Posted on 11/03/2016 7:23:39 AM PDT by Henchster
Today, Rasmussen put this out:
The latest national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Trump leading Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton 45% to 42%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has four percent (4%) support, and Green Party hopeful Jill Stein picks up just one percent (1%). Two percent (2%) like another candidate, and four percent (4%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
They then went on to say:
Eighty-eight percent (88%) of voters say they are now certain how they will vote. Among these voters, Trump has a 10-point lead over Clinton – 53% to 43%. Johnson gets two percent (2%) and Stein one percent (1%). This is the first time any candidate has crossed the 50% mark. Among those who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 36%, Trump 36%, Johnson 22% and Stein six percent (6%).
Wait a minute! This doesn't compute, how can Trump only have 45% when he has 53% of 88%? Let's use their raw data to work back to their summary:
| Candidate | 88% | Certain | 12% | NotCer | Total |
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| Trump | 53 | 46.64 | 36 | 4.32 | 50.96 |
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| Clinton | 43 | 37.84 | 36 | 4.32 | 42.16 |
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| Johnson | 2 | 1.76 | 22 | 2.64 | 4.40 |
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| Stein | 1 | .88 | 6 | .72 | 1.60 |
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Ah-HA! Trump actually has 51% of the vote - Rasmussen is tweaking Trump's number down to keep the race interesting!
Here's the good news:
Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters.
The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 31 and November 1-2, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
This is a small margin of error poll! Trump is busting into the landslide zone, but Rasmussen doesn't want to depress Clinton voters! Not only that, but it was taken over the last three days, so it is lagging on Hillary's freefall in support.
I’ll have a pre-celebration beer today. But I’ll really tie one on Tuesday night!
Pollsters do have an economic incentive to keep the race tight, for sure. Who cares about polling (and who will pay for it) if the result is all but certain?
Somebody pinch me ... I’m not buyin it yet ...
Good comment. The same also applies to news stories. Goota keep the peeps watching don’t you know.
Trump has been ahead in many states for a while now, and by a lot. He is clearly in the lead.
These pollsters lie.
They must be punished for their lies.
Ping-a-ling
Buy it, the Wikileaks FBI effect is hitting hard.
53% 0f 88% is 46.64% as is stated in the breakdown.
I wonder if Hillary is hearing from any of the people who gave her millions of dollars to guarantee they would have the ear of a President when they dialed her bat phone.
I’m starting to get a dangerously optimistic feeling!
Yes indeed!!!
Im taking Wednesday off... hehe
Bump
I think I trust the National Enquirer more than the liberals that are now running Rasmussen.
Agreed. I've been around a long time. Nothing is certain with the Clintons while they are still above ground.
I hope I live long enough to see both of those oxygen wasters depart the mortal plane.
This going to be a blow out. I’ll be drunk posting on election night by 7:00PM. :-)
Rasmussen says Trump total is 45% but Trump has almost 47% of just the certain voters. When you add in the uncertain voters, Trump is at 51%.
Rasmussen says Hillary is at 42%. But she only has 38% of certain voters and needs the uncertain voters to get her to 42%.
The dam is breaking. Pat Caddell said it would start breaking yesterday.
Even if Trump were to lose 100% of those who were NOT certain of how they’d vote, he’d get 46%, which of course is more than 45%.
I believe Rasmussen has no interest in underscoring Republicans. Let’s say I know people who have been clients of Rasmussen and their pollster, Pulse Opinions.
Possible mere errors by Rasmussen:
Did he mean that Trump leads in the third day of the three-day rolling average by ten points?
Did he mean to say that Trump leads by ten among those who have not voted yet but are certain how they will vote, yet mistakenly include those who have already voted in the 88%? (Dems do much better among early voters.)
Possible motives for Rasmussen for actual fibbing:
They respect other pollsters not showing such a huge Trump lead and see their results as outliers, so they’re hedging their bets; they’d rather risk betting low on Trump but being correct than risk betting way high on Trump and looking like nothing more than hackish Republican propagandists.
They got burnt real bad in 2012, and want to be able to subtly walk back towards predicting a tie if there are bad signs.
Their raw data shows a 10-point lead, but they have other turnout models which suggest that the raw data is inaccurate.
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