days while it kept raining and raining.
Irma was predicted to destroy Florida, but in the end, an unpredictable turn caused it to mostly die over cuba, making it a somewhat intense cat 3 which came in on the wrong side of florida to cause the havoc predicted only days earlier.
It is probable that our ability to predict is saving lives(not property), because of evacuation times. Although we evacuated the wrong places in florida for Irma.
But yes, a capability to predict 2 days out is actually useful to get people out of the way of a really big storm.
being 75% accurate with a 2-day prediction is hardly useful for “climate change”, which otherwise has a lousy record.
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