Posted on 04/29/2017 7:31:48 AM PDT by Texas Fossil
Turkey's airstrikes on Kurdish regions in Syria and Iraq recently raised many an eyebrow around the globe. They left world leaders wondering if there will be more strikes and, if so, how the escalation will unfold. This article is a sequel to Amberin Zaman’s piece on April 25 that reflected the viewpoints of the United States, the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and Baghdad. This will focus on the perspectives of Ankara and Moscow, Ankara's strategic calculations behind the attacks and Moscow’s position on the events.
Early April 25, the Turkish air force carried out simultaneous air attacks on Iraq’s Sinjar region and on Mount Qarachok near the northern Syrian town of al-Malikiyah. Thirty F-16 aircraft taking off from Malatya air base used 2,000-pound bombs equipped with GBU 10 Paveway II laser guidance to attack Yazidi Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) forces at Sinjar and strike the command-control facilities, radio link station and media center in northern Syria belonging to the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). The YPG is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Turkey considers a terrorist group.
Without doubt, the field situation in northern Syria has heated up. We have to note the serious clashes between the YPG and the Turkish army in the areas of Tal Rifaat, Tal Jibrin, Qari Baba, Derbisi and Maranez, and remember that Turkey has been pounding areas across the border constantly with 155 mm howitzers. On April 26, YPG militants fired anti-tank guided missiles four times and mortars several times at Turkish army border outposts at Hatay, Kilis and Mardin. Two Turkish soldiers were wounded, and two Turkish tanks and some other vehicles were damaged. These clashes are causing much concern, as they could grow into all-out battles.
The April 25 attack was Turkey's first simultaneous, coordinated, major air operation against PKK-linked targets in Iraq and Syria. While announcing the operation, Ankara officials did not feel the need to blame any attack from the other side as a pretext. The first statement by Chief of General Staff Hulusi Akar was clear: “Operations will continue as long as the threat prevails. We are assessing the situation and will decide accordingly.”
Ankara’s undeclared intention appears to be creating situations on the ground to probe the intentions and seriousness of the United States in cooperating with PKK-linked Kurdish armed groups in northern Syria and Iraq. Ankara wanted to test the waters with the United States in the lead-up to the much-awaited May 16 meeting scheduled between Presidents Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey will decide what it wants from that meeting based on the United States' reaction to Turkey's air attacks.
The official statement of the Turkish high command emphasized that the PKK-linked groups in Iraq and Syria have been smuggling into Turkey sophisticated weapons systems such as anti-tank guided missiles and shoulder-launched missiles, and significant amounts of military-grade explosives. Turkey has noted increasing use of these items in attacks inside its borders. The Turkish military is taking seriously PKK claims that its affiliated groups in northern Syria blew up the police building in Diyarbakir by digging a tunnel under it and planting explosives. Officials believe the groups smuggled in the 700 kilograms (1,543 pounds) of TNT-type explosives used in the April 11 attack.
Turkey's air attacks on April 25 were accompanied by a well-organized, intensive public relations effort designed for domestic public consumption. Turkish media was flooded with photos of Chief of General Staff Akar and air force commander Abidin Unal at the operations headquarters directing the attacks, and photographs taken by F-16s during the actual attack. The public was being told that the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) are recovering from the July 15 coup attempt and all is going well in the revamped Turkish security sector.
Will such operations continue? The answer will be determined by reactions of first the United States and then Russia.
I had earlier written that I wasn’t expecting a Turkish ground operation at Sinjar west of the Euphrates River, where Russia has air superiority, or east of the river, where the United States controls the air space. But I had noted that a Turkish ground operation with or without the participation of allied Kurdish peshmerga forces in the mountainous regions of Avasin-Basyan, Zap and Hakurk along the Turkey-Iraq border was possible because of the relatively low interest of the United States and Russia in those areas.
I also expect that if the United States and Russia declare a no-fly zone over northern Syria and Sinjar and enforce it with air patrols, Turkey will continue with its air attacks against critical facilities of PKK-linked groups in Syria and Iraq, after giving short notice to the United States and Russia.
In that case, it will be interesting to watch US planes taking off from Incirlik air base in Turkey in attempts to prevent Turkish airplanes from entering the no-fly zone. If the no-fly zone over Syria and Iraq is also applied to Turkish planes, can Turkey retaliate by closing its airspace to coalition planes? That is a critical question.
Russia’s reaction to the Turkish air attacks was interesting. Political science expert Kerim Has of Moscow State University told Al-Monitor Russia did not rush to express its reaction. “The first reason for the slow reaction was the Russian expectation of even more stress in US-Turkey relations. When you hear the statements from Ankara and Washington, Russia was vindicated. Deteriorating ties between the United States and Turkey because of the YPG issue, which could expedite Turkey's possible NATO exit, is a strategic gain for Moscow. A short-term gain may be apparent after Erdogan and Putin meet May 3, strengthening Russia’s hand in the Syria issue. The second reason for Russia’s slow reaction is this: Moscow wanted to augment the dependence of PYD/YPG on Russia.”
That explains why the first reaction from the Russian Foreign Ministry, two days after the Turkish attacks, was strongly worded, calling the actions "unacceptable."
Has says there are two critical points in the Russian official reaction: First is the criticism of Turkey for carrying out air attacks without the permission of the sovereign states of Iraq and Syria. The second point is that Russia considers PYD/YPG forces to be “truly fighting” terror organizations. In this case, Moscow’s vision of the PYD and the YPG overlaps with that of Washington. Russia’s first strong backing of PYD/YPG forces so openly in an official statement could well be a signal that the groups may count on more protection from Moscow. Has pointed to Russia's increased military presence in YPG-held Afrin, a common stand between the United States and Russia to thwart Turkey's desire to take Kurdish-controlled Manbij, and Turkey’s ending of its stymied Operation Euphrates Shield.
“Even if there are divergences in other issues, the United States and Russia are moving toward a much more concrete and serious convergence of interests. Russia may well give a green light to the no-fly-zone proposals over northern Syria that it had been rejecting,” he concluded.
Ankara is now awaiting Washington’s next move while Russia is preparing for the May 3 meeting between Putin and Erdogan, which will be followed by the Trump-Erdogan meeting May 16. The month of May promises to be an animated one in the Ankara-Washington-Moscow triangle.
What he did with the air strike is indefensible.
The Insults he hurled against the EU leaders will end any discussion of Turkey being an EU member.
And by stealing the Referendum and being given his "super powers" have changed Turkish government to the point it is very questionable it is compatible with NATO or the EU.
We have acted in a mild fashion to limit Erdogan's continued shelling of the Kurds in Syria. And the Kurds have taken out a number of tanks, personnel carriers and a Howitzer emplacement with TOWs.
After meeting with Putin and then with Trump, Erdogan will see exactly where he stands with both.
He will not admit it. But YPG and YPJ are NOT PKK. There has never been an offensive from Syria's Kurds across the border to Turkey. And Turkey has shelled villages in Syria for years on whatever whim he wants to use to justify them. It is clearly not acceptable.
Turkey/Syria Ping
Caliph Erdie thinks he can play NATO and Russia off against one another but he's in for a rude awakening. The Russians would be on Turkey like white on rice if it weren't in NATO and whatever the US thinks, everyone in Europe is fed up with Turkey to the point that they'd like to see them out of NATO. That's what the "EU Army" is all about, a backdoor way to shut the Turks out without having US approval for kicking them out of NATO.
As for "safe zones" and all the divide Syria up talk that originally was focused on pipeline routes, it's all faded far into the background. The Saudis want to deal with the Kurds even less than they want to make Assad an offer he'd accept. On offer, by the by, that would have been a Hell of a lot cheaper and easier than what the Saudis have spent on funding and equipping all the murderous animals trying to take Syria apart (not to mention what we've spent).
In 2013 the goal changed from a being a negotiated division of Syria into several small states to causing a complete collapse of all civil order in Syria leading to Libya style anarchy. Since Israel found a huge oil pool under the Golan Heights, they aim to have it and are already busy greasing palms in Congress and at any "think tank" that will take their money to convince the US to recognize the Golan Heights as part of Israel. So much money, in fact, that you have to wonder just what sort of "fee" they're skimming off the top of money we and the Saudis pour on those murderous animals we're backing in Syria.
All this for a land grab and/or pipeline? Hey, just a minor annexation, no big deal. Offshore oil and gas isn't enough, Israel should have the Golan, too, right?
The problem is, the US and Europe recognizing that sort of resource grab and border expansion would fire up any Muslim who isn't already ticked off at the US including the Saudis and other little Gulf kingdoms who are our "allies". Now, that, would hand Erdie the Caliphate he wants on a silver platter. It'd sure give NATO a reason to continue to exist, though. Yessiree, it would make protecting Europe from the Turks and Muzzies once more a really important issue to Europeans.
We do, indeed, live in interesting times. Times that rhyme with earlier periods in history.
As always, JMHo, and everyone has one.
It is as good an analysis as I’ve seen currently. The power structure in the Middle East has always been fluid.
Erdie as you called him, is a real pain in the rump.
I knew some about the oil find. And it has long been known about the pipeline.
The strategy of Turkey is use the pipeline to make EU dependent, and slowly force enough illegal into country where they can conquer Europe without firing a shot. SA financing.
SA has put so many bucks into this crap, they are putting heavy pressure on ErDOGan.
Reports: US troops deploy along Syria-Turkish border
U.S. armored vehicles are deploying in areas in northern Syria along the tense border with Turkey, a few days after a Turkish airstrike that killed 20 U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters, a Syrian war monitor and Kurdish activists said Friday.
Yes. The real deal.
And I am told the soldiers were not happy with being pulled of their positions near Raqqa. Things were going pretty well. Cooperation between our guys and the SDF is very good. Both sides respect each other and the team is successful.
If it isn’t broke don’t fix it.
(this is what Erdogan caused)
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