Posted on 11/07/2016 7:24:01 AM PST by COUNTrecount
Silver’s analysis shows Trump has gained 6 points over Romney in Ohio and Iowa, and has closed the gap with Hillary Clinton down to almost error-margin levels in crucial Michigan and Pennsylvania.
That midwestern success is what gives Trump a one-third chance of winning the election, said Silver. “Clinton underperforming Obama’s 2012 forecast by *4 points* in the Midwest. That’s a major liability,” he tweeted.
On Sunday night, according to RealClearPolitics’s average of polls, Clinton was ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania by just 2.4 points (46 percent to 43.6 percent), and ahead in Michigan by 4.7 points (44.7 percent to 40 percent). A win in either state could be enough for Trump to win the election.
GOP leaders in Michigan and Pennsylvania have plenty of reasons for optimism, even as Trump is still lagging in the polls.
“I think what’s happening is that you’re seeing demographic shifts that cross state lines,” said Saul Anuzis, a former chairman of the Michigan GOP. This shift reaches across Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,” he told Breitbart News.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I can tell you without question Hillary will be down far more than 2.5% from Obama 12 numbers in PA...
I have said from day one, The Rust Belt firewall is going to absolutely collapse this election... Hillary stands no chance..
Even if Hispanics should flood a western state and take it, Trump will take these states big... and as I have said before, this is bigger than Trump and Hillary.. Trump is the catalyst, but if R’s don’t EF it UP... this is the start of a long overdue realignment of working class whites in the Rust Bet/Upper Mid West, that in a few short cycles could be making these states as reliably red as the south. This reality is being missed because of all the surface frothing regarding Hillary and Trump, but the reality is this part of the country is VERY VERY long overdue for a realignment of this voting bloc...
Time will tell, but I fully expect Clinton to GROSSLY underperform 12 numbers across the Rust Belt, while at the same Trump is going to vastly overperform.
Trump should not only win this election very handily in the popular and EC counts.. but he’ll take it by a larger margin than O got in 08.
The Rust Belt was always going to decide this election and the numbers are starting to prove it. Trump has to be above the MOF, the margin of fraud because everybody and their grandma knows the Dems are gonna cheat in every battleground state. When this nation has its back to the wall it always responds against all enemies domestic and foreign. We have both of those elements against us and now it’s game on. We’ll win this one folks. We have no choice.
Deer hunters need to vote.
Trump going to these states in the last couple of days when early voting has not happened has made it very hard for the left to do their voter fraud in those state, and now they are scrambling to defend those states.
I see they are doing more college campuses, and in MI to get young naive, don;t know the real world kids out to vote for her.
During this race, and as the final word now, the corrupt media and the corrupt pollsters and pundits have determined the following:
FOR HILLARY...highly-educated, professional, sophisticated, knowledgeable suburban women, highly-educated, successful men in suits with manicured fingernails.
FOR TRUMP...uneducated, pie-baking women with snotty-nosed kids and old station wagons, uneducated working stiffs with grease on their hands......plus gun-totin', Bible believin' rural neanderthals who are the dumbest of them all.
Do I have this right?
Which one is you?
Leni
Trump will win the following states (besides the Romney states, totalling 206 votes), without any doubt:
Ohio - 18
Florida - 29
Iowa - 6
Maine - 1
That brings him up to 260
If he wins any of the following, he’s the next POTUS:
1) Michigan - 16
2) Pennsylvania - 20
3) Virginia - 13
4) New Hampshire - 4 and Nevada - 6
5) Minnesota - 10
6) New Hampshire - 4 and either Colorado - 9 or New Mexico - 5 (the latter generates 269 EVs, throwing the election into the House - which means that Trump wins).
Also, there is 1 Washington state Dem Elector who has said that he will not vote for Hillary - so she actually needs 271. FYI, I am not holding my breath on that one, as I believe that if she has 269 that this guy and his family will be alternatively bribed MILLIONS or threatened...so even without this, Trump is looking pretty good.
With 6 separate pathways to get to either 269 or above, I don’t think that Hillary can win - and that’s without a groundswell for Trump similar to what Reagan had in 1980 (and I believe that this is present. I actually believe that Trump will take the following:
1) New Hampshire - 4
2) Nevada - 6
3) Michigan - 16
4) New Mexico - 5
5) Colorado - 9
That’ll give Trump an even 300 EVs, which is a comfortable cruise into the White House. I’d love to pick off Virginia and Minnesota, because it would not only put him at 323, but the entire center of the country except for IL and WI would be Trump territory.
By the way, if you want to have some fun with your own scenarios, go to http://www.270towin.com/ You can start with a variety of different scenarios by resetting the map. I started with the 2012 Actual.
We haint even redeemable !
I am a PH.D. with four college degrees, #1 bestselling author, film producer, voting Trump.
The political pundits are wrong...AGAIN! I have a master’s degree, drive flashy cars, during my working days had income many times greater than average, have traveled to 36 countries on 4 continents, but I am a Trump voter! Where did I go wrong?
I don’t know which states they’re including as ‘Midwest’, but the internals of the IBD/TIPP poll are showing a gigantic shift in that region over the last week in Trump’s favor.
>>The political pundits are wrong...AGAIN!<<
Actually, I think the pundits are right in one important respect. The blue collar vote is going to go heavily toward Trump, people who usually voted Dem in the past, or just never bothered to vote at all.
What those pundits are missing is the big picture. Traditional GOP voters are also going to vote for Trump en masse, people like you and me. Put the two groups together and watching the pundits squirming tomorrow night could be a real hoot.
What makes Wisconsin so different from rust belt? I think I have a good guess. Lots of the welfare crowd moved to WI from IL for bigger welfare checks and to escape Chicago crime.
Come on fellas (well, largely fellas, at least), you can do it and save your country!
As I have said for months... the rust belt/upper midwest firewall for dems is going to COLLAPSE... this belief, is and was the single biggest reason from day one, I believed and still do that Trump was the ONLY Republican who was going to beat Hillary on election day.
These are the states being most affected by the globalist policies, particularly in the working class towns that make up most of their geography. The decimation of these areas over the last 20 years is not as pronounced as Detroits in the 80s.. only because they are more spread out and not located in one urban center.. but the cumulative effects of these policies are even more devastating.
These folks may be registered D’s, but they are not social liberals.. they are union folks who worked hard their entire lives, did the right thing, went to Church on sunday, raised their kids, dedicated themselves to their communities and they have watch it all be systematically stolen from them... over the course of decades.... their party abandoned them, and didn’t care... and to add even more insult to injury that same party now asks them to show up and vote for someone they know didn’t get where they were by honest hard work, but by corruption, lying and self serving.......
They aren’t going to show up for her... oh sure Trump wont win the majority of the D voting bloc, but he’s going to win a hell of a lot of them. Any poll you see showing Hillary getting 90% support by registered democrats in these states is about to be proven abjectly wrong. Working class whites are the single biggest voting bloc Dems have... followed by AA... and Hillary is going to grossly underperform not only Obama but Kerry as well with both of them.... particularly in these states.
Fight hard, GOTV, don’t quit!!! But I see no way this traditional firewall in the north doesn’t come crashing down hard this cycle, and Trump coming up BIG here...
WI is a bit different, not quite MN... but a bit of those leanings.. However, if Trump doesn’t wind up with WI... (and I think honestly he will) I would blame it more of the GOPe/NeverTrump garbage back in the primaries for poisoning the electorate for the general over anything else.
However with that said... I am expecting to see that state red tomorrow night.
I’ve been saying this since the beginning, Trump’s going to take the rust belt... and do so BIG... I really think the only 2 states safe for HIllary here are IL and MN... I really expect Trump to take the rest... all of them. PA, OH, IN, IA, MI and WI....
I know the pundits and polls aren’t contemplating it... but that is what I have believed from day one, and still do. Hell due to the Bernie voters feeling screwed and dejected and not coming home to Hillary... there is a long shot chance she may not even get MN
I have only a cell phone. Someone calls me, and I don’t recognize the number, I don’t pick up.
I cannot believe, after all this country and its people have been through, that God will allow us to elect someone like Hillary Clinton.
My wife, nor I , nor anyone I know here in north east FL have been polled, and all of us are voting for Trump tomorrow or have voted.
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