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Professor Who Accurately Predicted Trump Victory Accuses Media of Poll Bias
Breitbart ^ | November 11, 2016 | John Hayward

Posted on 11/12/2016 4:59:10 AM PST by monkapotamus

Stony Brook University Professor of Political Science Helmut Norpoth returned to Breitbart News Daily on Friday morning, two weeks after standing by his prediction that most polls were wrong and Donald Trump was highly likely to win the presidential race. Professor Norpoth was feeling rather good about that prediction on Friday.

Norpoth also confirmed, in response to SiriusXM host Alex Marlow’s first question, that it is indeed awesome to have a name like “Helmut Norpoth” and to hear it repeated with such gratitude and appreciation...

“I think the polls just totally misjudged the potential and the kind of support that he engendered, and he just fell through the cracks of how they poll people – how they wait, whatever they get from the polls, to make a sort of forecast of the electorate, and it was just so way off,” he said. “Any time I looked at a poll, at some of the fine print about the breakdowns to see what they were weighting, I always saw a very heavy Democratic preponderance, which I thought was way off, even bigger than in 2012. So I had a feeling right away that that wouldn’t be true, that we wouldn’t get an electorate that was just like that, and so I always figured that Trump’s chances were much better than these polls indicated...”

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016issues; 2016polls; helmutnorpoth; norpoth; polls; primarymodel; stonybrook; trump; trump2016

1 posted on 11/12/2016 4:59:10 AM PST by monkapotamus
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To: monkapotamus

Dark helmut pulls it off


2 posted on 11/12/2016 5:00:05 AM PST by BRL
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Did Helmut really get it right?

Doesn’t he usually say who wins the popular vote like he did with Gore? =P


3 posted on 11/12/2016 5:05:55 AM PST by KavMan
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To: BRL
The polls were manipulated in an effort to suppress conservative turnout.

It didn't work!

4 posted on 11/12/2016 5:06:16 AM PST by catman67 (14 gauge?)
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To: catman67

There is not one of us who needed this story to tell us the media was/is biased and the recent election process was manipulated in favor of Hitlary Clinton. The “Deplorable” American people are a lot smarter than the media!


5 posted on 11/12/2016 5:13:58 AM PST by DaveA37
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To: monkapotamus

Gee, ya think? The media “polls” weren’t biased Professor Dumbass, they were propaganda intended to suppress the vote against the vile, evil, and corrupt Demonic Party and its head jackal.


6 posted on 11/12/2016 5:14:16 AM PST by Common Sense 101
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To: catman67

Not only didn’t it work on conservatives, it may very well have suppressed their own vote.


7 posted on 11/12/2016 5:22:15 AM PST by FrdmLvr ("A is A. A thing is what it is.")
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To: catman67
The polls were manipulated in an effort to suppress conservative turnout.

It didn't work!

I think the manipulated polls ended up suppressing the liberal turnout, and it did work!

8 posted on 11/12/2016 5:26:40 AM PST by Yo-Yo
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To: FrdmLvr

That is an angle that is getting very little play. Telling everyone that Hillary has it in the bag and Trump’s chances of winning are almost zero is going to cause a lazy millennials to be stay home with his bong instead of get up and go to the polls.


9 posted on 11/12/2016 5:28:35 AM PST by ez ("Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is..." - Milton)
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To: monkapotamus

Shocking.


10 posted on 11/12/2016 5:41:47 AM PST by seawolf101 (Member LES DEPLORABLES)
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To: monkapotamus

Not bias, just outrught lies.


11 posted on 11/12/2016 5:48:56 AM PST by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country.)
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To: monkapotamus

Bias? Or Pure unadulterated propaganda!


12 posted on 11/12/2016 5:58:42 AM PST by rawcatslyentist (And God said, Let the earth bring forth grass, the herb yielding seed,)
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To: monkapotamus

This was the first year in the past 40+ years that I didn’t get at least a dozen phone calls from pollsters. I got zero calls this year. Not even calls about local issues.


13 posted on 11/12/2016 5:58:49 AM PST by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter)
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To: monkapotamus

Oh, it’s worse: the MSM essentially became state-run media.


14 posted on 11/12/2016 6:29:16 AM PST by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: monkapotamus

What was the final D+ of the electorate? Because that was the entire debate. They were using D+6-8 on average. Even more in the weeks leading up.


15 posted on 11/12/2016 6:35:05 AM PST by nhwingut (Trump-Pence 2016 - Blow Up The GOPe)
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To: ez

LOL! Especially when they weren’t all that excited about her in the first place. Had they known how she was really polling, they may have gone to the polls just to beat Trump. They were just happy not to have to vote for her, after what she did to Bernie. Let others do the dirty work. LOL!


16 posted on 11/12/2016 6:43:58 AM PST by FrdmLvr ("A is A. A thing is what it is.")
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To: nhwingut

CNN reports the 2016 popular vote at:
Trump 60,265,858 47.3%
Clinton 60,839,922 47.8%

Thus a D+ of 0.5%

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/president
(values published as of 09:48ET 11/12/2016


17 posted on 11/12/2016 6:45:54 AM PST by garyb
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To: Kirkwood
I got some calls, but most election years I got a dozen calls a day in the week before the election. This year it may have been one or two. The NRA was the most persistent.
18 posted on 11/12/2016 7:33:50 AM PST by KarlInOhio (" T'was the witch of November come stealin' " And who could the stealing Witch of November be? Hmm?)
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