Posted on 04/28/2017 7:03:22 AM PDT by davikkm
According to French physicist Serge Galam, a victory for populist anti-mass migration presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is entirely possible due to a phenomenon known as differentiated abstention. Professor Galam, who works as a research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), says the science proves the possibility of a Le Pen victory, SFR reports.
“Differentiated abstention” is the key, according to Galam, who defined the term as: “The gap between the vote intention declared in the polls and the actual vote.”
Galam says it is incredibly unlikely that those who voted for Le Pen in the first round of the French presidential elections last Sunday will vote for Macron, guaranteeing her a sizeable base. He also said it is unlikely all those who oppose Le Pen are guaranteed to support her opponent Emmanuel Macron who is unpopular with far left and conservative voters.
“With less than 50 per cent of voting intentions, Marine Le Pen can end up with more than 50 per cent of the votes cast,” Galam said.
Serge Galam has a history of accurate predictions over the last two years. In June of 2016, he correctly predicted the Leave campaign would win the Brexit vote. In November, he predicted Donald Trump would win the U.S. presidency, and recently predicted that popular French politician Alain Juppé would lose the Republican primary.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I hope so, that will end globalisation and bring back nationality.
Hard to see this happening given her disappointing showing in Round 1. However once Macron proves to be as ineffectual as Hollande I can see her winning the next time.
Politics aside do you really want a 39 year old as leader of your nation? The answer is no. Go LePen go
La Pen
La Wenner...
Go Marine! MFGA!
(see modified tagline)
Apropos.....................
Dang it!
I've been found out.
Since the late 80s-early 90s, I've lied in every poll I've participated in, or been called about.
100% of the time.
Good luck with future polls; good luck with fake news/poll results.
Now, I haven’t seen anybody’s punditry addressing the FEMALE aspect of the French Election, re Glass Ceiling and all like Hilliary, etc.
Given the feminists penchant for glorifying and aggrandizing female candidates as ‘Powerful Women’, this French election has them in total silence.
Why are they not out there screeching about misogyny and male privilege and good old by networks and how voting for this woman will end the patriarchy of French politics?................
Hypocrites.......................
Same thing happened here :)
The VERY first online poll I took in making my choice for president in the generals, the words were so distorting and evil when describing Trump, I felt like everyone was watching me click on this evil fascist monster Trump!!! :)
I clicked “not sure” :(
It was the last time, trust me. All Trump after that.
Humans make errors.
The “maths”? eyeroll
Wishful thinking. Not going to happen.
France is lost to the muzzies and the EU.
Thank God for hope.
“maths” is how the Brits refer to math/mathematics
In the UK and Australia the say “maths” rather than “math” as the short way of sayinng mathematics.
Breitbart must have a Brit writing headlines.
I realize that and I am sick it. Just like “went missing”, sounds odd.
The "maths" or "optics" is a question of geography.
It's all BS masquerading as political or economic sophistication.
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