Posted on 01/22/2017 12:54:37 PM PST by Innovative
Where will the stock market go in the Trump administration? During the Obama presidency, it has advanced nicely, even amid so-so growth. Andrew Houghton and Nicholas Atkeson of Delta Investment Management in San Francisco show us why a bullish view for the market has further to rise.
The presidential election cycle occurs every four years, no matter what is going on with the economic cycle and stock market. Barack Obama took office on Jan. 20, 2009. The country had been in recession 14 months, the housing market bubble had popped over a year earlier and the S&P 500 had lost roughly 46% of its value. Since 1900, the average recession had lasted 15 months.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
* The Fracking Revolution unleashed, and the cash from it staying here.
* The elimination of the financial drag on the economy of Obamacare ( some say 1% GDP )
* The paring back of regulations especially the EPA ( again another 1% GDP?)
* Tax reform that includes a flat 15 or 20% Corp Tax and 100% expensing for new plant and equipment will modernize manufacturing and more.
* The repatriation of Capital estimated to be as high was 2.5 Trillion
* The unleashing of a potential healthcare revolution by getting the FDA out of the way to allow the backlog of the 4000 drugs waiting to make them a reality. IMHO this could dwarf Clinton's tech boom.
Larry Kudlow has said he thinks 6% is not out of the question, I say why not 7 or 8% given that is what Ireland had with their 12.5% Corp Tax.
Clinton's avg GDP was 3.78% w/ a Dow Increase of 225% in his eight years.
Not investment advice, but IMHO it is not out of the question IMHO that the Trump Economy could absolutely gob-smack those Clinton numbers...
The stock market did not “advance” under Obama. It was artificially given growth results through continued quantitative easing.
Let’s hope the growth under president Trump is sufficient to blunt the cessation of the fed pumping, fo all our sake.
One thing Obama was expert in, was maximizing the pain felt should his wishes not be followed. So long putz!
Good! I’m hoping my two pension plans which have always done nicely if slowly will jump in the next 15 years.
Seniors has no place to go with yields in the basement. Utility Stocks, Stalwart Dividend payers ( PG, etc etc ), Corp Bonds etc became a riskier proposition chasing yields that were no longer available with Gov't paper and CD's. This IMHO help drive up demand and price of these securities.
I disagree.
Too much debt, and not enough earnings. When rates start moving up, the market will go down. And I think it will go down hard.
When will the pay of those who voted for Trump increase?
TRUMP = OPTIMISM = SKY'S THE LIMIT MARKET!
Defense spending? Where are we going to get the money for that?
The country is broke. Manufacturing will take years to come back. The jobs being announced are nice, but they are a pebble in the ocean. The only way manufacturing will work here is through efficient automation.
The service sector is pretty much saturated. There are only so many bartenders and waiters jobs out there.
The finance world is growing because they’ve been operating in a low interest environment.
I love that we are becoming energy independent. But the only way that works is if the price per barrel stays high.
Finally, the Fed needs to generate some inflation. That combined with the flood of cash tax cuts, and treasuries being redeemed in record amounts it is possible that we will over shoot on inflation and return to the high rates of the late seventies.
I like what I am hearing about Trumps plans. I think the market is too far ahead of itself. I think we will see a replay of the first two years of the Reagan years. If you remember...those were not fun.
I think we hit 20,000—but not for long.
Your analysis is good. But the 'pro-business' climate Trump establishes and the optimism resulting from that is a welcomed departure from Mr. "you didn't build that". Trump's impact on the market will be a positive catalyst and we'll start to see a bullish market IMO.
I realize the market is now global and this could prove to be a boat anchor. Perhaps the globalist market kingpins will attempt to sabotage Trump's otherwise positive impact on the market, who knows.
I pray that you are right. I want you to be right. I believe that the only person running for President last year who could pull it off is Trump.
We shall see.
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