Caliph Erdie thinks he can play NATO and Russia off against one another but he's in for a rude awakening. The Russians would be on Turkey like white on rice if it weren't in NATO and whatever the US thinks, everyone in Europe is fed up with Turkey to the point that they'd like to see them out of NATO. That's what the "EU Army" is all about, a backdoor way to shut the Turks out without having US approval for kicking them out of NATO.
As for "safe zones" and all the divide Syria up talk that originally was focused on pipeline routes, it's all faded far into the background. The Saudis want to deal with the Kurds even less than they want to make Assad an offer he'd accept. On offer, by the by, that would have been a Hell of a lot cheaper and easier than what the Saudis have spent on funding and equipping all the murderous animals trying to take Syria apart (not to mention what we've spent).
In 2013 the goal changed from a being a negotiated division of Syria into several small states to causing a complete collapse of all civil order in Syria leading to Libya style anarchy. Since Israel found a huge oil pool under the Golan Heights, they aim to have it and are already busy greasing palms in Congress and at any "think tank" that will take their money to convince the US to recognize the Golan Heights as part of Israel. So much money, in fact, that you have to wonder just what sort of "fee" they're skimming off the top of money we and the Saudis pour on those murderous animals we're backing in Syria.
All this for a land grab and/or pipeline? Hey, just a minor annexation, no big deal. Offshore oil and gas isn't enough, Israel should have the Golan, too, right?
The problem is, the US and Europe recognizing that sort of resource grab and border expansion would fire up any Muslim who isn't already ticked off at the US including the Saudis and other little Gulf kingdoms who are our "allies". Now, that, would hand Erdie the Caliphate he wants on a silver platter. It'd sure give NATO a reason to continue to exist, though. Yessiree, it would make protecting Europe from the Turks and Muzzies once more a really important issue to Europeans.
We do, indeed, live in interesting times. Times that rhyme with earlier periods in history.
As always, JMHo, and everyone has one.
It is as good an analysis as I’ve seen currently. The power structure in the Middle East has always been fluid.
Erdie as you called him, is a real pain in the rump.
I knew some about the oil find. And it has long been known about the pipeline.
The strategy of Turkey is use the pipeline to make EU dependent, and slowly force enough illegal into country where they can conquer Europe without firing a shot. SA financing.
SA has put so many bucks into this crap, they are putting heavy pressure on ErDOGan.