USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 11/05 -- Trump + 1.1 , Clinton - .8

USC/LA Times ^ | November 5, 2016 | USC/LA Times

[Tuxedo]

Weather update: Possible rain in lower Michigan and Northern Ohio. Also across southern states (not Florida). Nothing severe expected and no snow anticipated anywhere. May impact MI and OH some, along with IL and IN. Overall, minimal impacts for Election Day. Wish it would be pouring in Philly. Hopefully that strike is still on.

[going hot]

This is probably his ceiling, and he will soon collapse.

/s

[Rokke]

For the last several weeks this poll has been a leading indicator of momentum for Trump in other polls. Both up and down. Obviously, this latest result is a good omen going into the last days of the race.

[Nifster]

This poll is eerily similar to the Carter Reagan polling

Trump Train

Get Out The Vote

[Breyean]

Here in AZ, SOMEONE is enthusiastic about voting because they showed on the local news last night overhead shots of people lined up to vote in several cities in the area. They said lines were 2-5 hours long!

I have never seen reporting of anything like this during any election here, and it’s not even election day yet!

I mean, early voting, sure, but on a Friday night? ALL Friday night?

Sure hope they were Trump people waiting out there.

[StAnDeliver]

"I don't know if it is Dem +7 or not. Not sure why the 4 person race should matter... or are you saying they are not allowing the respondents to choose Johnson or Stein? I just assumed the remaining 9% unaccounted for chose Johnson, Stein, or remained undecided which is pretty in line with other polls."

Poll internals at #29

If you like polls/methodology, it's interesting.

[simpson96]

Great news! THANKS!!

[Luircin]

It was awhile back. That’s why I added the caveat, because while I found them earlier, I can’t seem to find it now. Maybe someone else on the thread knows.

[Pollster1]

The timing of Trump pulling away is telling. If Trump wins, I’m giving our local FBI office the largest acceptable pizza voucher to thank them for keeping America safe.

[mikhailovich]

We need to win particular states. Polls are one thing, but we need STATES.

[cherry]

why do these polls change so significantly over 24 hrs?....its crazy....

[FreeReign]

So, looking at yesterday, H gains a lot as one group drops off and is resurveyed which the next day gives a big T boost.

If it's a rolling average then groups don't "drop off", they get updated.

[DaveA37]

with the Clinton’s there is ALWAYS a way, they invent them.

[KC_Lion]

I think Trump’s Iowa Class battleships have come within striking distance of Hillary shores and opened up with their big 16s.

That officially been stolen by me, Thanks Gaffer!

=^.^=

[heights]

“why do these polls change so significantly over 24 hrs?....its crazy....”

Maybe when people see her Manager hanging with Satanist, it might have an effect.

[monkeyshine]

See post #29 from StAnDeliver.
Also a pdf to internals here: Weighting Procedures but it may be too complicated, lots of math equations.