Posted on 11/06/2016 7:32:58 AM PST by rb22982
...registered Democrats saw their total ballots slip from their same-day totals in 2012 (down 1.5 percent), registered Republicans are 13.4 percent ahead of their same day totals from 2012 while the big news continues to be the surge in registered unaffiliated voters casting ballots: they finished 41.2 percent ahead of their same day cumulative totals from 2012.
In reviewing the race of voters who have submitted absentee ballots, 71 percent have come from white voters, an increase of 18 percent over their same day totals from 2012, while 22 percent have come from black voters, a decrease of 9 percent from their same day totals from four years ago, and 'all other races' (including Asian, Indian American, multi-racial, and other races) are at 7 percent, with an increase of 51 percent over their 2012 same-day totals.
Early voting results vs 2012: Dems -15,809
Reps +124,896
Unaffiliated +239,798
140k net swing for Rep (125 minus -15k) is approx 3% of the vote. Add that to Romney's 2% win and you have a Trump lead of 5%. IF Trump wins indies by the same % in NC that Romney did, that would be an additional 36k net Trump votes or 0.8% of vote. Trump still looks like he's cruising to a 5-7% victory in NC unless day of voting is drastically different than 2012 or indies are going for HRC (the 8 polls I've seen have Trump winning Indies by 7% to 19% in NC with a lot of undecided).
Lots of good stuff all around to keep the trolls away for the rest of the election.
The folks so far have been very "fair and balanced and had several solid Trump supporters on with Mathews being the first to appear that has his head up Hilly's stinky butt.
Trey Gowdy was on explaining how we need an independent investigator with Lynch and her cronies recusing themselves if we are to regain any faith in the DOJ/system. He also explained that the Congress is not legally allowed to appoint a prosecutor or bring charges for this and they need the People to make themselves heard.
He said that Hillary will come in under a dark cloud (if the worst happens on Tuesday) and will not be allowed to do what she intends to do.
Many here pissed at him for not managing to sink her but I've always believed he did what he could legally do and is as frustrated as we are.
Plus Registered Democrats are not necessarily Clinton voters. Ever hear of Reagan Democrats? They’re back!
Don’t forget about the secret Dem votes for Trump,a 2% skew by most calculations
Reince said on stephy’s show this morning that Mitt was -450k in NC going into election day... and he still beat Obama.
Yes, and Trump will start with only -300k or so.
This is MY POINT ALL Dems are touting the fact that so many people stood in line in Nevada to vote for HELLARY, well I say those DEM voters were voting for Trump!!! These people are going to be SHOCKED Tuesday!!!! I mean HEADS will be EPLODING!!!!
They tout Nevada because they have nothing else to tout.
IA, CO, OH, FL, NC, AZ are all going Trump based on early votes.
Even Nevada is showing the same amount of swing if you normalize for their D registration advantage. And if you see that swing nationwide, Trump wins regardless of whether or not he gets NV.
yup
Indeed, and “Bernie Democrats” too. I don’t think there has ever been an election where the primary’s “loser” has been treated so badly, and whose supporters are so enraged at the “winner”.
Unfortunately, the reverse is also true. Not all registered Republicans will vote for Trump. :(
Trump was not my first choice. Far from it. But I would have crawled over broken glass to vote against Hillary. As it was, I just had to wait in line (I voted last week).
I am convinced that there are far more Never Hillary voters than there are Never Trump voters, plus the Never Trump voters are mostly staying home.
So is Tennessee’s record early voting. Course the blue counties are going the Witch. http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2016/nov/05/early-voter-numbers-top-tennessee-hamiltcount/396220/
I saw something on Twitter yesterday that helps to confirm that. A dem stating that all dems are not voting for Hillary because of how she treated Bernie.
In the 2012 NC election exit polls, Obama received 31% of the white vote. Whites made up 70% of the electorate. It looks like the percentage of whites voting has increased to 71% in the early voting.
Obama received 96% of the black vote in 2012. Blacks made up 23% of the electorate. So far the black early vote has decreased 9% from 2012.
Does anyone expect Hillary to do better than Obama in 2012 in NC? Romney won the state by 92,000 votes.
But we do know the number is far smaller, and likely embellished as Trump easily won NC and it isn’t known as a hotbed of NeverTrump types.
Bush did worse than Reagan, and that was after a near clean sweep by them in 1984.
That win in 84 was just a big enough cushion for 88, that Bush had room to play with.
Obama did far worse in 12 than 08, Hillary has no cushion for error.
Pissed off Bernie voters are just a small fraction of Hillary’s Democrat voter problems.
Bernie was never supposed to win any primaries. He was supposed to be the crazy fringe candidate who made Hillary look good on the way to her coronation. The fact that a 70 year old Socialist Senator (who had never before run for office as a Democrat), from a small, almost entirely white state came close to winning the Democrat nomination just speaks to how many Democrats were looking for anyone other than Hillary to vote for.
Now combine that with all of the crossover Democrats who WANT to vote for Trump.
I will be surprised if Hillary gets more than 80% of the registered Democrat votes, 40% of the independents, and 2% of registered Republicans.
Bill Mitchell Retweeted Stacey
My pollster buddy says his Dem contacts in NC are telling him Trump has won.
Stacey @sapiosteele
Pro clinton panelists at Inside Politics on CNN said that NC Dems are conceding Trump may already be winning NC.
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